亚太地区领衔，2030年全球可再生能源支出有望飙升

    上周二公布的一项能源财经报告显示，到2030年会有将近8万亿美元的资金投入到世界各地的新增发电量上，其中有三分之二的资金将投入到可再生能源技术领域。

    彭博新能源财经（Bloomberg New Energy Finance）公布的这份《2030年市场前景报告》预计，在5.1万亿美元的可再生能源新增开支中，亚太地区大约占据了一半的份额，之后是欧洲地区的9,670亿美元，中东和非洲地区的8,180亿美元，以及美洲地区的8,160亿美元。

    报告还预测，到2030年，化石燃料在总发电量中将仍然占据着44%的最大份额，但相比目前64%的比例将出现大幅下降。届时，在1,073千兆瓦新增发电量中，绝大部分将来自于印度和中国这些严重依赖于化石燃料来促进经济蓬勃发展的发展中国家。

    “相比其它一些主流预测，这种按国家和技术类别来区分的能源市场投资预测更看好可再生能源未来在总发电量中所占据的份额，主要是因为我们对持续成本降低抱有更加乐观的看法，” 彭博新能源财经咨询委员会的主席迈克尔•利布瑞查在一份声明中称。

    他补充说：“我们预计到下一个十年期结束时，全球二氧化碳排放量将会出现停止增长。但由于发展中国家的快速发展，发展中国家的化石燃料发电量以及可再生能源发电量都在持续增加，排放峰值的出现时间只会不断延后。”

    可再生能源将在欧洲地区保持强劲增长势头，报告预计到2030年它将会增加60%；与此同时，煤炭和天然气一类的传统矿物燃料的使用量将有望减少近三分之一。

    通过对电力市场供应和需求、技术成本演变以及个别国家和地区政策发展情况进行建模之后，这份报告还预测，到2030年，欧洲地区将会新增557千兆瓦的可再生能源发电量。而在同一时期内，随着排放法规的管制以及成本生成对比的结果逐渐倾向于可再生能源，燃煤发电量将会从195千兆瓦萎缩至125千兆瓦。（财富中文网）

    译者：徐黄兆

    Nearly $8 trillion will be invested in new generating capacity around the world by 2030, according to an energy finance report released Tuesday, with two-thirds of that going to renewable technologies.

    The report, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2030 Market Outlook, predicts Asia-Pacific will see about half of the $5.1 trillion in new spending on renewables, followed by $967 billion in Europe, $818 billion in the Middle East and Africa, and $816 billion in the Americas.

    The report predicts that fossil fuel will still provide the biggest share of power generation by 2030 at 44 percent, although that is a significant drop from current rates of 64 percent. Most of the 1,073GW in new capacity will come in developing countries, such as India and China, which depend heavily on coal to feed their booming economies.

    “This country-by-country, technology-by-technology forecast of power market investment is more bullish on renewable energy’s future share of total generation than some of the other major forecasts, largely because we have a more bullish view of continuing cost reductions,” Michael Liebreich, chairman of the advisory board for Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said in a statement.

    “What we are seeing is global CO2 emissions on track to stop growing by the end of next decade, with the peak only pushed back because of fast-growing developing countries, which continue adding fossil fuel capacity as well as renewables,” he added.

    Renewables will continue their strong growth in Europe, with the report projecting they will increase by 60 percent by 2030, while traditional fossil fuels such as coal and gas are expected to drop by nearly a third.

    Modeling electricity market supply and demand, technology cost evolution and policy development in individual countries and regions, the report forecasts that 557GW of new renewable power capacity will come online in Europe by 2030. In the same period, coal-fired capacity will shrink from 195GW to 125GW, as emission regulations take hold and the cost-of-generation comparison shifts in favor of renewables.