2015年汽车业17个大预测：从“无力”到“无畏”

    2014年，尽管汽车销量自2007年以来首次超过1600万辆，但占据媒体头条的还是各类召回事故。在召回舞台上最活跃的是通用汽车公司，由于不断曝出点火开关故障，通用今年已经召回了几百万辆汽车。这家汽车制造商选择勇敢曝光自己的失误，并公开发布了一份自查报告。而日本气囊生产商高田公司却对“气囊门”三缄其口，转而把补救措施留给其深陷困境的客户本田和丰田来实施。有问题的气囊爆炸后，会向驾驶室弹出致命碎片。

    在销量方面，通用和福特的部分市场份额被克莱斯勒蚕食，后者已经把Jeep品牌成功提升到此前难以想象的高度。随后，克莱斯勒将它的光辉历史抛在身后，将总部搬到荷兰，并更名为FCA US LLC。

    今年最令人惊喜的消息还包括油价下跌。经济学家对油价下跌的经济影响也是见仁见智，一方面认为消费者因此节省了不少油钱，一方面则认为这种趋势会影响石油的开采钻探活动。但大家普遍认为这会影响小型车和混合动力车的销量。油价下跌加上车价过高，使得凯迪拉克公司的电动轿跑ELR稳居2014年最不受欢迎的车型“宝座”。11月份，这款售价高达8万美元的电动跑车只卖出了155辆。

    那么，于汽车业而言，2015年又意味着什么？以下是一些有根据的猜测。

    汽车销量：2015年，汽车销量将达到1700万辆，但随着皮卡和SUV的走俏，各大厂商也会纷纷调整产能。低油价的压力将导致小型车的利润更加单薄。

    底特律三巨头：另两家底特律车企仍会遇到一些磕磕绊绊。通用还要继续应对“点火门”事件的余波，而福特将进入该公司有史以来最激进的产品发布期。

    日本三巨头：在本田的美国化管理团队将新品投放市场之前，该公司还会原地踏步，尤其是它的讴歌NSX超跑，这款车型已经在各大车展上亮相好几年了，但至今仍未上市。本田CEO卡洛斯•高森一边督促高管团队努力实现他的“三年计划”目标，一边培养继承人。《汽车新闻》报道称，丰田公司在携新产品搬离南加州工厂之前，正处于“马力全开”的状态。

    德系三巨头：由于奔驰的几款低价产品不可避免地会损害它“要么最好，要么什么都不是”(the best or nothing)的商誉，该公司也开始陷入低迷。而即将推出的新7系轿车则会进一步巩固宝马在美国富人圈中的地位。另外，起价30,795美元的奥迪A3，很可能会使奥迪的销量较2014年增长15%，新款Q7也将进一步提高奥迪的利润。

    中国厂商：中国汽车进军美国？巴菲特持股的比亚迪汽车公司称，它将于2015年登陆美国市场，吉利汽车也将于2016年进入美国市场。不过自2006年起，我们就一直在听说中国车企要登陆美国。中国汽车最大的硬伤是做工问题。中国有80多家汽车厂商，生产的车型多达524款，研发资金铺得太开，太单薄，以至于很难获得有意义的业绩。

    特斯拉：为了缓解外界对特斯拉电动汽车充电时间问题的诟病，特斯拉开始推出一个通过换电池快速充电的充电站网络。CEO埃隆•马斯克肯定希望自己的运气比夏伊•阿加西的Better Place公司好一些，这家公司在2013年破产前做的就是电池更换充电站业务。

    换总部：随着丰田迁至德州，奔驰从新泽西搬往北卡罗来纳州或乔治亚州，斯巴鲁也要建它的新总部了。它的一个选择是搬到离其客户群更近的佛蒙特州。

    CEO：作为汽车业新人，通用CEO玛丽•芭拉和福特CEO马克•菲尔兹开始密切观注菲亚特和克莱斯勒集团CEO的塞尔吉奥•马基奥尼的一举一动。虽然他的商业帝国横跨欧美两个大陆，但马基奥尼还是成功地把公司的美国市场份额提高了1.2个点，完全没有受到公司最弱的一条产品线以及八速变速箱问题的影响。

    奖项：尽管大众的高尔夫GTI先拔头筹，但偏向自家人的2015年北美汽车大奖的评审员们还是对福特的野马和F-150皮卡不吝溢美之辞。

    皮卡大战：如果把得奖的问题抛在一边，福特的全铝皮卡生产起来很不容易，卖得也比较慢，这就为快速崛起的道奇公羊（Dodge Ram）1500提供了机会。同时，日产也试图忘掉该公司第一款全尺寸皮卡，也就是采用双拖斗造型的第二代Titan皮卡的失利。汽车业老将约翰•克拉福西克向《汽车新闻》透露了这个行业的最大秘密：在5万美元以上的市场区间，平价品牌的皮卡和SUV的销量要超过德系豪华品牌。

    2015年最需要迎头赶上的品牌：由于产品线陈旧，大众今年的销量下降了11%，影响了费迪南德•皮切的“称霸全球”计划。沃尔沃的销量则下跌了17%，自从被中国车企收购后，该公司至今还没有任何进步。

