中国楼市放缓错不在“鬼城”

    中国的房市正在下行，没人知道下行幅度有多大。政府上周公布的数据显示，中国越来越多城市的房价下降。龙洲经讯（Gavekal Dragonomics）咨询公司分析师仔细分析了房价下降背后的原因，他们的研究发现对预计中国将经历房市低迷的人们来说令人鼓舞。

    龙洲经讯分析师咬丽蔷和托马斯•加特利发现，引领本轮房价下跌的并不是那些无人居住的小城，而是那些沿海热点城市。过去几年，北京以及上海、广州、深圳等房价高昂的沿海城市房产回报率达到每年20％-30％。龙洲经讯的结论是，上述城市的房市正在经历调整。

    开发商大举借贷，打造昂贵的沿海城镇，虽然进一步抬高了房价，但也导致自身资金链紧绷。

    龙洲经讯的分析师写道：“2013年底，销售增长开始放缓，开发商开始在部分城市降价促销，希望盘活现金流。降价主要集中在高房价城市，因为这些城市降价促销成功的机会最大。不幸的是，这些知名大都会是全国市场的领头羊，随着降价之说甚嚣尘上，全国的房产销量和市场情绪都受到了挫伤。”

    下图显示了2010年至2014年间高房价沿海城市的房价起伏（其中红色曲线代表高房价沿海城市、蓝色曲线代表其他高房价城市、黑色曲线代表适用房价城市）。

    China's housing market is heading downward, how severely no one knows. The government released data this week showing price declines in more cities. But analysts at Gavekal Dragonomics have zeroed in on the cause, and their findings are encouraging for those expecting China to muddle through a property downturn.

    Instead of small, ghost cities driving the price declines, Gavekal analysts Rosealea Yao and Thomas Gatley found that China's hot coastal markets are leading the declines. Expensive coastal cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and others that in past few years have posted property gains of 20%-30% a year. Gavekal's conclusion is that these areas are correcting themselves.

    Developers had borrowed heavily to build in expensive coastal towns, driving up prices further while stretching themselves.

    "And when sales growth slowed in late 2013," the analysts write, "developers starting cutting prices in some cities to boost sales and cash flow. The price cuts were focused in cities with high prices, because that's where they had the best chance of boosting sales. Unfortunately, those large, high-profile cities serve as bellwethers for the national market, and as word of falling prices spread, sales and sentiment were hurt across the country."

    The chart shows the rise, and fall, of pricey coastal markets.

    龙洲经讯等预期，本轮房市低迷至少将持续半年时间。尽管更悲观的研究人员认为，中国的房市不可持续，全面的房价暴跌正在到来，但眼下，他们经常挂在嘴边的鬼城并不是推动中国房市下行的原因。（财富中文网）

    译者：项航

    Gavekal and others are expecting a housing downturn to last for at least half a year. While more bearish researchers believe China's building is unsustainable, and a full-bore meltdown is coming, right now the ghost towns they often cite aren't driving a downtown.