从大数据看“柠檬危机”

    不过芝加哥的餐饮酒吧老板马克•多米特罗维奇表示，目前他要买一箱柠檬仍需花100美元以上的价格。

    多米特罗维奇表示：“顾客不太注意柠檬价格的走高，所以我们并没有怎么改变我们的备餐流程。我们对柠檬片的大小做了一些变化，不过我们只想自己把成本化解掉，而不是费力气向顾客去解释。”

    在芝加哥餐饮业从业多年的本•席勒表示，他发现他的“伯克郡小屋”（Berkshire Room）餐厅买到的一些柠檬的质量大不如前了，不光尺寸小了，而且果汁含量也变低了。但是柠檬的价格仍在波动。不过他认为这只是一时的困难，而不是一场长期危机。

    USDA《市场新闻》的一位匿名专家（因其未经该局官方授权代表该局表态）指出，目前许多像席勒这样的餐饮业主对这场“柠檬危机”反应冷静，只订购必要数量的柠檬。

    虽然柠檬是制作鳄梨色拉酱和玛格丽塔酒时不可缺少的原料之一，但食品和饮料行业还是创造性地使用菠萝和葡萄柚等水果当作柠檬的替代品，同时耐心等待这场柠檬危机过去。这种做法使得市场对柠檬的需求出现了显著的下降——尽管许多媒体还在不厌其烦地炒作“柠檬危机”。

    这位USDA的专家还表示，换句话说，目前市场的情况和两周以前已经出现了根本的改观。越来越多的柠檬正从边境输入美国，而且价格每天都在下降。

    一般来说，柠檬在夏天旺季的价格一般都在每箱6到7美元之间。有市场专家表示，自上周三起，他们发现有些地方的柠檬价格已经出现了“柠檬危机”以来的最低价。虽然五月五日节的到来可能将推高柠檬的订单，但节后需求又将震荡下降。加上买家们已经厌倦了付高价，这可能意味着我们要比预想的提前跟柠檬危机说拜拜了。

    但是，柠檬价格会回落到去年的每箱15到20美元的价格吗？专家们还不确定在这次危机后，柠檬市场将呈现什么样的态势。但是柠檬并不是美国消费者唯一应该担心的农作物。

    据USDA《市场新闻》报道，美国所有水果和蔬菜的价格预计将上涨3.5到4.5%。今年2月，《今日美国》（USA Today ）称牛肉的零售价已升至1987年以来的最高点，同时猪肉价格上涨了6.8%，家禽价格也比去年同期上涨了4.7%。

    与此同时，巴西的持续干旱已经导致阿拉伯咖啡的产量降低、价格升高，这种咖啡豆经常用在各种美食饮料里。另据《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal ）报道，随着全球需求上涨，咖啡价格自今年一月起已经翻了一番。

    由于农业持续遭受极端天气的打击，现在还不能确定“正常”价格会是什么样。但不论如何，今年夏天，柠檬将或多或少回归正常价格，正好来得及让你调一杯冰凉解暑的米切拉达酒。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    But Chicago restaurant and bar owner Mark Domitrovich says he's still paying more than $100 per case at the moment.

    "The customer is a bit oblivious to the price hike so we haven't changed our procedures too much," the owner of Frontier, Lottie's Pub, and The Pony says. "We've made modifications to the size of the limes but we tend to just absorb the cost rather than trying to explain it to the customers."

    Chicago restaurant veteran Ben Schiller says he's seen poorer quality in some of the limes at his restaurant The Berkshire Room, including limes that are smaller in size and lower juice content. But pricing continues to fluctuate, and he sees it more as a temporary blip than a long-term crisis.

    Schiller is one of many buyers taking the crisis in stride, holding out and only ordering as much as needed, according to a USDA Market News specialist who was granted anonymity because she was not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of her organization.

    As much as we find limes irreplaceable -- sorry, lemons -- for items such as guacamole and the margarita, the food and beverage industry is getting creative with substitutes like pineapple and grapefruit until price hysteria subsides. Those actions have led to a significant decrease in demand, despite the headlines.

    In other words, the story has completely changed from two weeks ago, the USDA market specialist tells Fortune. More shipments are crossing the border, and prices continue to drop each day, she says.

    Typically lime prices in the summertime, the heaviest season, tend to be around $6 to $7 per crate. As of Wednesday, market experts say they've seen some of the lowest prices on limes since the price disruption began. Though Cinco de Mayo calls for an uptick in orders, demand is likely to waver after the holiday. But coupled with buyers tired of paying high prices means we may get to say farewell to lime austerity sooner than we thought.

    But will prices return to last year's $15 to $20 per crate? Experts remain uncertain what normal will be following the hit the lime market has taken. But limes are not the only crop American consumers should worry about.

    Prices for all fruits and vegetables are expected to rise between 3.5 and 4.5 %, according to a recent USDA Market News report. In February, USA Today reported the highest average retail cost for beef on record since 1987, while pork was up 6.8% and poultry shot up 4.7% over the last year.

    Meanwhile, droughts in Brazil have resulted in higher prices and lower production of Arabica coffee, the popular bean used in gourmet blends. Coffee prices have more than doubled since January as global demand grows, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

    As the agriculture business continues to reel from severe weather, "normal" prices have yet to be determined. Nonetheless, you can expect to see the citrus staple reappear -- at (somewhat) normal prices -- this summer, just in time for an ice-cold Michelada.