澳大利亚“水期货”揭秘

    水交易对鲁尼来说可谓是“家传生意”。他父亲克雷格•鲁尼就是一位水经纪人。鲁尼在Waterfind的办公室里保存着一张1973年的文件，上面记录了他父亲早年安排的一笔生意。当时克雷格•鲁尼为了安排运水事宜，不得不挨家挨户敲农民和土地所有者的门。鲁尼说：“当时什么东西都是手写的——比如手写的合同，另外还要走非常复杂的政府手续。”

    等到老鲁尼的儿子接过家族生意后，他意识到，古老的水经纪生意可以凭借现代的电子股票和期货市场焕发青春。这也是他为什么创办Waterfind的原因。现在，一笔在他父亲的时代需要4个月才能完成的经纪业务，在Waterfind的网站上只需30分钟就能完成。

    要建立水期货市场，澳大利亚议会必须要通过新的法律。3月20日是这项法案通过的日子，也是Waterfind市场正式上线的日子。

    在此之前，经纪商和像Waterfind一样的交易所允许土地所有人、灌溉人或农民在现货市场上买卖即时生效的用水合同。农民可以以兆升为单位购买用水权，也可以在消费了一定数量的水后，将合同剩余水量还给土地所有人。

    引入期货交易后，由于不必再担心水的实物交付问题，或许将会有更多的投机者进行水交易市场。鲁尼认为，目前在Waterfind上交易水期货合同的人中，大约有五分之四是农民或土地所有人，剩下的五分之一则是投资人和交易员。

    期货交易可以让农民获得某种安心，就像棉花和玉米期货一样。他们不用再担心半年后收获或灌溉时的水价到底是高还是低。农民们喜欢通过买卖期货合同来锁定一个固定的价格。

    水资源问题权威、哈佛大学（Harvard University）环境工程教授、前世界银行执委约翰•布里斯科指出：“就像其它期货市场一样，水市场也有很大的不稳定性。期货市场……往往是买卖双方更有效地管理风险的一个非常重要的工具。”

    如何运作

    Waterfind的服务与其它电子期货市场差不多，只是细节之处略有不同。这家公司不像美国的交易所那样有一个正式的票据交换场所，但它下面有一个单位扮演了这个角色。合同上的各种预定交付日期、地点和价格让人想起了华尔街的“订制场外交易”衍生品市场，也就是银行为了满足买家或卖家的特殊要求而设计专门的金融合同。虽然Waterfind也在某些交易中扮演了经纪人的角色，不过大多数客户目前都是独立交易。

    用户在水期货电子市场上交易的感觉跟在石油期货电子市场上交易的感觉差不多。你加入交易所后，提交银行明细，在屏幕上就会出现两栏合同，即买进卖出委托单。上面有用每兆升的价格、交付日和水资源的大体位置。每栏上面都是自己的指令按钮，你可以点击“买进”或“卖出”。

    比如，期货市场上最近的一份报价显示有45兆升的水合同出售，水资源的位置在维多利亚省墨累古尔本地区的1A中古尔本灌溉区，交付日期是9月1日，价格为每兆升100澳元。一旦你点击了“买入合同”，Waterfind就会从你的账户中收取相当于合同价值20%的押金——这一点很像其它期货交易所收取的“保证金”。尾款最晚可以在交付日前14日支付。但如果你是个投机者的话，你肯定不希望到那个时候还没把合同转手。

    如果你是个农民，到时候需要运水灌溉的话，你的土地必须要位于合同上标明的特定区域内。到9月1日，Waterfind的软件会确保你购买的水可以交付。

    根据Waterfind提供的数据，过去三年，在澳大利亚的795个灌溉地区，短期用水权现货合同的平均水价大约在每兆升10美元到85美元之间跳跃。澳大利亚史上最大宗的水资源交易中就有几笔发生在这三年。但是随着2005至2009年澳大利亚遭遇大旱，水价在干旱最严重的2007年10月达到了最高值，当月澳大利亚的平均水价达到每兆升1000美元。

    这番辛苦是否值得？

    虽然在这次大旱中，澳大利亚的可用地表水和地下水萎缩了超过一半，但澳大利亚的农业产值只下跌了不到三分之一。有些人（包括鲁尼在内）都认为这充分说明了水商品市场的作用。很多人认为，通过给水定价的市场机制，确保了大量的水没有白白浪费。灌溉地区的农民每亩地产出的粮食增加了，使用的水反而减少了。鲁尼说：“在自由和开放的市场上，人们才能认识到水的可贵，同时利用水创造最高的产能。”

    Rooney was born into the water business. His father, Craig Rooney, was a water broker. In the Waterfind office, Rooney keeps a 1973 document recording of one of the first transactions his father arranged. Craig Rooney had to knock on the doors of farmers and landowners to arrange the transfer of water. “Everything was manual—manual contracts, and really complex government systems to go through,” Rooney says.

