eBay、惠普等科技公司分拆，对云计算的未来有何预示？

    与此同时，特别令人感兴趣的是，现在无论是新成立公司的数量，还是新型企业科技所吸引的投资额，都呈现出显著的增长。为什么会产生这种“脱节”现象？企业科技为什么一方面遇冷，一方面又倍受青睐？

    最明显的答案是，经典的技术平台正在发生变革，它正朝着云计算平台方向转型。但另一个答案不太明显的问题是，这种平台变革正在什么地方，以什么方式发生？它是否预示着下一步将会发生什么事情？

    向云计算平台的转型首先发生在应用层面上。近年来，一批新建立的公司开始通过基于云技术的“软件即服务”模式向用户交付现有应用功能，比如客户关系管理应用Salesforce.com和人力资源应用Workday。

    向云计算平台转型的第二波发生在基础架构层面，如数据库、网络技术和存储技术等等。比如Nicira（已被VMware以12.5亿美元收购）的软件定义网络；Servicenow（最近刚刚上市）的系统管理技术；Arista Network（另一家最近刚刚上市的公司）的网络设备等等。

    与1999年至2000年那个时代不同的是，在那股风投资本进入新公司的热潮中，老牌科技公司是自然而然的受益者，也是尘埃落定后的幸存者。然而这一次，在向云计算平台的转型中，老牌科技公司很可能成为受害者。

    必须承认，传统的技术平台并没有完全消失。我们在过去几次平台转型中也曾发现，企业对依赖于这种技术架构的现有应用做了大量投资，所以要想一夜之间让它们退出历史舞台是不可能的。

    但是随着运用现代技术的新型应用不断出现，现有技术在很大程度上进入了“维护”模式。这意味着传统软件的销售收入将增长得越来越慢，最终会逐渐衰退，而维护与支持现有客户所产生的收益将成为其主要收入来源。比如，IBM公司的核心业务增长率连续9个季度下滑，其它大多数老牌科技公司也显现出了这种状况的早期征兆：大量现金流来自维护收入，而传统业务的销售收入显著减缓。

    那么在这波转型彻度完成后，谁将会继续屹立不倒呢？收购行为可以被视为一个很好的指标。比如SAP决定收购Concur，再加上此前它已经收购了SuccessFactors（该公司由安德里森•霍洛维茨基金合伙人拉尔斯•达尔加德创办），说明这家公司正在全力向云计算领域进军。SAP的收购战略说明它致力于成为云应用领域的领军者，正如上一次在向用户—服务器平台转型过程中，它在企业应用领域大获成功一样。

    While all this is going on, what’s particularly interesting is that the number of companies being formed and amount of dollars invested in new enterprise technologies is growing significantly. Why the disconnect? How can enterprise tech be both out of favor and wildly in favor?

    The obvious answer is that there’s a classic technology platform shift happening, driven by the move toward cloud-based computing. But perhaps less obvious is where, and how, this platform shift is happening. And what does it tell us about what may be coming next?

    The first elements of the cloud-computing shift took place at the applications level: New companies were created to deliver existing application functionality via a cloud-based, software-as-a-service (SaaS) model. Think of examples like Salesforce.com CRM -2.81% for customer relationship management, or Workday for human resources.

    The second elements of the cloud-computing shift are being seen at more infrastructural levels of the technology stack: databases, networking technologies, storage technologies, and so on. Think of examples like Nicira (acquired by VMware for $1.25 billion) in software-defined networking; Servicenow (a recent IPO) in systems management; or Arista Networks (another recent IPO) in networking equipment.

    But here’s the thing: Unlike in the 1999 to 2000 era, where established tech companies were the natural beneficiaries of venture capital investment into new companies (and turned out to be the survivors after all the dust settled), this time the established firms are potential casualties of a cloud-computing platform shift.

    To be fair, established technology platforms haven’t entirely disappeared. As we’ve seen in past platform shifts, enterprises have big investments in existing applications that rely on this infrastructure — so obsoleting them overnight is never an option.

    But as new applications take advantage of modern technologies, the existing technologies go largely into “maintenance” mode. That means that new revenue from licenses at legacy businesses starts growing more slowly and declines over time, while the annual maintenance and support streams from existing customers becomes the primary source of revenue. For example, IBM IBM -1.30% has reported nine straight quarters of declining top-line growth in its core business. And we are seeing early signs of this for most other established tech companies: Strong cash flows are being generated by the maintenance revenue streams, but new license revenue growth from the legacy businesses is slowing substantially.

    So who will remain standing in the aftermath of the current shift? Acquisition activity is one great indicator. That’s where news that SAP decided to acquire Concur, coupled with its previous acquisition of SuccessFactors (which was founded byAndreessen Horowitz partner Lars Dalgaard), signals that the company is leading the charge in evolving to the cloud-computing paradigm. Their acquisition strategy to date illustrates that SAP is committed to being a leading player in cloud applications in the same way as it created a massive enterprise applications franchise by riding the previous client-server platform shift.