思科CEO钱伯斯的退休疑云

    “网络行业很残酷”

    Pund-IT公司首席分析师查尔斯•金表示：“无论以什么指标来衡量，约翰•钱伯斯这一路走来都取得了令人瞩目的成就。”

    1995年，当时46岁的钱伯斯开始担任思科首席执行官。彼时，互联网的兴起推动思科急剧发展壮大，公司的路由器和交换机很快被视为日益网络化世界的重要支柱。2000年3月，思科曾一度超越微软(Microsoft)，成为全球最具价值的公司，此后经历了诸多困难时期：几轮裁员、并购失败（还记得收购Flip摄像机公司那场闹剧吗？），股价低迷。

    近年来，随着新兴技术趋势不断挑战思科的核心业务，钱伯斯领导的这家公司也一直承受着巨大的压力。举例来说，软件定义网络(SDN)比传统的网络设备成本更低且更灵活，而思科当年正是靠传统网络设备成名的。

    思科确实找到了应对之策，那就是收购Insieme。（钱伯斯在公司最近的财报电话会议上表示：“我认为SDN是未来的趋势，我们会从中受益”。）但是，金指出，尽管思科在其核心网络市场仍然是领先者，而且在x86服务器这样的新领域运营良好，仍然有人“抱怨思科行动太迟缓，创新产品也少于其他公司。”。

    负责与451 Research研究公司协作的研究主管彼得•克里斯蒂表示：“整体而言，互联网是个残酷的行业，因为它不像计算机，应用程序并没有发生太大的变化，交换还是交换，路由还是路由，然而半导体的进步已使成本商品化，且对价格构成下行压力。钱伯斯推动了许多尝试，以拓展思科的产品组合，并抢占更大的市场份额。有些尝试很成功，如服务器计算和IP电话，有些并不成功，如Flip摄像机。”

    那些失败的案例成为批评者们要求钱伯斯退休的理由。而支持者则表示，钱伯斯表现出了韧性和愿意冒险尝试的信心。

    451 Research研究公司资深分析师克里斯汀•雷诺在20世纪90年代末和本世纪初曾在思科钱伯斯手下工作了十多年。他赞赏钱伯斯在其任期内着眼于长远视角，而这往往是任期较短的首席执行官所忽视的。雷诺回忆道：“我刚开始在他手下工作时，公司只有1000多人，我离开的时候，他已经使思科成长为拥有65000人的公司。在他的领导下，思科成功抵御了大规模市场转型，不仅存活下来，而且实现了蓬勃发展。”

    钱伯斯的其他前同事也有类似看法。前思科高管杰西瑞•乌拉尔现在是思科竞争对手Arista Networks公司首席执行官，他说，“我认识他超过二十年，他领导思科经历起起伏伏，始终干劲十足、果断无畏，这令人钦佩。”

    担任首席执行官，在公司顺风顺水时会得到褒奖，在公司陷入困境时则会遭到指责。以思科的裁员为例，钱伯斯是促进公司增长的功臣，但同样要为裁员负责。雷诺表示：“我知道2001年的裁员令约翰很不好受，2009年的裁员也是一样。这对他来说也不容易，但这是每个企业发展周期的必经之路。”

    在其职业生涯的早期阶段，钱伯斯从事过多年的销售工作。可能正是这种背景，帮助他坚持了下来。《应用开发趋势》(Application Development Trends)特约编辑，《钱伯斯的思科之道》(John Chambers and the Cisco Way)一书作者约翰•沃特斯表示：“伟大的推销员都有一种特别的现实乐观主义态度。他们异想天开，同时又脚踏实地。此外，钱伯斯对客户极其关注，这些个性使他能稳坐首席执行官交椅。”

    ‘Networking is a brutal business’

    “John Chambers has had a remarkable ride by any measure,” says Charles King, principal analyst with Pund-IT.

    That ride began back in 1995, when Chambers, then 46, took Cisco’s top job. At the time, the rise of the Internet had put a lusty wind in Cisco’s sails, and the company’s routers and switches soon came to be viewed as key vertebrae in the backbone of an increasingly connected world. Since March 2000, when Cisco briefly edged out Microsoft as the world’s most valuable company, there have been plenty of rough patches: several rounds of layoffs, failed acquisitions (remember the Flip camcorder?), and lackluster stock performance.

    Cisco under Chambers has also been under considerable pressure in recent years from emerging technology trends that challenge its core businesses. One example? Software-defined networking, an approach that is considered to be cheaper and more flexible than the traditional networking equipment upon which Cisco built its name.

    Cisco does have an answer for that, which it calls Insieme. (“I see SDN as something we’ll embrace and get the benefits of,” Chambers said in the company’s most recent earnings call.) Still, there has been “some public grumbling about the company being late to that game and with less innovative products than some others,” King points out, even as Cisco remains the leader in its core networking markets and performs well in newer areas like x86 servers.

    “Networking as a whole is a brutal business because, unlike computing, applications haven’t changed that much—switching is switching and routing is routing—while semiconductor progress has commoditized costs and put downward pressure on prices,” says Peter Christy, a research director for networking with 451 Research. “Chambers has driven many attempts to broaden Cisco’s portfolio and grab more wallet share. Some, like server computing or IP telephony, have succeeded brilliantly. Others, like consumer efforts—e.g. the Flip camera—not so.”

    Those failed bets are fodder for critics calling for Chambers to retire. Supporters, meanwhile, say he has shown resilience as well as the confidence to make bets that may not work out.

    Christian Renaud, a senior analyst also with 451 Research, worked under Chambers at Cisco for more than a decade in the late 1990s and early 2000s. He credits Chambers’ tenure for a long-view perspective that short-term CEOs often miss. “He steered the company from just over a thousand people when I started working for him to over 65,000 when I left,” Renaud recalls. “Under his leadership, Cisco has successfully weathered large market transitions, and not only survived but thrived.”

    Other former colleagues tell a similar tale. “Having known him for more than two decades, I am amazed at his nonstop energy and decisive courage in navigating Cisco through both its highs and lows,” says ex-Cisco exec Jayshree Ullal, who is now chief executive of Arista Networks, which competes with Cisco.

    It is an inherent part of the CEO role that you get credit for the good times and blame for the bad. Take Cisco’s layoffs, for example—Chambers is equally responsible for those as he is for the company’s growth, Renaud says. “I know how much the layoffs in 2001 emotionally impacted John, as I suspect the layoffs in 2009 did as well,” he says. “This can’t be easy for him, but it is part of the cycle of every business.”

    Chambers spent many years in sales during the early part of his career. It’s possible that background may be part of what has helped him endure. “Great salesmen run on a special kind of real-world optimism. You know—head in the clouds, feet on the ground,” says John Waters, editor-at-large for Application Development Trends and author of John Chambers and the Cisco Way. “Add an almost devout focus on the customer, and you’ve got a combo of personal traits that surely helped to keep him in the big chair.”