比特币引发巴菲特与安德森的口水大战

    根据这种逻辑，巴菲特对比特币持怀疑态度合情合理。不管你是希望借加密货币的崛起之机投资比特币获利，还是像安德森支持的Coinbase这类公司借比特币的强势而获利，但在加密货币将改变世界这一事实之外，你还需要懂得更多才能挣到钱。毕竟，假如你买了一大堆比特币，但最后却是比特币的某一变种占据了虚拟货币的统治地位，到时候怎么办呢？

    安德森在接受《福布斯》杂志的邮件采访中表示，这种分析“单纯而天真”。他写道：

    “不了解技术的人总是用这种比喻来批判技术……‘是啊，当然，这技术很棒，但并不像那些疯狂的呆子所想的那么有用或有价值。’针对每种重要的新技术，都有这类论调，我这辈子已经听了太多。这不过是故作高深——看起来分析入微，实际上并非如此。”

    安德森的反驳存在一个问题：巴菲特并不想显得高深或是分析入微。巴菲特的重要观点在于：对技术有着深刻或细致的了解，并不是投资获利的必要因素，这甚至反而可能是有害的。巴菲特的投资风格要求他熟知金融知识而避免过分了解技术，以免对这项技术的前景的情感羁绊影响他对利润的关注。

    实际上，这场争论可以归结为一个事实：安德森和巴菲特是两种不同类型的投资者。安德森是个在许多高风险的投资项目上下注挣钱的投资家，他只需要在短期内正确就够了。想知道应该投资哪些高风险项目，你需要对投资的技术有着深刻的了解，从而帮助你预测它们将会如何改变世界。不过即便安德森自己也知道，他这种不断投资的方式只能让他做到短期内正确。巴菲特的方式则正好相反，他或是投资那些比起竞争对手而言有着细微和难以察觉的优势的成熟公司，或是利用他的声望及资金来保证其他任何人都无法参与下注【比如在金融危机最严重的时候，他买入了高盛投资公司（Goldman Sachs）的股票】。

    换句话说，两个人都是对的。（这也是为什么他们拥有的财富比你多得多。）（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    And by this logic, Buffett is right to be skeptical of Bitcoin. Whether you hope to profit from the rise of cryptocurrencies by investing in Bitcoin itself, or companies that would profit from Bitcoin'sascendence like the Andreessen-backed Coinbase, you're going to need to know more than just the fact that cryptocurrencies will change the world to make money. After all, what if you buy a bunch of bitcoins, but it turns out that a bitcoinvarient becomes the dominant form of virtual currency?

    Adresseen, in an email interview with Forbes, called this analysis "unsophisticated." Writes Andreessen:

    "This is a standard trope of technology criticism by people who don't understand technology ... 'Yes, sure, it's great technology, but it won't be useful or valuable in the way that those crazy nerds think it will be useful or valuable.' I've heard it my whole life applied to every new important technology. It's fake sophistication -- it sounds nuanced but it's not."

    The problem with this comeback is that Buffett isn't trying to sound sophisticated or nuanced. Buffett's very point is that a sophisticated or nuanced understanding of technology isn't necessary -- and is perhaps even detrimental -- to making money on investments. Buffett's style of investing requires very sophisticated knowledge of financials while avoiding understanding technology for fear that an emotional connection to the promise of that technology can take his eye off the ball of profits.

    Essentially this disagreement can all be boiled down to the fact that Andreessen and Buffett are two different types of investors. Andreessen is a venture capital guy who makes his money by putting bets on countless long shots, and only needing to be right a fraction of the time. To know what long-shot bets you should make requires a deep knowledge of the technologies you're investing in to aid you in your forecasting of how they will change the world. But even Andreessen knows he's only going to be right a fraction of the time on an investment-by-investment basis. Buffett takes the complete opposite approach -- by either investing in mature companies with very small and hard-to-perceive advantages over their competitors, or by leveraging his reputation and access to capital to make sure bets not available to anyone else (like the stake he took in Goldman Sachs at the height of the financial crisis).

    In other words, both men are right. (And that's why they have so much more money than you.)