    When Rooney the younger took over the family business, he realized the antiquated water brokerage business could benefit from electronic stock and commodity market methods. That’s why he started Waterfind. Now, a transaction that would have taken his father’s brokerage four months to complete can settle on Waterfind’s site in 30 minutes, Rooney says.

    To launch its forward or futures market, the Australian parliament had to pass new legislation. The day the bill passed, March 20, was the day of the market’s launch.

    Up until then, brokers and exchanges like Waterfind had allowed landowners and “irrigators,” or farmers, to buy and sell rights with immediate effect on the “spot” market. Farmers would purchase the rights per mega liter, and then surrender them back to the landowner after a certain amount was consumed.

    The ability to trade futures without having to worry about taking physical delivery of the water could draw more speculative investors into the market. So far, Rooney estimates about four out of every five people who trade in Waterfind’s forward market are farmers or landowners while the rest are investors and traders.

    For farmers, the addition of futures to the exchange is supposed to provide the kind of peace of mind that came with cotton and corn futures. Rather than gambling on where the price will be at harvest or irrigation time six months from now, farmers like to lock in prices by buying or selling a futures contract.

    “Just as for these other markets, there is a lot of volatility in the water market,” says John Briscoe, professor of environmental engineering at Harvard University and a former World Bank executive who is considered an authority on water issues. “Futures markets … are one—often very important—instrument for both buyers and sellers to manage risks more effectively.”

    How it works

    Waterfind’s service works much like any other electronic futures exchange, with a few twists. The firm does not have a formal clearinghouse, as U.S. exchanges do, but one of its units acts in that capacity. The wide variety of custom delivery dates, locations, and prices on the contracts recall what’s known on Wall Street as a “bespoke, over-the-counter” derivatives market, where banks design financial contracts to specific requirements of the buyers or sellers. Unlike those markets, however, Waterfind displays quotes to all parties—one of the defining traits of an exchange. Waterfind also acts as a broker on some of the trades, though the majority of its clients now trade on their own.

    For the user, the experience is just like that of an electronic oil-trading market. You join the exchange, handing over your banking details. On your screen, you see two columns of contracts—buy and sell orders—with the price per mega-liter, date of delivery, and rough location of the water source. Each column has its own command button so you can click “buy on order” or “sell to order.”

    For example, a recent quote on the forward market showed a sell order for 45 megaliters of water on a temporary supply with a delivery date of Sept. 1 and a price of $100 a megaliter in the 1A Central Goulburn Irrigation Area of the Goulburn Murray region of the state of Victoria. Once you click on the command “buy on order,” Waterfind will take a deposit of 20% of the value of the water out of your account—much as other futures exchanges require a “margin” payment upon opening a trade. The balance is payable 14 days before the delivery date. As a speculator, of course, you will hope to have sold out of your position long before then.

    If you were a farmer who wanted to take delivery of the water, your land would have to be in the specific area named on the contract on Sept. 1. Waterfind’s software would ensure the water you bought was deliverable.

    According to data supplied by Waterfind, the average spot price of temporary water rights in the 795 irrigation regions in Australia has bounced between roughly $10 and $85 a megaliter for the last three years. Some of the highest volumes of water to date traded in Australia during those years. But the price peaked in October 2007, at the nadir of the drought that lasted from 2005 to 2009. The national average price that month was $1000 a megaliter, says Rooney.

    Worth the effort?

    While the ground and surface water available for use in Australia shrunk by more than half during that drought, agricultural production only fell by less than one third. Some people—including Rooney—say that proves water markets work. The idea is that by putting a price on water, the markets ensured that less was wasted. Farmers on irrigated land produced more food per acre while using less water. “(On) free and open markets, people could then realize the value of water and water shifted to highest productive use,” Rooney says.