黑莓股价飙升之谜

    黑莓（BlackBerry）确实今不如昔，但根据今年的股价走势，这家智能手机制造商看来还没打算跟世界彻底告别。

    今年初以来，黑莓的股价上涨了近45%，周二收盘时报10.94美元。对任何一只股票而言，这样的表现都相当出色，更不用说黑莓这样的公司——在许多人眼中它已经无足轻重，而且濒临倒闭。数字领域分析机构康姆斯科（comScore）提供的数据显示，黑莓在美国智能手机市场中的份额只有2.3%，而安卓（Android）和苹果公司（Apple）的份额分别为52.1%和41.9%。

    股价反弹是否意味着黑莓可能东山再起呢？未必。但这家公司的一些动向显然让投资者感到兴奋。

    科技行业研究机构高德纳（Gartner）副总裁肯•杜拉尼说：“他们的主要成就是削减成本。”5月份，黑莓推出了专门针对印尼市场的Z3智能手机。这款5英寸触屏手机最引人关注的是低廉的价格，而不是功能——它的售价仅为190美元。这也是黑莓和富士康——iPad、iPhone和Kindle电子书阅读器的台湾代工厂商成为合作伙伴后推出的首批产品之一。此前，黑莓曾将手机制造业务外包，而这次跟以效率闻名的富士康合作则是为了在收入不断下降之际提高成本效率。黑莓第一财季收入大幅下跌69%，下降到了9.66亿美元。

    杜拉尼解释说：“投资者并不关心今后两年（黑莓）是否会倒闭。如果人们觉得它的情况会在一段时间内得到改善，就会对它投资。”

    除了削减成本，另一个让人感兴趣的问题是，黑莓能否找到赚钱的新途径。这家公司寄希望于面向新兴市场的新产品以及更好的企业软件。在新兴市场，黑莓手机仍然得到了比较广泛的应用，改进后的企业软件也将在今年底之前推出。

    但这些也许还不够。杜拉尼认为，这家公司应该放弃拥有黑莓手机操作系统的尝试，转而采用更受欢迎的安卓系统。他还提出了一个更大胆的建议：将黑莓拆分开来。这样，它的某些产品，比如每月仍有8000多万用户的短信服务，就更有可能生存下来，而且不需要承受一家大公司在扭转颓势的过程中所面临的压力。

    杜拉尼指出：“如果想保持完整，黑莓的手机销量就得提高许多许多。”这有可能，但随着竞争对手不断降低产品价格，这种可能性正变得越来越渺茫。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    BlackBerry is far from what it used to be, but based on its stock performance this year, the smartphone maker isn’t ready for a burial just yet.

    BlackBerry shares have climbed nearly 45% this year to $10.94 on Tuesday. That’s pretty remarkable performance for any stock, let alone that of a company many shrugged off as irrelevant and nearly defunct. BlackBerry’s U.S. market share among smartphones is an anemic 2.3% versus Android’s 52.1% and Apple’s 41.9%, according to comScore.

    Are rebounding shares one sign of a possible BlackBerry comeback? Not necessarily. Although investors are clearly excited about something happening over at Waterloo.

    “The primary thing they’ve done is cut costs,” says Ken Dulaney, a vice president at Gartner, a tech research firm. In May, BlackBerry began selling the Z3 smartphone exclusively in Indonesia. The 5-inch, touchscreen device is more notable for its affordability – it costs $190 – than features. It was also one of the first products to emerge from a partnership with Foxconn, the Taiwanese manufacturer responsible for churning out iPads, iPhones, and Kindle e-readers. Previously, BlackBerry contracted out its phone manufacturing, but a new partnership with Foxconn – a notoriously efficient business - is intended to be more cost-efficient in the face of declining revenues, which plunged 69% to $966 during BlackBerry’s first quarter.

    “Investors don’t care if it [BlackBerry] goes out of business in the next two years,” explains Dulaney. “If there’s a perception that it’s doing better for a period of time, they can invest in it.”

    Besides slashing costs, Chen has also expressed interest in finding new ways for BlackBerry to make money. It’s banking on new devices for emerging markets where the brand remains more widely-used, as well as better enterprise software that is due out by the end of the year.

    That may not be enough. While Dulaney suggests BlackBerry give up trying to own the software operating system its devices run for the more popular Android he suggests a more radical approach: splitting the company up so products like its messaging service, which still has 80 million-plus users monthly, have a better shot at surviving without the pressures of a larger company in turn-around mode.

    Adds Dulaney: “If BlackBerry wants to stay a single entity, they’ll need to sell millions and millions more devices.” Possible, but more and more unlikely as the competition’s prices continue to drop.