评论称海外现科技泡沫：警惕虚假繁荣 抓住“酷”公司

    冒着让大家觉得我已经老了的风险，我要说的是，以前我也见过这种局面。以前的科技泡沫时期，也有一些叱咤一时的科技媒体，比如Upside和《红鲱鱼》杂志（Red Herring，像今天的一些新媒体一样，这两家媒体背后也都有知名风投的资助），以及CNET新闻、《行业标准》（The Industry Standard）等，另外《华尔街日报》和《泰晤士报》（Times）也大量出炉科技类报道，当然还有走下坡路的《圣荷塞信使报》。

    但是事实上，本文的大多数读者可能从来没听说过其中一部分媒体的名字，充分说明了他们的结局。另外，我在上文列出的部分媒体，可能也熬不过这一次的泡沫。当然，也有一些能继续活下去。泡沫就是这样的。

    另外，从我收件箱里的各种饭局、酒局和社交活动的邀请中也能看出泡沫的迹象。就在这个礼拜，我女儿学校的家长与老师联谊会将在旧金山举办一场高规格的资金筹集会，但它希望吸引的人远远不止是这个学校的家长圈子。光是我个人就听说当晚旧金山的其他地方将有不少于四场重大聚会，其中还不包括直奔主题的商业活动。我每个礼拜至少有四天晚上都能轻松吃上饭局，举办方都是想为客户做宣传的公关公司。更何况我受邀的次数还远远比不上我那些更年轻、更愿意接受邀请的同事们。

    这种情况也不新鲜了。上一次泡沫中——当时我还年轻，而且除了工作之外也没有那么多责任——我当时基本上都不再参加与科技行业有关的饭局了，因为它们都是一个样。主题是一个样，人是同一拨人，餐厅呢？也是同一家餐厅。

    科技泡沫破裂后，这类邀请大幅减少。真是让人送了口气。

    最后我要给大家一个警告，以及一个我们学到的教训。

    警告是：我不知道这场“抢椅子”的游戏什么时候结束，谁最后会抢不到椅子坐，我只知道它一定会结束。

    我要说的经验，则是我这次将以不同的方法应对这个泡沫。上次泡沫的过程中，那个泡沫从膨胀到破裂的过程让我身心疲惫——首先是令人头晕眼花地增长膨胀，然后是千篇一律地虚假繁荣，最后是令人失望地崩溃——我甚至很难再为科技行业的事而感到兴奋了。有一段时间里，我甚至无视了一些真正搞科技的比较“酷”的公司。比如我在科技行业陷入低谷的时候访问了谷歌，当时虽然谷歌的乐观精神让我感到兴奋，但它的业务模式却没给我留下什么印象。

    这一次，我打算睁大眼睛，仔细观察那些肯定能熬过这个奇怪的时期的有趣的公司和企业家们。因为科技泡沫就在我们身边——而且我完全相信它会破裂。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    At the risk of sounding old, I've seen this before, too. Back in the good old days, there wereUpside and Red Herring magazines (each notable, like some of today's new outlets, for being backed by some of the venture capitalists they covered), as well as CNET News, The Industry Standard and robust coverage in the Journal, Times, and -- bless its diminished soul -- theMercury News.

    The fact that most people reading this post won't have ever heard of some of these publications should sufficiently explain how it all turned out for them. And some of the news organizations that I listed above that are in existence today won't survive the demise of the current bubble. Some will, of course. That's how bubbles work.

    I can also gauge the tech bubble by the flow of dinner, drinks, and other social invitations in my inbox. The PTA at my daughter's school is hosting a really neat fundraiser this week in San Francisco, the kind of event that appeals to an audience far beyond our school community. I personally know of no fewer than four other significant functions happening that night elsewhere in San Francisco, and that's not counting straight-ahead business functions. I could easily dine out four nights a week on the dime of some public relations firm that is hosting a dinner in an attempt to drum up publicity for its client. And I'm not invited to nearly the number of swanky gatherings that my younger, more receptive colleagues are.

    This isn't new, either. During the last bubble -- when I was younger and had fewer responsibilities outside of work -- I pretty much stopped going to tech-related dinners because they were all the same. The stories were the same. The people were the same. The restaurants? The same.

    After the bubble popped, the invitations slowed down dramatically. It was a relief.

    I'll conclude with one caveat and one lesson learned.

    The caveat is that I have no idea when this game of musical chairs will end and who will be left standing. I just know that it will end.

    The lesson involves how I intend to behave differently this time around. Before, I was so exhausted from the trajectory of it all -- first the giddy run-up, then the monotonous exuberance, and finally the depressing collapse -- that I had a hard time getting excited about the technology business for a while. For a short period of time, it blinded me to legitimately cool companies that were still grinding away on interesting businesses. I remember visiting Google (GOOG), for example, during the depths of the tech downturn and being simultaneously excited by its optimism and unimpressed with its business model. (Oops.)

    This time around, I plan to keep my eyes open for the interesting companies and entrepreneurs that are sure to survive this strange period. Because the tech bubble is upon us -- and I fully expect it to burst.