别被忽悠了：美国仍存在赤字问题

    但这可能使人产生误解。按照经济形势进行调整后，政府赤字实际上会变大。正如国会预算办公室和其他机构预计的那样，今后几年的美国经济将继续处于长期缓慢复苏状态，美国经济差不多要到2018年才会非常接近充分就业水平。随着税收逐渐增多，失业救济等支出项目不断减少，经济好转将自动降低赤字。为区分经济的作用和政策的作用，分析师考察的是剔除了周期性因素的赤字，它消除了经济周期的影响，以便更有意义地观察赤字情况。

    如图所示，剔除周期性因素后，今后十年政府赤字预计将急剧上升，今明两年将占GDP的1.5%左右，随后几年这个比例将超过3.5%（在更为现实的财政环境下，随后几年的政府赤字占GDP的比率将达到约3.8%）。在充分就业状态下，赤字占GDP的比率达到3.5%是个严重问题——这是1990年以来的最高点。当时，决策者认为赤字致使布什总统违背了他自己做出的“仔细听着，我不会增加税收”这一承诺，并促使国会通过了一揽子削减赤字措施，还进行了重大预算改革。

    长期财政政策不会带来危机。它甚至都不是目前美国经济面临的最重要问题——现在最重要的是加快经济复苏。财政情况不应该妨碍基于这些原则而进行的调整。在过去几年中，对赤字的预期不断下降，而且存在不确定性。

    不过，不要把这些和宣称我们赢得了债务战争胜利混为一谈。我们还有很长的路要走，还需要用合适的方法在合适的时候通过选择财政政策来争取很多东西。

    比尔•盖尔在布鲁金斯研究所（Brookings Institution）经济研究项目Arjay and Frances Miller Chair教席研究员，专攻联邦经济政策，是税收政策、财政问题、退休金和储蓄行为专家。他还是该研究所税收政策中心联席主任和退休保障项目的负责人。(财富中文网)

    译者：Charlie

    But this can be misleading. Adjusted for the state of the economy, the deficit is actually getting bigger. As CBO and others project, the long, slow economic recovery will continue the next few years, bringing the economy very close to full employment by about 2018. The improvement of the economy reduces the deficit automatically as tax receipts rise and payments for programs like unemployment compensation fall. To separate the effects of the economy from the effects of policies, analysts examine the cyclically adjusted deficit, which removes the effects of the business cycle for a more meaningful look at the state of the deficit.

    As shown in the figure, the cyclically adjusted deficit is projected to rise sharply over the decade, from about 1.5% of GDP this year and next to more than 3.5% in the out years. (Under a more realistic alternative fiscal scenario, the cyclically adjusted deficit rises to about 3.8 % of GDP in the out years.) A full employment deficit of 3.5% of GDP is serious — the highest since 1990, when policy makers saw deficits caused Bush to violate his own “read my lips, no new taxes” pledge and led lawmakers to enact a deficit reduction package and significant budget reforms.

    Long-term fiscal policy is not a crisis. It is not even the most important issue facing the economy this moment – strengthening the recovery is – and the fiscal situation should not stand in the way of changes along those lines. Deficit projections have come down the last few years and are subject to uncertainty.

    But don’t confuse these points with claims of victory in the debt wars. There is still a long way to go and a lot to gain from dealing with fiscal policy choices – in the right way at the right time.

    Bill Gale, the Arjay and Frances Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy in the Economic Studies Program at Brookings Institution, is an expert on tax policy, fiscal issues, pensions, and saving behavior. He is also co-director of the Tax Policy Center and director of the Retirement Security Project at Brookings.