Space X公司最大的挑战有哪些

    规模化。一个公司不可能每天都发射火箭——全球各地的发射时间和基础设施都非常有限。而如果要保持目前的发展轨迹，Space X公司就要实现规模化。一个位于博卡奇卡海滩（Boca Chica Beach，地处德州和墨西哥边境）的全新发射装置——该公司已经在佛罗里达州卡纳维拉尔角建立了发射装置——将提供更大的发射能力，不再受到无法掌控的其他因素影响。但在保持可靠性和安全记录的同时，该公司还必须提高火箭的生产能力，从而使这项据称是该公司的最大试验得以继续进行。马丽嘉称：“如果公司今年能发射8次，那就很棒了。他们说今后每年能发射10到15次，真能这样的话，那肯定会对其他对手构成重大威胁。”

    重复使用能力。今年Space X开始试验可重复使用的一级火箭，将来它可以回收、翻新，多次发射。考虑到航空发射企业绝大多数沉没成本都是发射一次即告销毁的多级火箭带来的，这种新型火箭将极大改善航空发射的经济性。

    最后这一点尤其重要，因为它将再次影响该公司竞争的跟进能力。New Space Global公司的戴维表示，每次火箭发射中推进剂的成本占十分之三。其他成本主要来自抛掉剩余硬件。其中又有四分之三和一级火箭有关。对总价值高达2000亿美元的卫星发射市场来说，解决重复使用的问题不仅能大幅降低发射成本，第一个能实现这一点的公司还将带来大量新客户。Space X的可重复使用一级火箭技术还有待成熟完善，但它确实是唯一一家开展这类试验的公司。

    在竞争对手纷纷缩减开支、重组并学会竞争之际，Space X的真正价值与其能募得多少资金关系不大，而是更多地与该公司能否可靠地扩大生产规模有关。商业航空发射业正处于“适者生存、优胜劣汰”的关键历史关头。就目前而言，是Space X正在推动整个行业的发展。

    戴维表示：“如果大家担心鹰隼9号火箭的成本太高，他们也应该放眼展望未来，因为Space X公司正在开始做所有卓越科技公司都会做的事情：颠覆自己的技术。现在只是关注鹰隼9号并想和它一决雌雄，同时无视未来大势，就好比多年前当苹果公司（Apple）首次推出iPod时，竞争对手一心想击败这款产品，却不考虑苹果将来可能推出iPhone和iPad一样。”（财富中文网）

    译者：清远

    Scalability. Launching rockets isn’t the kind of thing a company can do every single day—there are limited launch windows and a limited amount of infrastructure in the world capable of launching them. To continue on its current trajectory, SpaceX has to scale. A new dedicated launch facility at Boca Chica Beach on the Texas-Mexico border—it already launches from Cape Canaveral in Florida—will offer greater capacity to launch independent of other factors beyond its control. But SpaceX will also have to scale its rocket production capacity while maintaining its record of reliability and safety, making this arguably the company’s biggest test going forward. “If they can get up to eight [launches this year] that’s great,” Maliga says. “They say they’ll do 10 to 15 per year, and if they get to that point that would be quite a threat.”

    Reusability. This year, SpaceX began experimenting with reusable first rocket stages that could one day be recovered, refurbished, and used for multiple flights. Considering most of the sunk costs in the space launch enterprise go into rocket stages that are used once and destroyed, this could significantly alter the economics of space launch.

    That last point is particularly important, as it will once again impact SpaceX’s competitors ability to keep pace. Three-tenths of one percent of the cost of a rocket launch is tied up in the propellant, New Space Global’s David says. Most of the remaining cost comes from throwing away the rest of the hardware. Of that, three quarters is tied up in the first rocket stage. Solving the reusability problem will not only drive down the cost of launch for the $200 billion satellite market, but the first company to get there will open up space for a host of new customers as well. SpaceX still has a ways to go before its reusable first stage technology is anywhere near mature, but it’s the only company actually experimenting with anything of the sort.

    SpaceX’s true value has less to do with how much money it has raised and more more to do both with its ability to reliably scale as its competitors retrench, regroup, and learn to compete. The commercial space launch industry is in the midst of an adapt-or-die moment. For now, SpaceX is driving it.

    “If everyone is worried about the cost of the Falcon 9, they also should be looking down the road because SpaceX is already doing what all good tech companies do: disrupting its own technology,” David says. “Looking at the Falcon 9 today and attempting to compete with it while ignoring the future is like being a competitor to Apple many years ago when they first introduced the iPod and neglecting to consider the possibility of the iPhone and the iPad.”