丰田大手笔押宝燃料电池汽车
|
汽车行业的未来在哪里？最近，特斯拉（Tesla）及其CEO埃隆•穆斯克可谓赚足了眼球，所以，电动汽车是符合逻辑的猜测。 但丰田汽车（Toyota）并不这样认为。 混合动力或替代燃料汽车占丰田汽车去年总销量的16%，其中，电动汽车占比为10%。在周二的《财富》（Fortune）绿色头脑风暴大会（Brainstorm Green）上，丰田北美公司（Toyota North America）CEO吉姆•伦茨对观众表示：“随着电池技术的改进，这个部门还会继续增长。但真正令我们感到兴奋的是燃料电池汽车的概念。” 为什么？伦茨表示，因为“这是一种基于需求的电动汽车。这种汽车没有笨重的大号电池，不需要花很长时间充电，主要使用氢气来产生电力和水蒸汽。”另外一个因素在于，电动汽车电池价格的下降幅度不足以为消费者提供价格合理的远程驾驶汽车。伦茨称：“未来这种情况可能会有所改变，但我不知道会是什么时候。从长期来看，燃料电池车型才是最后的赢家。” 很快，伦茨就开始滔滔不绝地介绍燃料电池汽车的好处：它们的碳足迹比汽油改善了50%，燃料成本将降低——可乘坐4名乘客的轿车行驶300英里的费用约为30美元。 尽管有各种好处，但有一个重要的不利因素依然不容忽视：氢动力汽车没有地方加注燃料，而修建氢气站的费用又太过昂贵；每一个氢气站的成本大约为200万美元。 大会主持人、《财富》杂志资深编辑布莱恩•杜梅因说：“加利福尼亚州总共也只有9到10个（氢气）站，全世界也仅有180个。在加州去哪儿为氢动力汽车加注燃料？” 伦茨表示，丰田汽车正在与加州大学尔湾分校（University of California at Irvine）合作，确定氢气站的最佳位置，以及加州满足约10,000辆燃料电池汽车需要多少个氢气站。他说：“我们得出的结果是68个。”凭借加州的2亿美元投资，以及丰田投入的700万美元，加州到明年将拥有30个氢气站。伦茨说：“加州距离实现初步氢气高速公路的目标并不遥远。” 接下来还有价格问题。丰田汽车以经济适用性而著称，燃料电池汽车是否也能做到这一点？ 伦茨对绿色头脑风暴大会的观众们表示，丰田公司有约100辆燃料电池汽车已经上路——每一辆价值约100万美元。他表示，明年公司向公众推出燃料电池汽车时，价格将大幅下调，仅为目前价格的5%，也就是50,000美元。 毫无疑问，伦茨对燃料电池的未来充满热情。但他表示，目前并不是所有人都像他一样乐观。他说：“以混合动力汽车为例，从最初推出到销量超过50,000辆，我们花了15年时间。我想大家可以做出这样的假设：未来一段时间，燃料电池汽车会达到类似的接受度。”（财富中文网） 译者：刘进龙/汪皓 |
What's the future of the automobile? For all the attention Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk have received of late, the electric car is the logical guess. Not at Toyota. Hybrid or alternative fuel vehicles made up 16% of Toyota's (TM) total sales last year – 10% of that number was from electric vehicles. That sector "will grow over time, as we see improvement in batteries," Jim Lentz, CEO of Toyota North America told the audience at Fortune's Brainstorm Green conference on Tuesday. "But we're really excited about this concept of fuel cell vehicles." Why? Because "it's an on-demand electric vehicle," Lentz said. "Rather than having a large heavy battery that takes a while to charge, you basically use hydrogen to produce electricity and water vapor." Another factor is that prices of batteries used in electric vehicles aren't dropping dramatically enough to offer consumers a long-range vehicle at a reasonable price. "It'll happen some day, but I can't tell you when that is," Lentz says. "The long term play is going to be fuel cell." Lentz was quick to reel off the benefits of fuel cell vehicles: their carbon footprint is 50% better than gasoline, and their fuel costs will be low – about $30 for a 4-passenger sedan to travel 300 miles. But for all the pros there's a major con: there's no place to fill up a hydrogen car, and it's expensive to build hydrogen stations; they cost about $2 million a piece. "California has only nine or 10 [hydrogen] stations, and there are only 180 in the world," said moderator Brian Dumaine, senior editor at Fortune. "Where are you going to fill up a hydrogen car in California?" Lentz said that Toyota has been working with University of California at Irvine to determine the optimal location of stations and how many stations the state actually needs to satisfy about 10,000 fuel cell vehicles. "That number is 68," he said. Thanks to a $200 million investment by the state -- Toyota has invested $7 million of its own money was well -- California will have 30 stations by next year. "We're not that far away in California of having that initial hydrogen highway," Lentz said. And then there's the question of price? Toyota is known for its affordability. Will a fuel cell car fit into that mold? Lentz told the Brainstorm Green audience that Toyota has about 100 fuel cell vehicles on the road already – each worth about $1 million. When the company introduces its fuel cell car to the general public next year, the cost will be about 5% of that – or $50,000, according to Lentz. There's no doubt Lentz is enthusiastic about his company's fuel cell future, but he said he knows other people might not feel the same way – yet. "If you look at hybrids, it took 15 years from when we first introduced it to go to a marketplace of over 500,00," he said. "I think you can assume a similar acceptance rate of fuel cells down the road." |
