摩根士丹利的“收入错觉”

    自古以来，“月亮大小错觉”就是一个令天文观察者着迷的天文谜题。为什么月亮在靠近地平线时看起来更大？一种广为接受的解释是“视距理论”，即树木和云彩等较小的物体使得月亮看起来更大。当月亮升上当空，它就变成了广袤天空中的一个亮点。该现象也适用于解释摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的交易收入情况。

    摩根士丹利股价自上周五以来的涨幅逾2%，部分原因是其交易收入增速超过同行。摩根士丹利的股票交易收入增长4%至18亿美元，增幅超过美国银行（Bank of America）和高盛（Goldman Sachs），也超出了华尔街的预期。据彭博社（Bloomberg）的数据显示，今年前9个月摩根士丹利的股票和债券交易收入增长3.8%，为六大华尔街银行中增长最快的一家。

    相对而言，这个消息令人鼓舞。从事交易业务的机构证券部门仍旧是摩根士丹利最赚钱的部门。

    但整体而言，交易占摩根士丹利的收入比重仍在萎缩。今年，这家银行的固定收益类和股票交易业务约占其总收入的30%。而2009年和2005年的占比分别为37%和48%。

    这在一定程度上与华尔街交易业务的整体缩水相关。交易佣金也在下降。据ITG的数据显示，截止到今年一季度，在过去10年中，平均单笔交易的佣金下降了65%，其中约四分之一的降幅发生在近两年。更多交易通过暗池或地区交易所完成。大型经纪商正在想方设法绕开传统的交易路径。

    摩根士丹利交易业务的萎缩，也可能与该公司其他业务收入的增长有关。这或许是一个能令投资者兴奋的点。但交易业务就像夜空中的月亮，当太阳落下后，它会看起来越变越小。（财富中文网）

    The moon illusion is an astronomical mystery that has fascinated sky watchers since ancient times. It attempts to explain why the moon looks larger as it sits on the horizon. A popular explanation is called the “apparent distance theory”: smaller objects, like trees and clouds, make the moon look larger. As it rises in the sky, the relative atmosphere makes it appear as a blip. Something similar may be said for Morgan Stanley’s trading earnings.

    Morgan Stanley’s MS 2.22% stock is up by over 2% since last Friday partly because trading revenue grew at a faster clip than the bank’s peers. Equity trading at Morgan Stanley rose 4% to $1.8 billion, more than both Bank of America BAC 2.09% and Goldman Sachs GS 1.32% , and it beat Wall Street’s estimates. Stock and bond trading revenue increased 3.8% for the first nine months of the year, the biggest gain among the top six Wall Street banks, according to Bloomberg.

    Relatively speaking, that’s encouraging. The bank’s institutional securities division, which houses its trading business, is still Morgan Stanley’s biggest moneymaker.

    But overall trading is still shrinking at Morgan Stanley as a share of its revenue mix. Fixed income and equity trading at the bank accounted for about 30% of the bank’s total revenue this year. It was 37% in 2009 and 48% in 2005.

    Part of the decreased share has to do with the bleed in Wall Street’s trading business in general. Trading commissions are coming down. Average commissions per trade have fallen 65% over the 10 years ending in in the first quarter this year, according to ITG, about 25 percentage points of that drop took place in just the past two years. More trades are being done in dark pools and regional exchanges. Large brokers are finding ways to sidestep traditional trading routes.

    Morgan Stanley’s trading has also shrunk because its other businesses are growing. That, perhaps, is what investors should be excited about. Much like the moon in an evening sky, as the sun sets on trading, it will continue to shrink.