思科CEO钱伯斯的退休疑云

    “我预计部分投资者有想法”

    在科技行业，钱伯斯担任首席执行官达二十年，这确实不寻常，但并非前所未有。目前的首席执行官中，动视暴雪（Activision Blizzard）的罗伯特•科蒂克、微芯科技（Microchip Technology）的史蒂夫•桑吉和Nvidia的黄仁勋，任期都超过了钱伯斯。Concur公司的史蒂芬•辛格和亚马逊（Amazon）的杰夫•贝佐斯的任期也没短多少。

    金说道：“IT行业首席执行官通常对自己的职业道路有决定权，除非客户或股东对他们失去信心。这通常有三种情况：首席执行官错过了行业的关键变革，在失败的产品上浪费大量资金，或未能向大型机构投资者提供理想的回报。”

    就钱伯斯的情况来看，最后一个原因是最迫切的问题。金说道：“就像在鲍尔默领导下的微软一样，过去十年，思科的股价一直陷于每股15美元至每股30美元的狭窄交易区间，而且思科股票也未能从重大的市场上涨中受益，在目前的市场涨势中也是如此。由于公司提供的股息较少，目前每股股息为0.19美元，而微软每股股息为0.28美元，IBM每股股息为1.10美元，我预计部分思科投资者可能有更换领导人的想法。”

    简化战略规划中心(Center for Simplified Strategic Planning)总裁兼首席执行官罗伯特•布拉德福德表示，思科的高管人员中有大量顶尖人才。他说：“如果公司处于更加艰难的战略形势下，思科可能会从外部聘请领导者。鉴于公司高管人员的表现，我认为不会从外部聘任。”

    高管理发展协会（Institute of Executive Development）创始人兼首席执行官斯科特•萨洛表示，钱伯斯已为顺利交接做好了一切准备。目前看来这个过程“近乎完美”，他表示，钱伯斯在几年前就宣布了退休的意图；他提出了具体高管人员作为继任者内部候选人；他离任时公司的财务状况将非常稳健。萨洛说：“同时做到这三点很难得。”

    萨洛补充道：“大部分董事会在面临转型时没有思科那么幸运。绝大多数董事会认为，他们没有足够的继任者来担任首席执行官一职。而钱伯斯表示，思科有好几位候选人，在这方面，该公司似乎遥遥领先于同行。”

    思科的退休传闻，一度令451 Research公司的分析师雷诺甚为担忧。现在他不再担忧了。雷诺说：“最近几年，约翰制定了良好的继任计划，并为不可避免的过渡，准备了强大的候选人阵容。不是每个首席执行官都能做到这一点，我要说，他的候选人阵容是我见过最强大的。如果钱伯斯退休，思科将运营良好。”（财富中文网）

    译者：Lina

    ‘I expect some investors are wondering’

    Chambers’ two-decade tenure is relatively unusual in the technology industry, but it’s far from unprecedented. Of those chief executives active in the role today, Activision Blizzard’s Robert Kotick, Microchip Technology’s Steve Sanghi, and Nvidia’s Jen-Hsun Huang exceed Chambers’ tenure. Concur’s Steven Singh and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos aren’t far behind.

    “IT CEOs typically call the shots on their career paths until they lose the faith of their customers or shareholders,” King says. That usually happens in one of three ways: Either the CEO misses a key evolutionary shift in the industry, wastes money on unsuccessful products, or fails to deliver the returns desired by large institutional investors, he says.

    In Chambers’ case, the last reason is the most pressing. “Much like Microsoft under [Steve] Ballmer, Cisco shares have for the past decade been mired in a fairly narrow trading range—between $15 and $30—and the stock has mostly failed to catch fire in major market advances, including the one currently under way,” King says. “Since the company offers only relatively small dividends—currently $0.19 per share, compared to $0.28 per share for Microsoft and $1.10 per share for IBM—I expect some Cisco investors are wondering how the company might fare under a different leader.”

    Cisco has plenty of top talent in its executive suite, says Robert Bradford, president and CEO of the Center for Simplified Strategic Planning. “If the company were in a more difficult strategic situation, they might look outside,” he says. “Given their performance, I wouldn’t.”

    Chambers has done all the right things to ensure a smooth succession, says Scott Saslow, founder and CEO of the Institute of Executive Development. The process so far seems “near perfect,” he says: Chambers has pre-announced his intentions years in advance; he has mentioned specific executives who are internal candidates for the job; he would leave the company on very solid financial footing. “It is rare to see all three of these conditions,” Saslow says.

    Most boards of directors facing a transition aren’t as lucky as Cisco’s will be, Saslowadds. “The vast majority don’t think they have enough ready successors for the CEO position,” Saslow says. “Given that Chambers has stated that Cisco has several, they appear to be way ahead of the market.”

    Cisco’s retirement rumors once worried Renaud, the 451 Research analyst. That’s no longer so. “John has done a great job in recent years of building a succession plan and strong bench in preparation for an inevitable transition,” Renaud says. “That wasn’t always the case, and I’d say his bench now is the strongest I’ve ever seen it. If he was going to retire, the company would be left in good shape.”