特斯拉50亿美元超级电池厂大猜想

规模是关键

    然而，在吸引电池合作厂商的计划中，特斯拉最聪明的做法或许是设置新工厂的产能。特斯拉表示，新工厂产能为35千兆瓦时的电池单元及50千兆瓦时的电池组。杰夫称，这额外的15千兆瓦时是特斯拉用以吸引潜在合作伙伴的诱饵。特斯拉实际上已做出保证，虽然新工厂生产的电池大部分会用在下一代车型上，但它还需要从外部购买很多电池。

    “想象一下，如果你是一家电池制造商，你最大的客户跟你说，‘我想让你帮我建一座电池厂，这样我就可以自己生产电池，然后把你从供应链种踢出去’”，杰夫说。“那你何苦要帮他？”

    杰夫进一步表示，即使特斯拉如愿以偿，在大众市场卖出了500,000辆汽车，而且计划继续生产Model S和Model X，Gigafactory也仍然会有10千兆瓦时的产能剩余。特斯拉可以将剩下的产能用于支持及扩大蓬勃发展的固定式（相对于便携式汽车电池来说）能源储备业务。

    特斯拉已在为加利福尼亚能源服务公司SolarCity提供用于商用建筑能源储备系统的电池。SolarCity电网系统集成部门高级主管埃里克•卡尔森表示，公司在开发固定存储产品的过程中已经跟特斯拉保持了三年多的紧密合作。（特斯拉CEO穆斯克同时也是SolarCity的董事长。）

    除表达期待未来继续合作的愿望之外，卡尔森不愿就公司与特斯拉的合作发表更多评论。然而他也表示，SolarCity已经看到市场对固定能源存储设备的巨大需求，同时，它也希望特斯拉能看到这类产品令人兴奋的市场潜力。

    尽管如此，杰夫说，如果特斯拉想每年在固定能源存储市场卖出10千兆瓦时以上的电池组，就必须把电池组价格定在每千瓦时200美元以下。特斯拉声称，它从松下电器购买锂电池的价格是每千瓦时200到300美元，但现在固定能源存储设备的成本上升了许多——全球这类设备的生产成本在每千瓦时500到800美元。

后续计划

    如果特斯拉计划在三年之内将电动汽车投放到大众市场，就必须尽快降低电动汽车的生产成本。投资数十亿美元开设大型工厂，借此统一锂电池制造过程的不同环节，这是达成这个目标的第一步。这笔投资在经济上是否划算呢？与特斯拉一样，我们也只能拭目以待。（财富中文网）    

Size is key

    But the capacity of the factory may be the most clever part of Tesla's plan to attract a battery partner. Tesla said the factory will have the capacity of 35 gigawatt-hours (GWh) per cell and 50 GWh per pack. The extra 15 GWh is the carrot Tesla is holding out to its potential partner, Jaffe said. Tesla is essentially guaranteeing that while most of the battery cells from the factory will go toward its next-generation model, it will still need to buy more.

    "Let's imagine you're a battery manufacturer and your big buyer comes to you and says, 'I want you to help me build a factory so I can make a product that you make today and cut you out of the supply chain,' " Jaffe said. "Why would you possibly do that?"

    Even if Tesla sells the 500,000 mass-market vehicles it desires, and continues to make the Model S and Model X, the Gigafactory should still have a remaining 10 GWh of manufacturing capacity left, Jaffe said. That remaining capacity could be used to support -- and expand -- its burgeoning stationary (as opposed to portable -- that is, cars) energy storage business.

    Tesla already supplies the California energy services company SolarCity with batteries for energy storage systems designed for commercial buildings. SolarCity has worked closely with Tesla for more than three years in its development of a stationary storage product, said Eric Carlson, SolarCity's senior director of grid systems integration. (Tesla's Musk is also chairman of SolarCity.)

    Carlson wouldn't comment on any future plans with the automaker except to say that he expected the partnership to continue. However, he did say that SolarCity sees significant demand for stationary energy storage and would expect that Tesla would also be excited about its market potential.

    Nevertheless, if Tesla expects to sell more than 10 GWh per year's worth of battery packs to the stationary storage market, the packs will have to be priced below $200 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), Jaffe said. Tesla has said that the lithium-ion batteries it buys from Panasonic are between $200 and $300 per kWh, but the current cost of stationary energy storage is much higher -- between $500 and $800 per kWh globally.

Next steps

    If Tesla aims to produce a mass-market electric car in three years, it knows it will need to accelerate the rate at which it drives down the cost of producing one. A massive, multibillion-dollar factory that unifies the disparate steps in manufacturing lithium-ion batteries is a step toward that. Will the economics make sense? Like Tesla itself, we'll only find out in time.