中国土壤污染问题影响国际粮食安全

    未来这种趋势只会加速，因为土壤污染将迫使中国部分土地停止农业生产；而且，中国将依靠进口来弥补粮食缺口。虽然中国政府有雄厚的财力来购买粮食（2012年中国农产品的净贸易赤字为310亿美元），但从国外采购粮食将对全球粮食生产系统造成破坏性的影响。由于气候变化、人口增长和工业化的影响，全球粮食生产系统未来将面临越来越大的压力。最坏的情况是，中国尝试确保本国粮食安全的做法可能会遭到国外的强烈抵制。

    中国官员和民营企业家更有可能寻求立竿见影的措施，以填补中国粮食产量的缺口。收购成熟的西方食品公司（它们拥有或能够获得清洁土地和水资源）显然是一个诱人的策略。 2013年5月份，中国猪肉生产商双汇国际（Shuanghui International）以47亿美元的价格收购了当时全球最大的养猪及猪肉生产企业史密斯菲尔德食品公司（Smithfield Foods）。此次收购本身是极为成功的商业举措，但同时也在实际上增强了中国的粮食安全性。

    中国也可以建立食品加工厂，或者在耕地和水资源充足的国家收购这类工厂（最好是欢迎、保护外国投资的国家）。今年3月份，中国一线婴儿配方奶粉生产商圣元国际（Synutra International）首开先河，投资1.25亿美元在法国布列塔尼半岛开工兴建奶粉工厂，为中国市场生产高品质奶制品。由于污染问题，中国民众认为国内生产的婴儿配方奶粉不安全。购买国外耕地政治上更敏感，经济风险也更大。相比之下，收购成熟的食品生产商以及投资于食品加工厂是更好的选择。

    目前，中国企业在这方面的行动一直较为温和。它们已经引起了国外的注意，但还没有拉响警报。然而，如果今后土壤污染导致中国公众对本土所产食品的安全性失去信心，中国政府就别无选择，只能扩大类似举措，而其他国家会认为这将威胁它们的粮食安全。

    虽然中国对粮食安全的需求可以理解，同时也会为产能过剩的国家创造巨大机遇，但中国政府必须小心行事。它必须制定可信以及可强制执行的保障机制，从而使贸易伙伴放心。否则，外国政府就会设置障碍，阻挠中国的行动。

    鉴于中国土壤受污染面积巨大，这种势头将给中国带来巨大灾难。（财富中文网）

    本文作者裴敏欣是美国加州克莱蒙特•麦肯纳学院汤姆和玛戈•特普利兹克 '72教席政治学教授，德国马歇尔基金会非常驻高级研究员。

    If anything, this trend will only accelerate in the future if soil pollution forces China to take land out of production and rely on imports to make up for the shortfall. Although Beijing will have ample financial means to pay for its food (it had a net trade deficit of $31 billion in agricultural products in 2012), its efforts to source food from abroad will have disruptive effects on a global food production system that will come under increased strain due to climate change, population growth, and industrialization. In a worst-case scenario, Chinese attempts to increase its food security could encounter an ugly backlash abroad.

    Most likely, Chinese officials and private entrepreneurs will pursue strategies that promise to deliver quick results to plug the growing hole in China's food output. Buying well-established Western food companies that own or have access to clean land and water supplies is evidently a tempting tactic. In May 2013, Shuanghui International, a Chinese pork producer, paid $4.7 billion for Smithfield Foods, then the world's largest hog farmer and meat processor. This acquisition, a brilliant business move in its own right, also has the practical effect of strengthening China's food security.

    China can also build food-processing factories or acquire such facilities in countries with ample arable land and water resources (preferably countries that welcome and protect foreign investments). In March, a top Chinese baby formula maker, Synutra International, broke ground on a $125 million facility in Brittany in France. It will produce high-quality milk products for the Chinese market, where locally made baby formula is viewed as unsafe because of pollution. Acquiring established food producers and investing in food processing facilities are better options than purchasing arable land abroad (which is more politically sensitive and economically risky).

    At the moment, such moves by Chinese companies have been modest. They have raised eyebrows, but not alarms. However, in the future, if soil pollution causes the Chinese public to lose confidence in the safety of food produced in China, Beijing may have no choice but to expand its efforts, which could be viewed as a threat to food security by foreign nations.

    While China's need for food security is understandable and will create enormous opportunities for countries with excess production capacity, Beijing must move carefully. It must devise credible and enforceable safeguard mechanisms that will reassure its trading partners. Otherwise, foreign governments will erect barriers to stymie Chinese efforts.

    In light of China's massive soil pollution, such a development would be an epic catastrophe.

    Minxin Pei is the Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.