美国磁悬浮列车项目差钱差技术

    如果没有拥挤的日本沿海地区那种令人难以置信的人口密度，以及这种密度蕴含的收入前景，这类项目往往需要政府补贴。日本中央铁路公司最近宣布将在没有纳税人帮助的情况下，建造东京至大阪的磁悬浮线路。这家公司将承担第一站的建设成本，建成后，磁悬浮列车的时速将达到311英里（约合500公里），从东京到名古屋只需40分钟。分析师表示，这条穿越地球上人口最稠密地区的线路将会有巨大的需求和投资回报，尽管该项目需要经历相当长的酝酿期——东京至大阪的“中央线”要到2045年才能全线开通。

    “我们预计，中央线磁悬浮项目的总成本将高达9.5万亿日元（约合930亿美元）。至2050年，这条线路很可能将产生不高于这个十年开始时的经常性盈利，”麦格理集团( Macquarie Group)常驻东京的运输分析师尼古拉斯•坎宁安说。

    尽管东北磁悬浮公司尽了最大努力，但如果没有日本人或财大气粗的投资者的鼎力支持，他们还将面临艰难险阻。东北磁悬浮公司声称，到目前为止，它已经从美国私人投资者手中募集了4,000万美元资金。可持续交通杂志EVworld.com在一篇评论中表示，归根结底，这个项目能否启动将取决于能够募集多少资金。“美国是否应该进行如此规模的投资？从表面看，答案或许是否定的，至少在波士顿至华盛顿特区走廊拥有相当于日本或中国那样的人口密度（唯如此，这种成本开支才是合理的）之前是这样，”这篇评论这样写道。“我们还是先让美国铁路公司的阿西乐特快列车充分发挥其时速150英里的潜力，而不是目前的80英里时速。然后再考虑像高铁这种更符合21世纪潮流的交通方式吧。”（财富中文网）

    译者：叶寒

    Without the mind-boggling population density found in the crowded Japanese coasts and the revenues that promises, projects like these often require government subsidies. JR Central recently announced that it would be building its Tokyo to Osaka maglev service without taxpayers' help. JR Central is privately funding the construction cost of the first leg, which will operate at 311 miles per hour to connect Tokyo and Nagoya in just 40 minutes. Passing along the most densely populated crust of Earth ever traversed by man, there will be massive demand and returns on investment, say analysts, despite the project's long gestation period. The Osaka Tokyo "Chuo Line" won't open till 2045.

    "The Chuo Linear maglev project, which we estimate at Y9.5 trillion total cost (around $93 billion) will likely result in a 2050 recurring profit no higher than the start of this decade," says Nicholas Cunningham, a Tokyo-based transport analyst at Macquarie Group.

    Despite their best efforts, TNEM has a steep hill to climb without serious backing from the Japanese or deep-pocketed investors. So far, TNEM says it has raised $40 million from private U.S. investors. It will all come down to the numbers, says an editorial in sustainable transportation magazine EVworld.com. "Should this nation [the U.S.] make this level of investment? On the face of it, the answer is probably no, at least not until those mega-regions like the Boston-D.C. corridor, have population densities comparable to Japan or China, which could justify the expense," says the editorial. "First, we need to get Amtrak's Acela running at its full potential of 150 mph, instead of it current average of 80 mph. Then let's consider something more 21st century like high-speed rail."