比特币能颠覆汇兑市场吗？

    今年2月6日，位于旧金山、提供比特币服务的初创公司ZipZap宣布将在英国的28,000家门店提供现金兑换比特币服务，其中包括Spar和乐购Express（Tesco Express）这样无所不在的便利店。购买比特币的顾客需要将ZipZap账户与比特币钱包关联，然后把一个可以扫描的条形码打印或加载到智能手机里，带进ZipZap的门店。柜员会扫描条形码，之后接受顾客的现金支付。几分钟内，比特币便会通过ZipZap兑换比特币的合作伙伴打入顾客的账户中。这项服务目前收费3.95英镑（约6.50美元），顾客最多可以购买价值300英镑（500美元）的比特币。

    这项服务完善了近期Overstock.com和Tigerdirect.com这类大型网络零售商接受比特币支付的行动——目前，至少在英国，非专业人士也可以轻易地购买和消费比特币了。不过，ZipZap的最终目标不仅在于帮助发达国家的人民购买比特币，而是希望在全球范围内提供比特币与现金互相兑换的服务。ZipZap拉美地区经理杰奎因•莫雷诺说：“我们正走在提高品牌信誉度的道路上，至少是在现金兑换比特币这一流程上。我们随后会启动比特币兑回现金的流程。”ZipZap首席执行官艾伦•萨法西说：“（买方）获得了比特币后就可以在网上使用，也可以把它送给在世界各地的家人。”通过在全球范围内提供近乎免费的比特币兑换渠道，ZipZap有望打造一个与西联国际汇款公司（Western Union）和速汇金（Moneygram）抗衡的汇兑系统。

    比特币的拥趸们常声称，汇兑行业从外来务工人员和未能得到充分金融服务的人群那里得到了近乎垄断性的利润。就这点而言，萨法西显然身负重任。他引用的数据显示：全球每年汇兑额超过5,000亿，手续费平均为9%，最高达到了25%甚至更高。他说：“可以通过减少穷人的汇兑费用，帮助他们摆脱贫困。”

    不过，对于那些常被引用的收费标准是否准确，比特币系统又是否具备改变汇兑市场的潜力，有人提出了质疑。研究机构美洲对话（Inter-American Dialogue）中专门从事汇兑研究的高级研究员曼纽尔•奥罗斯科说：“我知道非洲的每一个汇兑点，他们在胡说八道。把钱汇到非洲的手续费大概是6%。”西联汇款的收费更高——通过快速在线搜索，我们发现把500美元从佛罗里达汇到肯尼亚，需要支付39美元，西联汇款还要收取超过3%的汇率差，总计约11%的手续费。

    奥罗斯科和其他人表示，汇兑服务在满足“反洗钱”（Anti Money Laundering，AML）和“客户身份验证”（Know Your Customer，KYC）的规定上，需要投入大量难以削减的成本。实际上，“执行标准已经越来越严格”，隶属于西联汇款的Appleseed Fund的投资组合经理乔什•施特劳斯表示。他说：“为了满足规定，（西联汇款）2014年的利润将会降低大约8%，”不过也会让竞争对手出局。施特劳斯表示，一旦比特币的竞争对手也需要遵从同样的标准（目前这项标准仅适用于比特币换成现金的情况），他们就几乎得不到价格优势。将比特币作为汇兑媒介还存在其他的风险和成本，比如甚至在短暂的转让过程中，持有的比特币汇率也容易出现较大的汇率波动；比特币的开发系统也至少存在欺诈的风险，安全等级也不够高。综上所述，奥罗斯科对市场将出现大规模变动的论调持怀疑态度。“有人认为目前汇兑的成本过高，而类似比特币的模式可以降低成本。我认为这种观点并不准确。”

    西联汇款的首席信息官大卫•汤普森关注了现有服务商在合规性和安全性上的优势。“一个符合法律规定的系统……需要下大力气进行管理。它需要拥有能够符合规定的网络。”比特币使用了对等网络达成的密码协议模型来保证在网络上交易的安全性，而西联汇款则完全拥有和掌控着一个专门架构的全球网络。西联汇款还有专门的零售店，而ZipZap的项目则是通过与现有的零售金融业的服务商合作来开展的。根据杰奎因•莫雷诺的说法，比起拥有专用设施的公司，ZipZap此举能以更低的成本在更多地点提供他们的服务。

