孟山都的全球转基因种子生意为什么能稳赚不赔？
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过去几年来，华尔街一直对孟山都的前景有点不以为然，部分原因是因为市场反对转基因作物的呼声甚高。但近几个财季，分析师却开始逐步调高孟山都的股价。这家公司公布第一财季的业绩后，富国银行（Wells Fargo）就这么做了。今年四月，这家公司宣布又成功收获一个财季后，摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）也随之跟进。上周三，花旗集团（Citigroup）的P.J.祖维卡干脆称孟山都为“我们在农业领域最钟情的名字”，同时把它的目标股价设为125美元——而当天交易价格很快就超越这个价位（上周四，孟山都的股价略有回调，但仍然高于每股125美元）。 而在买方也同样可以看出这样高涨的情绪。就在五月，格伦维尤资本管理公司（Glenview Capital Management）的拉里•罗宾斯在佐恩投资会议（Sohn Investment Conference）上坚称，孟山都的股价——当时约为110美元——被严重低估了。尽管他对孟山都保持高达158亿美元“干粉”（现金）的“囤积资本”多有不满，但仍非常看好这家公司的前景。这家公司拥有“极高的准入门槛”，同时由于农户基本上都和它签订了终生协议，它还享有“永久性地区垄断”。他还指出，尽管未来15到20年中“玉米需求将翻倍”，但“种植面积却不会同步增加”，从而要求亩产量必须远高于现在的水平。他说：“在现实世界中，我们不可能按有机方式解决世界的饥荒问题。” 显然，并不是所有的人都认同这个判断，但华尔街却似乎很是赞同。农户们也是如此。（财富中文网） 译者：清远 |
For several years, Wall Street had been skittish about Monsanto’s prospects, in part because of the loud opposition to GMOs. No longer. Just over the past few quarters, analysts have been ratcheting up their target prices. Wells Fargo did so after the company’s first quarter results were announced. J.P. Morgan followed in April after another successful quarter. On Wednesday, Citigroup’s P.J. Juvekar called Monsanto “our favorite name in ag,” and set a price target of $125 — which was quickly surpassed in the day’s trading. (On Thursday, shares sank slightly, but were still trading just above $125.) Such sentiments are also found on the buy side. In May, Larry Robbins of the hedge fund Glenview Capital Management insisted during the Sohn Investment Conference that Monsanto’s shares — then trading at about $110 — were way undervalued. Though he complained about Monsanto “hoarding capital” with its $15.8 billion in “dry powder” (cash), he enthused about the company’s prospects. It enjoys “massive barriers to entry” and “perpetual local monopolies” thanks to farmers basically signing on with Monsanto for life. He noted that while “corn demand will double” over the next 15 or 20 years, “acres won’t,” necessitating far greater yields. “In the real world, we cannot solve world hunger on an organic basis,” Robbins said. Clearly, not everybody agrees with that assessment, but Wall Street sure seems to. And so do farmers. |
