水力压裂法会诱发地震吗？

    埃尔斯沃思最近更新了去年7月发表在《科学》杂志(Science)上的一篇论文，他和两位同事在文中指出，2010年至2013年，美国中部和东部爆发里氏3.0以上地震的频率已经倍增至每年100次左右，与此同时，需要处置井的水力压裂技术得到了广泛使用。而在1970至2000年，年均地震次数仅为20次。

    还有几项案例也将处置井列为疑犯，而且经过了仔细的研究。关停处置井，甚至只是减少注入地下的水量后，地震已经终止。

    阿斯莱周围地区遭受的系列地震达到两位数（《沃斯堡明星电讯报》近期一个头版标题写道，“得克萨斯州北部又一次发生地震”）之后，布伦德里特说服铁路委员会于2月2日在当地一家高中召开一场市政厅会议。大约900位愤怒的居民出席了这场会议，强烈要求立即关闭注水井。

    铁路委员会委员戴维•波特拒绝回答问题，坚称他来这里只是想听听大家的看法，会场内顿时响起一片嘘声。布伦德里特说：“这种态度从一开始就惹恼了每一个人。”

    长期以来，这个委员会一直认为它既是能源业的监管者，同时又是它的推动者。委员们时常凭借石油和天然气企业的巨额资金支持当选。波特的官方简介形容他是一位注册会计师，在得克萨斯州西部城市米德兰经营一家成功的事务所，“为石油和天然气生产商、特许权所有者、油田服务公司，以及其他小企业和个人提供会计和税务服务。”

    “铁路委员会非常关心，而且正在积极参与此事，但我们的行动必须建立在严谨的科学和已经得到证明的事实之上，而不是一些报刊文章和博客的猜测，”他在开场白中这样说道。

    据当地媒体报道，两个小时后，波特结束了会议，在州警察的护送下从后门狂奔而去。铁路委员会随后宣布，它将寻求更多的数据，同时聘请一位内部的地震专家。（波特的助手说他不愿进一步发表评论。）

    上周二，那些不愿意继续等下去的居民乘车前往奥斯汀，要求立即采取行动。

    布伦德里特拒绝加入这趟巴士之旅。他认为，这些地震已经显示出一个清晰的模式，但他承认，还需要做更进一步的研究。

    “我是石油和天然气业的支持者，”他说。“当我们打开电灯开关的时候，我们总希望这些灯亮着。能源不会从天上掉下来。只不过，生产能源的方式或者地方有时候不对头。”在巴涅特页岩区，向钻探公司出租土地给许多居民带来了不菲的收入，布伦德里特也是受益者之一。

    他并不抱怨钻探公司要求更多的证据。“人人都想要科学的证据，这是常识。他们不想陷入每当大家高喊狼来了的时候就必须关停所有处置井的境地。”

    但他表示，等到证据最终到来（布伦德里特预期在一两个月内）的时候，处置井运营商需要迅速作出反应。“如果我们获得的数据确实把注水井和地震联系在一起，而他们没有任何反应，那我们只有拿出干草叉和火把了。”（财富中文网）

    译者：叶寒

    In a recent update to an article Ellsworth published last July in Science (paywall), he and two colleagues noted that that the rate of quakes (3.0 and larger) in the central and eastern U.S. has multiplied to about a hundred a year during 2010-2013, coinciding with the increase in fracking, which requires disposal wells. This compares with an average of 20 quakes a year from 1970-2000.

    In closely studied cases where disposal wells are the suspected culprit, a shutdown of the well -- or even a reduction in the rate of water being injected underground -- has ended the earthquakes.

    After the string of tremors around Azle hit double figures -- "Another day, another earthquake in North Texas," read one recent Star-Telegram headline -- Brundrett persuaded the Railroad Commission to convene a town hall meeting at the local high school on Jan. 2. About 900 angry residents showed up, calling for the injection wells to be shut down immediately.

    They booed and hooted as Commissioner David Porter refused to respond to questions, insisting that he was there only to listen. "That pissed off everybody from the beginning," says Brundrett.

    The Texas commission has long viewed its relationship with the energy industry as equal parts promoter and regulator. Commissioners regularly win election with heavy financial support from oil and gas interests. Porter's official biography describes him as a CPA who built a successful practice in Midland, "providing accounting and tax services to oil and gas producers, royalty owners, oil field service companies, and other small businesses and individuals."

    "The Railroad Commission is concerned and involved, but we have to base our actions on sound science and proven facts, not speculation that appears in some newspaper articles and some blogs," he told the crowd in an opening statement.

    After two hours, local media reported, Porter ended the meeting, then bolted out the back door, escorted by state troopers. Afterward, the Railroad Commission announced it would be seeking more data on the problem and hire an in-house earthquake expert. (Porter's staff said he would have no further comment.)

    Those unwilling to wait rode down to Austin on Tuesday to demand immediate action.

    Brundrett declined to join the bus trip. He believes the quakes show a clear pattern, but acknowledges the need for additional study.

    "I'm pro oil and gas," he says. "When people turn their light switch on, they want their lights to come on. The energy has to come from somewhere. It's just sometimes being done in a bad way or in the wrong place." Like many residents in the Barnett Shale region, Brundrett has received income from leasing land to drilling companies.

    He doesn't blame the drillers for demanding more proof. "It's common sense that everyone wants the scientific evidence. They don't want to get into the position of having to shut down everything any time everybody cries wolf."

    But when it arrives -- within a month or two, Brundrett expects -- he says the disposal-well operators will need to respond quickly. "If we get the data, and it does indeed link the injection wells to earthquakes, and they fail to do anything, then it's time to get out the pitchforks and torches."