可穿戴设备市场的蛋糕能做到多大

    这个问题目前还没有答案，不过苹果在美国拥有一项名叫“腕式步态检测计步器”的专利。它表明，苹果公司有可能会继耐克（Nike）的“能量手环”和Fitbit腕带后，研发出一款被迫不及待的果粉提前命名为“iWatch”的新产品。

    沃尔夫表示，可穿戴设备是否会显著蚕食现有产品类别的市场，目前仍然有待观察。

    沃尔夫说：“目前来看，智能手表可能将成为走在最前面的一种可穿戴设备。但谷歌眼镜的例子也表明，可穿戴设备的范畴可能会广泛得多。随着时间的推移，甚至连我们穿的衣服都有可能智能化。”目前大多数公司都把智能手表当成跟智能手机配对的一个配件来开发，而不是把它当成智能手机的替代品。虽然很多大厂商都把可穿戴设备和智能手机搭配使用，但可穿戴设备仍然存在蚕食其它设备的市场的可能。首先是基本的健身腕带将遭受沉重的打击，因为不管什么时候，只要你的产品功能有限，就会被更加全面的产品超越。”

    HIS公司数码健康副主任谢恩•沃克认为，小型化的小众产品如果不继续增长，就会遭到市场上其他力量的挑战。

    沃尔称：“运动和健身领域的竞争已经很激烈了，计步器和心率监视这一块虽然可能还有增长空间，但是千篇一率同类产品将很难在市场上站住脚。”

    不过恩德勒集团（Enderle Group）的首席分析师罗伯•恩德勒指出，这个市场要想真正增长，还需要一款突破性产品，一款消费者“非买不可”的产品。

    恩德勒说：“现在可穿戴市场的产品总量基本上和iPod问世之前的MP3播放器差不多，而像FitBit和耐克的产品主要围绕着健身功能。它虽然是个不错的市场，但是很缺乏潜力。有了正确的产品，这个市场就有可能与智能手机相匹敌，甚至取代智能手机市场。但目前这个正确的产品还没出现，而且也没有乔布斯式的人物来重演iPod的奇迹。所以目前可穿戴设备主要局限在健身和保健领域，但是它的潜力是广阔的。但是我们需要的是一款像iPod、iPhone或iPad这样能实现这个潜力的产品。”

    这是不是有点赌运气的感觉？对此沃尔夫表示，如果你相信这个商机，它就完全有可能。

    沃尔夫认为：“可穿戴设备的销量拥有超过平板电脑的潜力，它是一个更加广阔的产品类别。‘可穿戴设备’可以是虚拟现实头盔，可以是手表，可以是挂在腰上的东西，甚至是可以穿在衣服上的技术。这个市场的门槛很低，所以未来十年，这个类别将出现重大增长。而且总体上可穿戴市场这个大蛋糕会变得大得多。”（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    That part of the equation remains unanswered, though Apple retains a U.S. patent for "Wrist Pedometer Step Detection," suggesting that the Cupertino, Calif.-based company is looking to create something -- devotees are calling it the iWatch -- along the lines of Nike's FuelBand or the Fitbit.

    It remains to be seen whether wearables will significantly cannibalize existing product categories, Wolf said.

    "For now the leading category will likely be smartwatches, but as Google Glass suggests, it could become much broader and in time even be in the clothing we wear," Wolf said. "Most of the companies developing smartwatches see this as a product that accompanies a smartphone as opposed to any sort of replacement. Certainly the big players view this as a device used with a smartphone, but there could be some cannibalization of other devices. The basic fitness bands will be hit hard, because any time you have a limited product it could be overtaken by the more general products."

    Smaller, niche players must grow or face challenging market forces, said Shane Walker, associate director for Digital Health Research at IHS.

    "In sports and fitness there has been a lot of competition," Walker said. "There could still be growth in the activity and heart rate monitors, but the 'me too' type of devices will find it hard to stick around."

    But for the market to really grow, it will need a breakthrough, "must-have" product, said Rob Enderle, principal analyst for the Enderle Group.

    "Right now wearable [product] volumes are around where MP3 players were pre-iPod, and the success surrounds products like the FitBit and Nike offerings focused on exercise," Enderle said. "It is a decent market but well short of potential. With the right product, this market could grow to rival or even replace the smartphone market, but the right product hasn't emerged yet and Steve Jobs isn't around to repeat the iPod cycle. So, for now, it is limited to exercise and health care, the potential is there for more -- but we need an iPod-, iPhone-, iPad-like effort to achieve that potential."

    Is that kind of push in the cards? If the business opportunity is to be believed, it's entirely possible, Wolf said.

    "Wearables has the potential from units sold as a category to be bigger than tablets," Wolf said. "It is a much more expansive category. 'Wearables' could be VR headsets. It could be a watch. It could be something on your hip or technology in your clothing. The hurdles to get in on this market are low, so there is going to be serious expansion of the category over the next decade. Yes, that overall pie is going to get a lot bigger."