虚拟现实争霸战蓄势待发

    而Facebook的这一笔收购使虚拟现实重新成为媒体关注的焦点。尽管众多玩家多年来一直对这项技术垂涎不已，但Oculus Rift却并未占据主流地位。就算索尼这样的公司在GDC上也要通过展示自己的PlayStation 4来赢得全球媒体的关注。在这届大会上，索尼的展位就紧挨着Oculus Rift庞大的展位。这两个展位都吸引了大批想一睹未来游戏风采的玩家排队参观。

    索尼PlayStation研发部门的“魔法实验室”（Magic Lab）主管理查德•马克斯表示，这一波虚拟现实潮流有别于此前的一点是，技术水平终于能满足虚拟现实梦想的需求了。

    他说：“需要极强的图形处理能力才能让图像达到在人们眼前大面积呈现且栩栩如生的效果。以前追踪技术非常昂贵，但就在过去几年，低成本惯性传感器和摄像头已经能使图像具有极高的保真度。”

    索尼公司已明确表示，“梦菲斯计划”2014年不会正式推出。尽管消费者现在能买到Oculus Rift的开发套件，但Oculus VR公司并没有明确消费者版的上市时间。尽管游戏领域以外的虚拟现实技术应用尚处发展初期，但Facebook已计划将Oculus在游戏方面的优势拓展到其他垂直领域，如通信、媒体和娱乐、教育及其他领域。鉴于这些用于多种领域的应用即将涌现，专家相信，虚拟现实技术很可能成为下一个社交和通讯平台。

    沃曼说：“Oculus Rift更有机会获得大规模应用，因为它与移动设备和个人电脑都能兼容，包括Valve公司的Steam Machines（它将于今年夏天上市）。总的来说，我仍然认为虚拟现实技术大规模商用还为时尚早。”他进一步表示，大家要习惯使用Kinect、谷歌眼镜和其他同类设备还需要一代人时间。之后，虚拟现实技术才会真正获得蓬勃的发展。

    人们是否接受虚拟现实设备，价格也是个重要因素。尽管谷歌眼镜刚推出时少数尝鲜者要花1,500美元的高价才能享用，但现在它如果要实现普及，价位预计就应大幅下调。而卖给开发者的Oculus Rift DK2仅为350美元。而且最终推出的消费者版预计价位会更低。

    沃曼称，“梦菲斯计划”的潜在市场和索尼PS4游戏机直接相关。他预计，长期来看，这款产品的全球最大销量将达2000万台，这是索尼游戏机用户数的25%。而由于有Facebook的支持，Oculus的潜在用户规模要大得多。但沃曼表示，目前需要考虑的因素太多，很难做出销售预测。

    Oculus和索尼无疑是虚拟现实领域两个最大玩家，但它们也不乏对手。在本届GDC大会上，创业公司Seebright就展出了自己全新的头戴式设备原型机，它将虚拟现实和现实增强技术合二为一。这台设备上插着一台智能手机，通过一个小型手柄就能在三维游戏中畅游。公司创始人兼首席执行官约翰•莫里称，这台融合了光学、电子学、软件和人体工学的设备将会合理定价，让多数人都消费得起，而且不管去哪儿都能用得上。

    Sulon Technologies公司也用自己融合了虚拟现实和现实增强技术的产品率先瞄准安卓（Android）用户，随后是iOS用户。而Cortex公司此次是首次在本届大会上亮相，公司创始人兼首席执行官达努森•巴拉钱德斯沃伦向消费者承诺为他们提供《星际迷航》（Star Trek）全息甲板般的体验。

    巴拉钱德斯沃伦称：“它能在空间中开展三维追踪，系统能在微毫米级别上了解玩家所处的物理环境。它背后的技术与谷歌自动驾驶汽车所用技术类似，但它被改造成了低成本的解决方案，适合家庭使用。”

    Richard Marks, who heads up the Magic Lab inside Sony PlayStation R&D, said the differentiator with this new wave of VR is that technology has finally caught up with the dream of virtual reality.

    "You need quite a bit of graphical horsepower to drive the graphics to a quality that you can actually have it take up such a big field of view in front of your eyes," said Marks. "The tracking technology has been very expensive in the past, but just over the last few years low-cost inertial sensors and low-cost cameras have made it possible to do this at a high fidelity."

    Sony has confirmed that Project Morpheus will not be shipping in 2014. And Oculus VR has yet to set a launch date for the consumer version of Oculus Rift, although consumers can purchase the development kit. While the applications for virtual reality technology beyond gaming are in their nascent stages, several industries are already experimenting with the technology, and Facebook plans to extend Oculus' existing advantage in gaming to new verticals, including communications, media and entertainment, education, and other areas. Given these broad potential applications, experts believe virtual reality technology is a strong candidate to emerge as the next social and communications platform.

    "Oculus Rift has a better chance of being used on a wide scale because of its compatibility with mobile devices and PCs, including Valve's Steam Machines (which launch this summer)," said Warman. "In general, I still believe it is too early for commercialization of VR on a mass scale." He adds that it will take another generation getting used to Kinect, Google Glass, and other types of devices before virtual reality will really take off.

    Price point will also play an important role in the acceptance of VR. While early Google Glass technology was released for $1,500 to select early adopters, it's expected to be at a much lower price point for its mainstream launch, Oculus Rift DK2 sells for just $350 to developers. And the final consumer price point is expected to be lower.

    Warman says that the potential market for Project Morpheus is directly related to Sony PS4 consoles. He estimates the maximum sales it could do in the long run is 20 million units worldwide, which is 25% of Sony's installed console base. The Oculus, because of Facebook, has a much larger audience potential, but Warman said there are too many factors to forecast any type of sales projections at this point.

    While Oculus and Sony are the two biggest players in the VR space, there is new competition. Startup Seebright was at GDC showing off its new prototype headset, which combines both virtual and augmented reality. A smartphone plugs directly into the device, and a small handheld controller allows for navigation through 3-D video games. John Murray, CEO and co-founder of Seebright, said the device, which blends optics, electronics, software, and ergonomics, will be priced so it's affordable to everyone and accessible anywhere they go.

    Sulon Technologies is also targeting Android, and later iOS, mobile users with its blend of virtual reality and augmented reality. The Cortex debuted at GDC 2014, and Dhanushan Balachandreswaran, founder and CEO of the company, promises a Star Trek holodeck experience for consumers.

    "It does 3-D tracking in space, and the system understands your physical environment right down to the micro-millimeters," said Balachandreswaran. "The technology behind it is similar to how the Google self-driving car works, but it's customized for a low-cost solution to bring this into the home."