特斯拉是“终极动力股”吗？

    如果这个目标真的能够实现，届时特斯拉的规模将超过林肯（Lincoln）和保时捷（Porsche）等豪车品牌的美国分支。这两个老字号豪车品牌都有更多样化的产品阵容、长期的经销商网络、成熟的营销和广告策略。特斯拉如果真的能卖出预期的数字，那么其销量的半数将来自现有的Model S轿车，其它一半则来自明年年初才会量产的Model X七座跨界车。

    这里并不是要给特斯拉浇一瓢冷水。它已经证明自己具有生产一款复杂、先进且外观诱人的产品的能力。但无论是特斯拉自己的内部预测，还是投资人对其股票的追捧，都基于同样一个预期，那就是特斯拉未来依然会延续最近的大热势头。这是一种危险的假设，原因如下：

    • 特斯拉是一款富人车。在均价85,000美元的水平线上，可以说买特斯拉的人没人会在意汽油钱。特斯拉在续航里程上的短板，也说明了它绝对不会是车主家里的唯一一辆车。如果这些人的新鲜劲儿过去了，特斯拉的订单储备就会缩水，也会像其它厂商一样需要为销量打拼。

    • 特斯拉的规模越大，运营的复杂性就越强。由于它直接销售给终端顾客，免去了特许经销商的环节，它必须开发一个自己的服务中心网络来进行售后维修保养。另外它独特慷慨的保修条款规定，车主在使用三年后，可以以原价50%的价格将车卖还给特斯拉。这种做法可能会催生一个二手特斯拉的专门渠道。“寻找阿尔法”上的一位博主写道：“等到车主觉得他们的车不像一年前那么诱人和罕见，特斯拉可能会吃进大量有三年车龄的二手车。在我看来，这是个潜在的麻烦。”

    • 电池电力可能最终被证明是一种过渡性技术。最近电池成本的降低速度已经放慢了，特斯拉曾经承诺要在2017年生产出价格在35,000美元左右的Model 3。要实现这个目标，特斯拉的电池成本需要下降30%。相比之下，丰田（Toyota）最近的举动非常出人意料。它与特斯拉签订的电池供应协议即将期满，但丰田并未续约，而是准备加倍投入研发氢燃料电池。燃料电池的成本下降速度要快于普通电池。而且燃料电池的拥趸们认为，车主肯定会更喜欢充电速度相对更快的燃料电池，而不是要为充电等上好几个小时。

    • 外部事件的影响。《消费者报告》（Consumer Reports）杂志曾经对Model S大加吹捧，但最近该杂志也报道了它的一些常见故障，包括门把手失效，中控触屏白屏，导致车内大部分功能不能使用等等。汽车网站Edmunds.com也找了Model S的麻烦。更多此类报告无疑会影响特斯拉到目前为止非常正面的声誉。

    不过目前来看，这些潜在的乌云似乎都没有遮住特斯拉在帕洛阿尔托总部的阳光。特斯拉仍然坚持在2020年之前年产50万辆汽车的中期目标。这在很大程度上要取决于Model X是否有能力维持当前的势头。特斯拉已经大大提高了资本和研发支出，以确保Model X的顺利发布（虽然已经推迟了一年）。

    摩根士丹利的分析师乔纳斯认为，Model X的销量将会更加可观，但不是由于它的燃油经济性，而是它升级后的信息娱乐系统，以及独特的“鹰翼”式后车门。他还表示，如果Model X没有赢得所有的年度车型大奖，他会非常失望。他并不是唯一一个这样想的人。埃隆•穆斯克和其他很多祈祷特斯拉继续保持当前势头的人当然也会这样想。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    Selling that many cars would make Tesla larger than the U.S. arms of luxury makers like Lincoln and Porsche, both of which have more diverse product portfolios, long-established dealer networks, and refined strategies for marketing and advertising. Half the sales would come from the aging Model S sedan and the other half the new Model X seven-seat crossover that goes into production early next year.

    This is not to take anything away from Tesla, which has demonstrated that it can create and manufacture a complex and sophisticated product with demonstrated customer appeal. But its own internal forecasts, as well as the swelling of its share price, are based on the expectation that the future will unspool in an orderly fashion identical to the recent past. That’s a dangerous assumption to make – for several reasons:

    • Tesla is a car for rich people. With an average price of $85,000, it is safe to say that few Tesla owners are buying one to save money on fuel, and the car’s range limitations mean that a Tesla is never the only car in an owner’s garage. At some point, these same people will stop viewing Tesla as the flavor of the month, its order backlog will shrink, and Tesla will have to scrap for sales like other manufacturers.

    • The bigger Tesla gets, the more complex its operations become. Since it sells directly to customers and eschews franchised dealers, it will have to develop a network of service centers to handle repairs on the cars it sells. Its unusually generous warranty, which obligates it to buy back used cars for 50% of their original base price after three years, could create a second channel of used Teslas. “Tesla will be eating a lot of three-year-old cars that aren’t as sexy or rare as they were a year ago,” wrote one Seeking Alpha blogger. ‘To me, it sounds like a potential mess.”

    • Battery power may turn out to be a transition technology. Cost reductions have been slow in coming, and Tesla needs a 30% improvement in order to build the $35,000 Model 3 it has promised for 2017. Toyota’s recent move was eye-opening. It is allowing a battery-supply deal with Tesla to expire and instead will redouble its work on hydrogen fuel cells. The cost of fuel cells is coming down faster than batteries and fuel cell proponents believe drivers will prefer a relatively rapid refuel with hydrogen to waiting hours to recharge their batteries.

    • Outside events can intrude.Consumer Reports, which raved about the Model S, reported a few “quirks” recently that included door handles that failed to activate and a center touch screen that went blank, blocking access to most of the car’s functions. Edmunds.com has had trouble with its Model S too. More reports like that will dent Tesla’s heretofore shining reputation.

    • None of these potential clouds appear to darken the sunny view from Tesla headquarters in Palo Alto. Tesla is sticking with its middle term goal of building 500,000 cars a year by 2020. Much will depend on the ability of the Model X to maintain the current momentum – and mystique. Tesla has steeply ramped up spending on capital expenditures and R&D to make sure the launch, already a year behind schedule, is a success.

    Morgan Stanley’s Jonas believes the Model X will sell more based on features like its upgraded infotainment system unique “falcon-wing” back-seat doors than fuel economy and he will be disappointed if the Model X doesn’t win every major car of the year award. He isn’t alone. So will Elon Musk and a whole lot of Tesla investors who pray that the momentum behind this amazing stock keeps building.