中国左右社交媒体4巨头未来
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如前所述，Facebook可能进化成一个持有一系列品牌和服务的公司，而Twitter则可能继续以简洁性走差异化道路。但是首先，Twitter必须能够持续生钱。在贝利看来，未来五年里，Twitter的生钱速度将超过它吸纳新用户的速度。他还说：“他们非常简洁，非常公开，而且它围绕人们喜欢的东西还有很多数据，而且它的公开性非常适合用来做广告。我认为它实现了简洁、公开、及时更新的网络目标。” 与此同时，Twitter的缓慢增长引起了巴哈蒂亚的担心。虽然他认为Twitter会持续增长下去，但他也认为Twitter无法达到Facebook的用户群的规模。他还说：“另外Instagram已经赶上来了。Facebook将成为科技界的四驾马车之一，Twitter则是一家虽然很有意思、但规模并不是很庞大的公司。” 不过在琼斯看来，用户并不是决定问题的全部因素。Twitter与Facebook的不同之处就在于它非常公开。随着数据技术的不断发展，Twitter的公开性将为它带来更多的用途。因此琼斯认为，从长期来看，Twitter有被一家巨型机构收购的可能——比如联合国（the United Nations），这样一来它将可以以难以想象的广度内收集和发布信息。 琼斯说：“Twitter有很大的机会，就是因为它的简单有效。” 职场是商务社交网站LinkedIn作为社交网络的主阵地，而且从一开始就是这样。这样专一的目标使LinkedIn在未来五到十年内仍然有很高的潜力，即便很多用户仍然不清楚究竟应该在LinkedIn上干什么。贝利说：“我认为随着人们渐渐明白他们应该在LinkedIn上分享哪种类型的内容，LinkedIn会成功的。”他认为LinkedIn将成为一个专门分享以职场和职业为主要内容的干净的平台。 琼斯同时还认为，LinkedIn收集的数据是非常有价值的。“如果你想了解最新的职场人的消息，那就非LinkedIn莫属——人们的消息更新得很快。”因此，LinkedIn将继续承担B2B社交网络的角色。凭借它的数据，未来几年里可能会涌现一系列LinkedIn产品，尤其是在与招聘和保留人才有关的领域。 但是LinkedIn以及所有社交网络最大的变数当属LinkedIn的下一个战场——中国。今年二月，LinkedIn发布了中文网站的测试版。巴哈蒂亚说：“我认为作为一个新平台，它将在中国发展得很好。”巴哈蒂亚认为LinkedIn未来五年内将在中国取得巨大的成功。他说：“他们有中国政府的支持，而且他们将在中国提供实用的服务，我认为他们的业务模式也是正确的。”另外与其他被中国政府挡在门外的社交网站相比，LinkedIn的定位使之在中国具有先天的竞争优势，因此可能在未来五到十年内拥有更多的增长机会。（财富中文网） 译者：朴成奎
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Just as Facebook could evolve into a complicated conglomeration of services and brands, Twitter (TWTR) may continue to differentiate itself through its simplicity. But first, the network has to continue monetizing, and in Berry's view, over the next five years Twitter's monetization will be faster than its user adoption. "They are so simple and so public, and it works so much data around what you are interested in -- the fact that it's all public is perfect for advertising," he says. "I think it achieves being the short, public, status updates of the Internet." Meanwhile, Twitter's slow growth gives Bhatia cause for concern. While he thinks the network will continue to grow, he believes it won't equal Facebook's user base. "And already Instagram is catching up," he says. "While Facebook is going to become one of the four horsemen of technology, Twitter will be an interesting, decent-sized company, but not a mainstay, if you will." But according to Jones, it's not all about the users. What sets Twitter apart is that, unlike Facebook, the network is so open. As data science continues to boom, this openness will give Twitter increasing utility, and because of this he sees the long-shot possibly that the service gets bought out by a giant organization, like the United Nations, for dissemination and collection of data on a scale never imagined. "There's something big in store for them, just because it's simple and it works," Jones says. Working is the key to LinkedIn's (LNKD) social network, and it has been from the start. This singular focus gives the network continued high potential over the next five to 10 years, even while users try to figure out what, exactly, to do on it. "I think they're going to win as people begin to understand the type of content they should share on LinkedIn," says Berry, who thinks the network will emerge as the clear place to post professional, career-oriented content. Of course, the data that LinkedIn amasses is wildly valuable, Jones says. "If you want the most up-to-date listing of who's working where, it's LinkedIn -- people update that immediately," he says. As a result, LinkedIn will continue to dominate as the de facto business-to-business social network. And through its data, a number of LinkedIn products could emerge in coming years, especially around recruiting and even employee retention. But the biggest game-changer for LinkedIn -- and indeed, all of the social networks -- is where the company is headed next: China. In February, LinkedIn announced a beta version of its Chinese site. "I think it's a new platform that will do well in China," says Bhatia, who sees LinkedIn succeeding wildly in China over the next five years. "They have support from the Chinese government, they are going to provide a useful service there, and I think their model makes sense," he says. LinkedIn's preferred access is a competitive advantage that the other social networks -- who have been shut out by the Chinese government -- can't match and may position it better than any other for growth in the next five or 10 years. |