    不过，汤普森确实曾经说过：“一旦我们了解到顾客确实需求这项服务（比特币汇兑），我们会正视它，同时把它作为新货币纳入我们的服务范围。”他表示西联汇款有能力“运营任何种类的货币……我们可以把它（比特币）通过我们的网络转变为可以接受的实体。”他没有详细说明这是否会借助某些代币或衍生系统实现，因为比特币本身只能通过比特币网络进行转移。汤普森拒绝在本周二的盈利电话会议之前就西联汇款可能的收费趋势发表观点。

    On Feb. 6, San Francisco-based Bitcoin services startup ZipZap announced the launch of cash-for-bitcoin services at 28,000 retail locations in the U.K., including omnipresent convenience stores such as Spar and Tesco Express. To buy bitcoin, buyers connect a ZipZap account to their bitcoin wallet, then print or load to their smartphone a scannable barcode that they take to a ZipZap affiliate location. A clerk scans their barcode, then accepts their cash payment. Bitcoins arrive in their wallets within minutes through one of ZipZap's partner bitcoin exchanges. Fees for the service are currently £3.95 (about $6.50), with a maximum £300.00 ($500) worth of bitcoin purchased.

    The service provides a complement to recent adoption by major online retailers likeOverstock.com (OSTK) and Tigerdirect.com -- it is now, at least in the U.K., as easy for the non-tech savvy to buy bitcoin as it is to spend it. ZipZap's ultimate goal, though, is not just to help curious first-worlders buy bitcoin, but to provide both cash-in and cash-out capabilities globally. "We're in the process of making our brand trustable, at least for the cash-in process, and then we will launch the cash-out process," says Joaquin Moreno, ZipZap's regional manager for Latin America. "Once [buyers] get the bitcoin, they can use them online, or they can send it to their family around the world," says ZipZap CEO Alan Safahi. By providing on- and off-ramps to the global, nearly-free Bitcoin network, ZipZap would create a remittance system to rival those of Western Union and Moneygram.

    Bitcoin advocates regularly call out the remittance industry as a near-monopoly profiting from migrant workers and the underbanked. Safahi is clearly a man on a mission in this regard: "You help the poor get out of poverty by reducing their remittance cost," he says, citing global remittance volume of more than a half trillion dollars a year, and fees that average 9% and peak at 25% or more.

    But some question the accuracy of those often-cited fee rates, and the potential of bitcoin systems to change the remittance landscape. "I know every single location where you can pay in Africa, and that's nonsense. The cost of sending money to Africa is about 6%," says Manuel Orozco, senior fellow specializing in remittances at the Inter-American Dialogue. Western Union's fees are higher -- a quick online search shows that sending $500 from Florida for pickup in cash in Kenya costs $39, plus a more than 3% exchange rate spread taken by Western Union (WU), for a rate of about 11%.

    Orozco and others cite compliance with Anti Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) regulations as a large irreducible cost of remittance service. In fact, "regulatory compliance is spiking," says Josh Strauss, Portfolio Manager of the Appleseed Fund, which is long on Western Union. "Compliance will squeeze [Western Union's] 2014 profits by something like 8%," but will also keep competitors out, he says. Strauss says that once bitcoin-based competitors have to meet the same compliance standards, which now only affect bitcoin at the point where it is exchanged for cash, they will have little if any price advantage. There are other risks and costs to bitcoin as a remittance vehicle, including that of holding highly volatile bitcoin even briefly in the process of a transfer, and at least the perceived risk of fraud and lax security in a developing system. Ultimately, Orozco is skeptical of claims about major disruption. "There is an assumption that money transfers today are very expensive, and that a model like bitcoin will lower the cost. I think that assumption is inaccurate."

    Western Union CIO David Thompson focuses on established players' compliance and security advantages. "A compliant system ... requires a lot of control. It requires a network that is enabled for compliance." While bitcoin uses a peer-to-peer cryptographic model to ensure the security of transactions over the internet, Western Union fully owns and controls a global network of dedicated wires. It also has dedicated retail outlets, while ZipZap projects are operating through partnerships with existing retail financial servicers. According to Joaquin Moreno, this will allow ZipZap to offer its service in more locations for a lower cost than companies with dedicated infrastructure.

    Thompson did state that "when we get to the point where customers are asking for this service [bitcoin remittance], we would look at it as enabling yet another currency." He says the Western Union network is capable of "movement of any currency type ... We can move [bitcoin] across our wires to the receiving entity." He did not specify whether this might function through some sort of token or derivatives system, since bitcoin proper can only be transferred over the Bitcoin network. Thompson was unable to comment on possible trends in Western Union's pricing in advance of Tuesday's earnings call.