比特币能颠覆汇兑市场吗？

    艾伦•萨法西认为现有的汇兑服务提供商自鸣得意、效率低下，对通过可用的在线识别和合规手段来降低成本置若罔闻。“我在大概一年前去了趟西联汇款。整张申请单都需要手工填写，花了我10分钟时间，然后柜台后面的女士又花了10分钟时间把信息输入电脑。我为什么不自己在电脑上打好了再过去呢？”他还问道：“为什么西联汇款或速汇金（不）在第一次交易之后给你打个折呢？”，因为交易成功这本身就说明已经满足基本法律规定了。ZipZap已经开始采用这些方法——它的所有交易也都符合相关的英国法律。萨法西说：“不要让人耍了，说满足规定需要花很多钱，这都是骗人的。”国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）对此表示赞同，并在一份报告中指出：“缺乏透明度”是全球范围内汇兑价格居高不下的主要原因。

    ZipZap希望以类似现金兑换比特币的收费提供比特币兑换现金的服务，这就意味着比起西联汇款11%的价位，佛罗里达到肯尼亚的汇兑只需要大约3%的手续费。萨法西提醒说：“这不会在一夜之间就发生，”但这种情况会改变汇兑相关领域的经济情况——并给现有的汇兑服务提供商带来巨大的挑战。至于ZipZap自身如何通过这些交易实现盈利，给员工开工资，萨法西推测，他的公司和类似的服务提供商也许最终会像某些网游一样，采用“免费+增值”模式，“给全球各地想要买卖比特币的用户提供免费服务，同时你也出售一些用户愿意购买的附加服务。”最后，他豪情万丈地说：“ZipZap会找到其他方法来盈利，绝不会剥削大众。”

    然而，实际上，萨法西伟大的长期构想也许会是导致他破产的一个因素。它就是一个甚至没有必要将比特币兑换成现金的世界。比如，他说：“85%的汇兑实际上是账单支付。会有一些让人们使用比特币付款的服务在网上涌现。”任何地方的人都能以低廉的价格给其他任何人汇款。同样的情况也许最终会发生在商品上，比特币钱包服务商KryptoKit的安东尼•迪•约里奥说：“等到越来越多的商家开始接受（比特币），你就不用把它兑换成本地货币了。”一旦现金从这个等式中消失，从一个比特币钱包到另一个的全球汇兑就可以在几分钟内完成，花费也是微乎其微。

    Appleseed的施特劳斯的预言则比较悲观：政府会对比特币进行管制，它的功能将不复存在。“中国的反应就是我认为各国政府未来将会采取的行动。”中国已经禁止银行开展现金兑换比特币的交易。“比特币能够让人绕开所有的反洗钱法律……因此政府不可能给它亮绿灯。”

    政府如果真刀真枪地开始制裁比特币，对萨法西来说则是一场灾难，不仅是作为一个商人，而是作为一名世界公民。他说：“有60亿人马上就可以从比特币中获益。我们需要专注于确保比特币的繁荣发展，获得成功，让人们摆脱贫困。”（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    Alan Sahafi accuses established remittance players of complacency and inefficiency, ignoring cost savings of available online identification and compliance methods. "I went to a Western Union place a year or so ago. I had to write the entire application by hand, and it took me 10 minutes, and it took the lady behind the counter another 10 minutes to type it up. Why wasn't I doing that on my computer before I went there?" Further, he asks, "why [don't] Western Union or Moneygram offer you a discount after your first transaction?", after which basic compliance is fulfilled. ZipZap is already using those methods -- all of its transactions meet relevant U.K. regulations. "Don't let people fool you that this thing costs a lot of money," says Safahi. "It's just smoke and mirrors." The International Monetary Fund agrees, saying in a report that "lack of transparency" is a major reason for high remittance costs worldwide.

    ZipZap expects to offer cash-out fees similar to those for cash-in, meaning that the Florida-to-Kenya transaction would cost about 3% to Western Union's 11%. "It's not going to happen overnight," Safahi warns, but that scenario would transform economies dependent on remittances -- and present a huge challenge to existing providers. As for how ZipZap itself will make money on these transactions and still pay agents, Safahi speculates that his and similar services may ultimately operate on a "freemium" model similar to some online games, "where you provide free service to anyone anywhere who wants to buy and sell bitcoin, and you sell additional services that people are willing to pay for." Ultimately, he says with passion, "ZipZap will find other ways to make money than gouging people."

    In fact, though, Safahi's greatest long-term dream seems to be one that would put him out of business -- a world where cashing out of bitcoin isn't even necessary. For instance, he says, "85% of remittance is basically bill payment. There are services coming online that will let people pay bills with bitcoin," which could be done from any locale to any other very cheaply. The same may eventually go for goods: "When you have more and more merchants accepting [bitcoin], you wouldn't have to be converting it back to local currencies," says Anthony Di Iorio of KryptoKit, a bitcoin wallet service. Once cash is removed from the equation, global remittances, from one bitcoin wallet to another, could be executed in minutes and cost tiny fractions of a percent.

    Appleseed's Strauss predicts a darker future, in which governments regulate bitcoin's functionality out of existence. "The Chinese came out with what I would expect governments to do going forward," banning banks from allowing cash-for-bitcoin transactions. "Bitcoin allows for avoidance of all AML laws ... There's no way governments are going to allow it."

    A true government crackdown on bitcoin would be disastrous for Safahi, not just as a businessman, but as a global citizen. "There are 6 billion people who can benefit from bitcoin immediately," he says. "We need to be focused on making sure bitcoin thrives, and helping it grow and be successful and bring people out of poverty."