中国力量引领全球4K电视机市场

    近来，电视机的出货量和销售量低迷依旧。根据市场研究公司TrendForce的数据，今年1月，全球平板电视的出货量仅有6,507万台，较上个月下跌了12%。

    电视机产业的亮点是什么呢？这个亮点是，名为“4K”的下一代显示技术——也被称为“超高清晰度电视”（Ultra-HDTV）或“超高画质”（UHD）——预计将在2014年蓬勃发展。使用这种技术的屏幕分辨率将达到以前的四倍。不过引领这个潮流的国家却并不是美国，而是中国。

    市场研究公司NPD集团（NPD Group）的DisplaySearch估计，今年中国将在4K电视机市场上占据78%的份额。这个比例比起2013年的87%已经有所下滑，但仍然是世界其他地区之和的三倍。即便其他地区现在开始追赶，中国依然会在明年的4K电视出货量上保持领先地位。

    NPD DisplaySearch全球电视产业调研总监保罗•盖格南告诉《财富》杂志：“其他国家的4K电视市场也会有所增长。大部分地区在2014年都会有两位数的年增长率。”

    盖格南表示，4K电视之所以能够在中国蓬勃发展，主要原因是中国的消费水平得到了迅速提升。他说：“实际上，中国有两类消费者在购买电视机。一种是农村地区可能还没有电视机的人，另一种是可能是城市里一些希望拥有两台平板电视的小康家庭。与美国相比，中国城市市场更换电视机的速度要快得多。”

    在美国，由于4K电视价格高昂，因此还处在公众接受的初期阶段。但在中国，4K电视市场实际上已经变成了大众市场。

    市场研究公司The Diffusion Group显示技术资深分析师乔尔•艾斯派林说：“有几个因素导致了这种现象。中国的视频市场年轻得多，所以装机基数较小。而在美国和西欧，电视市场已经非常饱和，如今人们购买新电视往往只是为了换掉旧的。”

    中国制造商已经意识到了这一点。以往，他们最新、最先进的电视型号可能都会推向北美和西欧的发达国家市场。而如今，包括TCL和海信（Hisense）在内的中国电视制造商开始乐于控制国内市场。海信美国区的营销副总裁乔纳森•弗兰克说：“从全球范围来看，中国对4K电视的销售至关重要。我们发现，4K电视在中国的接受程度最高，发展速度最快。同时，中国也有着更多现成的4K视频内容，这反过来也促进了电视的销量。”

    弗兰克表示，在海信的公司战略中，中国将永远占有首要地位，而美国则紧随其后。它意味着中国制造商也许能够压低这项昂贵技术的价格，从而加快推动步伐，使它在发达国家市场进入主流。弗兰克强调：“海信一直支持‘可实现的技术’。话虽如此，由于4K是一项相对较新的技术，我们没有理由现在就展开‘挤压利润的竞争’。”

    如今在美国，4K电视机的价格是普通高清电视的三到四倍。但在中国，4K电视的价格只高出了30%。盖格南说：“4K电视机的制造成本并未达到普通电视的四倍。所以目前制造商有能力降低价格。我们现在发现，顶级品牌有更多特色功能，不过这种新型电视价格昂贵，给制造商带来了高额利润。”这意味着制造商的零售价很可能会下跌。

    Lately, shipments and sales of televisions are about as flat as the sets. According to the market research firm TrendForce, panel shipments for TVs amounted to just 65.07 million units in January, dropping 12% month-to-month.

    The one bright side for the industry? Next-generation display technology called 4K -- it's also known as Ultra-HDTV or UHD -- is poised to take off in 2014, bringing four times the resolution to the screen. But it isn't America that is leading the way.

    It's China.

    NPD Group's DisplaySearch forecast that China will account for 78% of the 4K TV market, which is actually down from an 87% share in 2013. In 2014, China will lead all other regions combined by a factor of three. Even as other regions begin catch-up, China will remain the leading region for 4K TV shipments next year.

    "There is going to be growth in the rest of the market, but the Chinese growth dwarfs everything else," Paul Gagnon, director for global TV research at NPD DisplaySearch, told Fortune. "Most regions are seeing double-digit growth in 2014 over 2013."

    The primary driver is the rapid consumerization underway in the country, Gagnon said. "There are actually two groups of TV buyers in China," he said. "There is the rural region where people might not even have a TV, and then there are the well-to-do urban households where they might own two flat panel TVs. That urban market is now replacing the TVs at a more rapid rate than what we've seen in the United States."

    In the United States, 4K remains very much in the early adopter phase due to high prices. In China, it has essentially become mass market.

    "There are a few causes for this," said Joel Espelien, senior analyst for display technology at The Diffusion Group. "The Chinese video market is a lot younger so there is less of an install base, while in the United States and Western Europe you have a wildly saturated market where people are very much now only buying new TVs as a replacement."

    Chinese manufacturers have taken notice. Previously, the newest and most advanced models might have been pushed to developed markets in North America and Western Europe. Now, Chinese TV makers including TCL and Hisense are happy to control the marketplace in their own backyard. "On the global scale, China is incredibly important for the sale of 4K TVs," Jonathan Frank, vice president of marketing at Hisense USA said. "We are seeing the largest adoption and growth in China, and there is much more readily available 4K content, which in turn drives sales."

    China will always be a primary part of the Hisense strategy, but the U.S. will be a close second, Frank said. Which means Chinese manufacturers may be able to drive down prices for the expensive technology, accelerating its push into the mainstream in developed markets. "Hisense has always stood for 'attainable technology,'" Frank stressed. "Having said that, with 4K being a relatively new technology there is no reason to enter the 'race to zero' yet."

    Today, 4K TVs are about three to four times the price of a regular HDTV set in the U.S. In China, 4K sets are about 30% higher. "The cost to produce 4K is not four times," Gagnon said. "So the ability to make them cheaper now already exists. What we are seeing is that the top-tier brands have more features, but this is a new category that comes with a high price and for the manufacturers provides a high profit."Which means the MSRP is likely to fall.