油价下跌：现在还没到惊慌时候

    页岩油的蓬勃发展让人们认定石油开采，特别是页岩油的开采特别复杂和昂贵。但实际情况真的不是这样。石油水力压裂技术只不过是以高压向油井注入水和化学物质，这其实算不上尖端技术。20世纪40年代以来，钻井技术就一直如此，几十年来能源行业已经非常善于进行这样的工作。水平钻井等最近出现的技术进步则让压裂变得更简单、更有效率。

    不过，尽管石油开采变得更简单而且效率更高，生产成本却扶摇直上。为什么呢？有几个原因，但主要原因是高油价。哈里伯顿公司（Halliburton）和斯伦贝谢公司（Schlumberger）等油田服务商和石油开采企业商洽合同时，它们通常都会考虑油价。油价越高，它们的服务费用就越高。再加上过去几年低利贷款的激增，使得与油田服务行业有关的需求全面增长，从人员到物资，再到住房，无不如此。试问没有大学文凭的人在哪个行业能靠体力劳动从一开始就挣到六位数呢？在石油天然气行业就可以，特别是在北达科他州西部。在那里，麦当劳员工每小时挣20美元，而普通住宅的月租金会超过2000美元。

    不过，随着油价下跌，成本也会下降，“盈亏平衡”价格也会随之降低。经验丰富的石油从业者知道怎样做到这一点——他们需要演点儿戏，这有点像在土耳其市场讨价还价。首先，石油公司要捂着自己的胸口告诉服务供应商，由于油价暴跌，它们再也无力承担钻井费用。服务供应商就会给它们很小的折扣，但石油公司会拒绝。这就是我们讨价还价的惯式。

    让油田服务供应商急出点儿汗以后（通常要两到四个月），石油公司就会和前者取得联系，称自己正在“考虑”回到谈判中。此时，迫切希望开展业务的服务供应商就会愿意基于更低的油价重新洽谈一份全新的协议。这份新合同的目的是让石油公司的利润率接近之前油价高得多的时候。这样，利润就可以恢复到以往水平，而且皆大欢喜。

    在石油和天然气成本结构的各个部分都会出现这样的谈判。因此，年薪13.5万美元的电焊工可能会被降薪，而公司总部的行政人员可能得不到他们所依赖的丰厚奖金，钻井工人和工程师的工资和福利可能也会缩水。任何有怨言的人都会被“发配”到阿拉斯加，或者冬天比北达科他州西部还要难熬的地方，比如西伯利亚（我说真的）。同时，就像所有已经破裂的泡沫一样，资产价格将全面下滑，从油田租约到自升式钻井平台，再到休斯顿的联排别墅，都是如此。对了，在北达科他州西部，麦当劳员工的小时工资可能需要降到15美元。

    但石油生产将继续进行，或者说，将持续到油价真的让任何人都没有理由再去开采石油。

    那么在美国，可以支撑石油生产的最低油价是多少呢？水力压裂技术上次在美国大行其道是20世纪80年代中期，当时油价为每桶23美元左右。考虑通胀因素后，这相当于现在的50美元。这个繁荣期在油价跌至8美元左右时结束，按目前价格水平计算相当于大约18美元。鉴于上周油价跌至每桶63美元，看来在情况真正变得让人害怕前，油价还有非常大的下行空间。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审稿：Vera Han

    The shale boom has perpetuated the notion that drilling for oil, especially in shale formations, is somehow super complicated and expensive. It really isn’t. Fracking a well involves just shooting a bunch of water and chemicals down a hole at high pressure—not exactly rocket science. The drilling technique has been around since the 1940s, and the energy industry has gotten very good at doing it over the decades. Recent advances in technology, such as horizontal drilling, have made fracking wells even easier and more efficient.

    But even though drilling for oil has become easier and more efficient, production costs have gone through the roof. Why? There are a few reasons for this, but the main one is the high price of oil. When oil service firms like Halliburton and Schlumberger negotiate contracts with producers, they usually take the oil price into consideration. The higher the oil price, the higher the cost for their services. This, combined with the boom in cheap credit over the last few years, has increased demand for everything related to the oil service sector—from men to material to housing. In what other industry do you know where someone without a college degree can start out making six figures for doing manual labor? You can in the oil and gas sectors, especially in places like Western North Dakota. There, McDonald’s employees make $20 an hour and rent for a modest place can top $2,000 a month.

    But as the oil price drops, so will costs, bringing the “break-even” price down with it. Seasoned oil men know how to get this done—it involves a little Texas theater, which is sort of like bargaining at a Turkish bazaar. The producers will first clutch their hearts and tell their suppliers that they simply cannot afford to drill any more given the sharp slump in oil prices. Their suppliers will offer a slight discount on their services but the producer will say he’s “walking away.” This is where we are in the negotiating cycle.

    After letting the oil service firms sweat a bit (traditionally around two to four months), a producer will give their former suppliers a call, saying they are “thinking” of getting back in the game. Desperate for work, the suppliers will now be willing to renegotiate a whole new agreement based on a lower oil price. The aim of the new contract is to give producers close to the same margin they had when prices were much higher. Profits are restored and everyone is happy.

    This negotiation will happen across all parts of the oil and gas cost structure. So welders who were making $135,000 a year will probably see a pay cut, while the administrative staff back at headquarters will probably miss out on that fat bonus check they have come to rely on. Rig workers and engineers will see their pay and benefits slashed as well. Anyone who complains will be sent to Alaska or somewhere even worse than Western North Dakota in the winter, like Siberia (seriously). And as with any bursting bubble, asset prices will start to fall for everything from oil leases to jack-up rigs to townhouses in Houston. Oh, and that McDonald’s employee in Western North Dakota will probably need to settle for $15 an hour.

    But oil production will continue, that is, until prices reach a point at which it truly makes no sense for anyone to drill anywhere.

    So, what is the absolute lowest price oil can be produced for in the U.S.? Consider this—fracking last boomed in the U.S. back in the mid-1980s, when a barrel of oil fetched around $23. That is equivalent to around $50 a barrel today, when adjusted for inflation. That fracking boom went bust after prices fell to around $8 a barrel, which is worth around $18 in today’s money. With oil last week hitting $63 a barrel, it seems that prices have a lot more room to fall before things get really scary.