数量VS.档次：汽车销售大战的路线之争

    “似乎BMW的一切精髓都已在车型大战中消失殆尽。”

    “当（梅赛德斯-奔驰）遭遇滑铁卢时，它的东施效颦能力较其他品牌有过之而无不及。戴姆勒被迫扩充车型数量，因为它没有其它汽车制造巨头的所拥有的资源作为依靠，而且还得硬着头皮去在这个竞争异常激烈的汽车产业中寻求自己的一席之地。”

    墨菲和德•罗伦索并不是在所有的观点上都格格不入。在最新一期的《汽车之战》中，墨菲单独例举了福特和本田，介绍了他们快速更换现有车型的举措。而且他还预测，在未来的三年中，这两家的市场份额都会增长0.5个百分点。德•罗伦索也很喜欢这两家公司。但是他担心，如果福特“放任自己不思进取，它的前景并不会太好。”同时他也为本田感到担忧，“它会再次摔倒而变得一蹶不振吗？”

    在这场对峙中，谁会成为赢家？《汽车之战》的分析有很多都值得称道。调查涵盖了1987年的新车型的数据，深度非比寻常。这项调查十分公正，就算偶尔会遗漏一些细节之处，但它以合理的方式准确地展现了公司相对于竞争对手的市场位置。但是从长远来看，《汽车之战》调查的价值可能会缩水。因为随着外国汽车制造商生产线扩充的完成，以及各大制造商的更新周期变得更为一致，市场份额的波动将会更小。

    德•罗伦索打的是喜好牌，而且很少让事实成为其有力观点的障碍。近几年，德国豪华车制造商的销售业绩接连创下历史新高，尽管人们对他们的低价车型和非传统车型的质量仍存在一些抱怨，但这些制造商不仅留住了现有的客户，还吸引到了新客户。虽然德•罗伦索是一个狂热分子，但他也有可能会反其道而行之。曾几何时，他曾强烈地抨击保时捷的多元化举措，即从跑车转向SUV（）和四门轿跑领域，然而如今，他却对这家公司“不懈的关注”和“无与伦比”的执行表示赞许。

    最后，在所有的要素中，执行才是决定成败的决定性因素。我们不妨看看捷豹和路虎的母公司塔塔。捷豹始终专注于轿车和轿跑，差点破产。如今，捷豹的第一款跨界车型XQ将于2017年面世。另一方面，路虎一直专注于做SUV，并因此而兴盛起来。即使路虎的跑车车型都具有越野能力，而且它目前也并不打算推出类似于active tourer这样的车型。（财富中文网）

    译者：Xiang

    • “Almost everything that made BMW a BMW has been lost in translation.”

    • “When [Mercedes-Benz is] off, well, they can stink up the joint like no other. Daimler is forced to stretch out its model lineup because it’s trying to fight a brutally competitive auto world without the resources of the other auto manufacturer conglomerates.”

    Murphy and De Lorenzo agree on some things. In the latest “Car Wars,” Murphy singles out Ford and Honda for their speedy replacement of existing models, and predicts that each will gain half a point of market share over the next three years. De Lorenzo likes both companies too. But he worries that if Ford “allows itself to get complacent, its prospects will be less than stellar,” and wonders about Honda, “will it stumble again and lose its way?”

    Who is the winner in this faceoff? The Car Wars analysis has a lot to recommend it. With statistics on new models going back to 1987, it possesses unusual depth. It is even-handed, and if it occasionally misses some fine points, it projects a reasonably accurate view of a company’s relative position in the market compared to its competitors. But Car Wars may be of less value going forward. As foreign automakers fill out their product lines and as all manufactures achieve more consistency in their product renewal cycles, there will be fewer big shifts in market share.

    De Lorenzo plays favorites and rarely lets the facts get in the way of a good argument. German luxury car makers are enjoying record years, and despite some grumbling about the quality of lower-priced models and unconventional body styles, they appear to be holding on to their existing customers at the same time as they attract new ones. Passionate though he is, De Lorenzo can shift gears. At one time a ferocious opponent of Porsche’s diversification away from sports cars into SUVs and four-doors, he now praises the company for being “relentlessly focused” and “peerless” in its execution.

    And in the end, it is execution more than anything else that determines success or the lack of it. Look at Tata, owner of both Jaguar and Land Rover. Jaguar concentrated on sedans and coupes for its entire life and nearly expired. Now the first Jaguar crossover, the XQ, is due in 2017. Land Rover, on the other hand, has stayed focused on SUVs and thrived. Even its Sport model is expedition-capable and there are no signs of an active tourer on the horizon.