谷歌的乐高式智能手机有没有前途

    ‘关键问题在于如何控制成本’

    拉马斯称，模块化设备可以为零售商和运营商提供急需的差异化（尽管只是暂时的）。但所需的投资可能十分巨大。

    拉马斯说：“想想训练销售队伍，想想将需要准备多少库存，将需要采购各种颜色和设计的部件。人们最不愿看到的就是库存积压。”

    还有一个问题就是，这种设备从工程角度而言是否可行。

    拉马斯说：“我本人不是工程师，但我知道，如果你把两个物体一次次组合在一起，天长日久，组合就会变得不那么顺畅。要使部件组合得天衣无缝，各个部件必须能经受冲击和跌落等情况。我认为，这绝对不是一件容易的事。”

    而最关键的问题则在于成本控制。如今消费者不能定制手机并不是因为缺乏相应的理念；而是客观条件还不完全具备。

    赛莫哈克说：“我很认同模块化智能手机的设想。这类项目本质上是尝试给消费者提供更多选择，而这正是消费者所缺乏的东西。”与此同时，“存在的问题是成本控制。模块化在硬件、软件、机械设计乃至美学层面都十分复杂。在大众市场，成本可能是最重要的因素，而降低价格的唯一办法就是大批量生产同一种产品。”

    赛莫哈克说道，而模块化就意味着无法实现规模化生产。

    ‘摩托罗拉曾经进行过尝试’

    模块化概念并非前无古人，特别是在个人电脑领域。

    研究公司J. Gold Associates负责人杰克•金说：“Ara项目旨在使手机效仿个人电脑。大家购买戴尔（Dell）、惠普（HP）或联想的电脑，都会告诉厂商你需要哪些配置——处理器、内存、硬盘、显示器等等。Ara尝试把这种模式带到手机行业，最终带到平板电脑生产领域。”

    这个模式到底能不能获得消费者的认可？赛莫哈克称目前还无法判断。

    金说：“没有做出产品之前很难创造需求。”

    金表示，模块化智能手机可能对某些年龄层的消费者颇具吸引力。“特别是对二三十岁的年轻人而言，能‘定制’这一点就足够特别，足够获得极高的人气。当然，摩托罗拉曾经进行过类似的尝试，结果差强人意，尽管它的定制化程度要低得多。”

    赛莫哈克认为，模块化生产在某些行业具有潜力，但并不是在整个消费市场都可行。

    赛莫哈克说：“眼下，大众市场解决方案强调开发出“杀手级应用”。这样的应用确实存在，但还有一类在特定社区和子类别中如鱼得水的热门应用，比如医疗领域就是一个很好的例子。”

    赛莫哈克表示，举例来说，采用模块化方式生产的智能手机将帮助糖尿病和青少年哮喘患者以更经济的方式满足特殊需求。他说：“假如有100个存在特殊需求的市场，从经济角度而言，我们无法以服务大众市场的方式来服务这些市场。”

    如果处理得当，就经济角度而言，这个模式对谷歌或其他手机制造商来说将是可行的。赛莫哈克说：“从谷歌的角度而言，是从同一种产品卖出1000万件变成10种产品每种卖出100万件。因为投资于（模块化生产）平台，所以能够以经济可行的方式实现这个转变。”（财富中文网）

    译者：项航

    'The countervailing problem will be cost'

    As for retailers and carriers, a modular device could -- albeit briefly -- offer a modicum of much-needed differentiation, Llamas said. But the investment required could be significant.

    "Think about training your sales force, how much inventory you'll have to carry, all the different colors and designs you may have to have," he said. "The last thing you want is to hang onto inventory that's just not moving."

    And then there's the question of whether such a device is feasible from an engineering perspective.

    "I'm not an engineer, but I know if you take two objects and slide them on top of each other again and again, eventually they won't lock as well as they used to," Llamas said. "For this to really come together, the parts have to be able to withstand shock, drops, the elements, and that's a huge thing for me."

    One of the most compelling arguments? Cost. The inability for consumers to service their own devices today is hardly an oversight; it takes a variable out of the equation.

    "I have a soft spot in my heart for what they're trying to do," Semmelhack said. "They're trying in essence to provide consumers with what they're missing right now, which is choice." At the same time, "the countervailing problem will be cost. Modularity comes with a lot of complexity on the hardware level, the software level, the mechanical design level -- even aesthetics. In a mass market, cost is probably the most important factor, and the only way to get the price down is to make the same thing in large quantities."

    With the modular approach, Semmelhack said, "you lose that scale."

    'Moto tried this before'

    The modular concept isn't without precedent, most notably in the PC category.

    "We're seeing, through Ara, an attempt to make smartphones much more like PCs in the sense that when you go to Dell or HP or Lenovo, you get to tell them what to put in -– processor, memory, disk, display, etc.," said Jack Gold, principal of research firm J. Gold Associates. "Ara is an attempt to take this model down to smartphones and probably tablets eventually."

    Will consumers bite? Llamas said it's too early to tell.

    "It's hard to build demand when there's no product currently out there," he said.

    Gold said appeal could be generational. "Being able to offer a 'customized' phone, particularly to twenty- and thirtysomethings, could be enough of a differentiator to make it very popular," he said. "Of course, Moto tried this before, with marginal success, albeit with far less customization."

    Semmelhack sees potential in certain industries, rather than the broader consumer market.

    "There's all this emphasis in mass-market solutions to try to find 'the killer app,'" Semmelhack said. "There are some out there, but there's also a category of lesser killer apps within communities and subcategories -- medical is a great example."

    With a modular approach to smartphones, he said, it would be more feasible to address users with diabetes or juvenile asthma, for example, in economical ways. "Say there are 100 markets with idiosyncratic needs," Semmelhack said. "That isn't economically feasible to serve in a mass-market way."

    Done right, it can make economic sense for Google or any other phone-maker. "Instead of selling 10 million of one thing, from Google's perspective, you sell a million of 10 things," Semmelhack said. "You can do it economically because you have invested in the platform."