穿越迷雾：看SpaceX的真正价值，要看它的竞争对手

    航天和军工分析机构Tauri Group的行业分析师凯特•马利加说：“它们已经开始采取对策，或者正在寻找最佳的应对方法。但这很难，特别是考虑到欧洲政府和行业的复杂结构。今后一、两年它们基本上将束手无策，但它们觉得自己需要这样做，而且也会进行尝试。”

    马利加指出，在竞争对手难以招架之际，SpaceX看起来也许一帆风顺，但无论如何也不能说它已经征服了这个行业。卫星公司本质上都厌恶风险，而且没有哪家公司愿意把自己价值数百亿美元的设备都交给同一家发射服务供应商。尽管SpaceX让业界对它越来越有信心，但几十年来，Arianespace一直都能做到成功而准时地发射，而SpaceX在准时方面做得并不如意。马利加举例说，对于转播世界杯赛事的卫视来说，卫星发射受到延误所产生的成本可能比Arianespace和SpaceX之间价差要多得多。也就是说，SpaceX的成功并不会让要价较高的竞争对手遭受灭顶之灾，至少现在还没有。

    军工和航天业咨询机构Avascent高级分析师乔恩•贝兰德指出：“目前还没有谁能给别人带来生死攸关的威胁。航天器发射领域会在行业新军到来后重新洗牌，历史上这种情况反复出现。现在下结论还为时过早。”（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    “They’re already responding, or trying to figure out the best way to respond,” says Kate Maliga, an industry analyst at aerospace and defense analysts Tauri Group, of SpaceX’s competitors. “But it’s hard, especially with the complicated structure of European governments and industry. There’s very little they can do in the next year or two, but they feel like they need to respond and they will try.”

    SpaceX may seem to be riding as its competitors struggle to adapt, but the company has by no means conquered the industry, Maliga says. Satellite companies are by nature risk-averse, and no company wants to have only one launch provider handling all of its multimillion-dollar hardware. Though SpaceX continues to build industry confidence, Arianespace already has a decades-long established record of launching successfully and on time—the latter something SpaceX has struggled with. For satellite television providers broadcasting the World Cup, for instance, a delay in launching a satellite can cost many more millions than the price disparity between Arianespace and SpaceX, Maliga says. Which means SpaceX’s successes do not spell doom for its more expensive competitors, at least not yet.

    “I don’t see anyone being an absolute existential threat to anyone at this point,” Jon Beland, a senior analyst at defense and aerospace industry consultancy Avascent, says. “The launch industry has historically undergone cycles where new entrants enter the field and shuffle the cards around. It’s still too early to tell.”