为什么说比特币会失败？

    一个悖论或将导致比特币分崩离析。为了成为一种真正的货币，比特币需要得到各国央行广泛接受（中国已经拒绝了这种电子货币，芬兰则将它列入了商品范畴），同时接受监管以稳定其价值，但这样做势必将摧毁比特币最具吸引力的特征：私密性，以及用户在银行体系之外直接交易的能力。比特币的地位将遭受重创，最终会沦为另一种数字钱包，而很难成为游戏规则的颠覆者。面对更加传统的支付系统时，就连备受吹捧的谷歌钱包(Google Wallet )最终也陷入了困境，难以形成气候。

    那么，鉴于所有这一切，比特币的价格为什么依然坚挺呢？这固然跟市场对一种颠覆性新技术自然流露的乐观情绪有些关系，但最主要的原因在于，它是包括安德森•霍洛维茨风投公司(Andreessen Horowitz)在内的投资者大肆炒作的结果。其他打算涉足比特币交易的投资者应该充分考虑这一点，同时也应该记住，曾几何时，宠物零售网站Pets.com似乎也代表着未来的潮涌方向。（财富中文网）

    本文作者是政治和商业评论家。他曾在知名投行Lazard Freres和Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein就职，著有《杀死华尔街》一书。

    译者：叶寒

    And there's the paradox that could be bitcoin's downfall. In order for it to become a bona fide currency, it needs widespread acceptance from central banks (including in places like China, which has rejected it, and Finland, which has designated it a commodity) and regulation to stabilize its value, but that would destroy the very aspects that make bitcoin so attractive: privacy and the ability of users to transact directly and outside of the banking system. This would relegate it to the status of just another digital wallet, which is hardly a game-changer. Even the much-touted Google Wallet has ultimately struggled to take off against more traditional payment systems.

    So given all this, why is the price of bitcoin so high? Some of it is a natural optimism about a disruptive new technology, but mostly it is hype created by investors, including venture capital firm, Andreessen Horowitz. Other investors thinking of dipping their toe in these waters should take that into consideration and also remember that at one time Pets.com seemed like the wave of the future.

    Sanjay Sanghoee is a political and business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner, as well as at hedge fund Ramius. He is author of Merger and Killing Wall Street.