别担心，中国科技产品消费放缓只是暂时的

    中国政府停止提供补贴的原因是，中国已经不再需要依靠政府来促进增长。他们表示，中国消费者的可支配收入水平已经上升，随着消费者越发倾向于换掉老旧电器，部分产品的更新换代周期将缩短。

    截至目前，中国消费电子产品销售额的增长动力一直来自城镇市场。但研究者指出，随着中国城乡收入差距缩小，规模较小的农村消费群体已经呈现出增长态势。

    市场研究机构NetPop Research分析师乔希•克兰德尔说：“中国消费市场的年龄结构属于年轻型，而且经过了教育，中国消费者都急于跟上最新潮流。为此，他们会不停地查看微博上的消息和人人网上的最新内容，同时收看电视新闻和信息频道。他们想让自己用的东西和时尚同步。政府补贴减少体现了目前市场的活力。虽然短期收入可能减少，但对那些将产品销往这个全球最大市场的消费电子产品制造商来说，长期前景非常好。”

    消费电子产品增长放缓的另一个原因是对智能手机的需求上升。现在，中国消费者都用智能手机来拍照、录像、听音乐，从而对专门的摄影器材和便携媒体播放器的销售产生了威胁。科技行业研究分析机构IHS Technology预计，到2017年，中国数码相机发货量将比2009年减少75%，个人媒体播放器同期发货量的降幅更是高达92%，这种情况和世界上其他地区出现的趋势一致。

    杜博拉瓦克说：“全球智能手机市场约有11亿消费者，其中中国就占了4亿。目前的增长来自中国本土制造商，在苹果公司（Apple）和三星（Samsung）主导全球市场的情况下，这种现象格外引人瞩目。在大多数消费电子产品领域都能看到这样的局面，那就是50%以上的销售额都来自中国公司。中国制造商并没有占据绝大多数市场，但它们的销售表现确实非常、非常强劲。”

    中国电子消费产品销售额最快有望在2015年出现反弹，甚至是在发货量仍小幅下降的情况下。同时，寻求增长的中国电子消费产品制造商可能会把目光投向海外市场。

    IHS Technology分析师Horse Liu认为：“由于中国国内、北美和欧洲市场的增长率下降，甚至出现了负增长，中国企业将继续开拓新的市场。”

    此外，由于促进增长的补贴已经消失，这些企业的关注重点预计将从发货量转向别处。它们已经把更多精力投入到利润率更高的高端产品上，以便提高销售收入。

    Horse说：“中国一线消费电子厂商将更加重视利润率。”（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    Officials ended the subsidies because they believe they are no longer needed to drive growth. Disposable income levels in China have increased, they argue, and the replacement cycle for some products will shorten as consumers increasingly opt to upgrade their aging electronics.

    Until now, China's urban markets have driven the country's growth in consumer electronics sales. But researchers say that the relatively small consumer base in the countryside is poised for growth as the income gap between urban and rural Chinese narrows.

    "China's consumer market is young and educated, and Chinese consumers are keen on staying on top of the latest trends," said Josh Crandall, an analyst at NetPop Research. "To do this, they are constantly checking Weibo feeds, Renren updates, as well as tuning into news and information on television. They need their devices to stay in the game. Lowering governmental subsidies is a reflection of the market's current strength. While there may be short-term revenue shortfalls, the long view is strong for consumer electronics companies that serve the world's largest market."

    Another reason for the consumer electronics slowdown: increased demand for smartphones, which Chinese consumers are now using to take photos, record video clips, and listen to music, threatening sales of dedicated imaging devices and portable media players. IHS Technology forecasts that shipments of digital still cameras in China by 2017 will have lost 75% of their volume compared to 2009, while personal media players during the same period will be down a debilitating 92%, mirroring trends seen in other areas of the world.

    "Globally the smartphone market is about 1.1 billion people," DuBravac said. "Of that, 400 million is just China. The growth now is coming from domestic manufacturers, which is notable in a market that is worldwide dominated by Apple and Samsung. This is also true with most CE products, where more than 50% of sales are from Chinese makers. It is not a super-majority, but domestic sales are still very, very strong."

    Consumer electronics sales in China could rebound as early as 2015, even if unit shipments continue to decline slightly. In the meantime, Chinese consumer electronics manufacturers may look to new markets outside of their home country for growth.

    "China's makers will continue to develop new markets due to lower or negative growth ratio in domestic, North American and European markets," said Horse Liu, an analyst at IHS Technology.

    Further, manufacturers are expected to turn their focus away from shipments now that the growth-stoking subsidies have disappeared. Already, they are putting more energy into high-end products with larger margins to push sales revenue.

    "China's leading CE makers will pay more attention to profit margin," Horse said.