    2015年风头最劲的品牌：在新款切诺基的拉动下，Jeep在2014年的销量惊人地拉高了44%，而斯巴鲁的销量则静悄悄地提高了21%，现已成为美国第十大最受欢迎的汽车品牌。

    替代燃料：自从柴油车于上世纪50年代从欧洲进入美国以来，人们对柴油车的热情首次冷却殆尽，取而代之的是马力高得吓人的雪佛兰CamaroZL1（580匹马力），和707匹马力的道奇挑战者SRT地狱火等车型。另外，续航里程更长的燃料电池汽车也开始登上舞台，从电池动力汽车那里抢走了不少风头。

    科技：凯迪拉克将在汽车的后视镜添加高清视频功能，其视野要比传统的后视镜开扩四倍，因为它能够在最大程度上减少了车柱和乘客对视线的影响，对于上了年纪的凯迪拉克车主和颈椎不好的人来说，这的确是个福音。下一个即将被广泛采用的技术，则是让汽车在倒车时，能够发出像垃圾车那样的“滴滴声”。

    自动驾驶汽车：研究人员正在研究能让汽车自动倒车入库的设备，让你甚至不必坐在车里就能完成倒车。这样你就不必在不小心刮蹭到别人的车时，往人家的雨刮器下面留张字条，并附上你的电话号码了。

    经销商：经销商们正在努力精简购车的文书手续以及时间。这会使他们留出更多的时间向消费者推销延长质保、喷漆、织物保护、防锈等附加服务。

    老爷车：由于今年在一个海外小岛上发现了一大批尘封50年之久的老爷车，导致现在二战后的老爷车的供给充足，价格也显著下降。收藏家们尤其喜欢Packards、Studebakers、Hudsons、Nashes、Kaisers和Henry J’s等型号的老爷车。更令人吃惊的是这批老爷车的车况都十分良好，能够满足日常使用。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    审校：任文科

    Despite car and truck sales that motored past 16 million for the first time since 2007, recalls dominated the news for most of the year. General Motors GM 1.42% held center stage, dealing with cascading revelations about faulty ignition switches and recalling millions of vehicles. While GM opted for something approaching full disclosure of its missteps , publishing an report into company-wide fumbles, Japanese airbag maker Tanaka chose to stonewall. It left any remedies up to its beleaguered customers, notably Honda and Toyota. They are the ones who deal with the fallout of exploding safety devices that fatally fired shrapnel throughout the passenger compartment.

    On the sales front, General Motors and Ford F -0.13% lost market share to Chrysler, which leveraged its Jeep brand to previously unimagined heights – and then, metaphorically left its heritage behind when it established legal domicile in the Netherlands and changed its name to FCA US LLC.

    Among the year’s biggest surprises was the plunge in gasoline pries. Economists differed on the economic impact—money in the pockets of consumers offset by declines in exploration and drilling activity—but everyone agreed that it was bearish for small cars and hybrids. The combination of cheap gas and a steep sticker price made the Cadillac ELR the runaway winner of the most disliked car of the year award. Only 155 of the Volt-based $80,000 cars found buyers in November.

    So what does 2015 portend? Here are some educated guesses.

    Auto sales: Car sales reach 17 million but manufacturers scramble to adjust capacity as trucks and SUVs soar in popularity. Pressure to hold down corporate fuel averages drives margins on small cars far below break-even.

    Detroit Three: The other two Michigan-based manufacturers still face bumps. General Motors copes with continued fallout from its ignition switch recall while Ford fights through the most aggressive launch period in the company’s history.

    Japanese Three: Honda treads water while it waits for bold new designs from its Americanized management team to reach market, particularly the Acura NSX super car, which has been on the auto show circuit now for several years. Focused now on his legacy, CEO Carlos Ghosn drives executives even harder to meet targets in his latest three-year plan while he grooms a successor. As for Toyota, Automotive News declares that it is firing on “all cylinders” before its move from Southern California with fresh products in key segments.

    German Three:Mercedes-Benz begins to sag as new lower-priced Benz’s inevitably erode its once invincible “the best or nothing” status. At BMW, imminent arrival of a new 7-series cements its status as the preferred brand of Scarsdale, Shaker Heights, and Santa Monica. A new A3, starting at $30, 795, should nicely lift Audi’s sales beyond 2014’s 15% climb, and a new Q7 SUV should nicely lift profits.

    Chinese manufacturers:Coming to the U.S.? Warren Buffett’s BYD says it is arriving in 2015 and Geely in 2016 but we’ve been hearing that someone was coming since at 2006. The refinement of Chinese cars is the issue. With more than 80 local automakers producing 524 different models in China, R&D money is spread too thinly to produce meaningful results.

    Tesla:In an effort to blunt criticism about slow refueling times for battery-powered cars, Tesla TSLA -1.54% starts to roll out of a network of battery-swap stations. CEO Elon Musk must hope he can outdo Shai Agassi’s Better Place, which tried to build a whole company around battery-swaps before going bankrupt in 2013.

    Headquarter shifts: With Toyota leaving for Texas and Mercedes headed toward North Carolina or Georgia from New Jersey, look for Subaru to chart its own path when it builds its new headquarters. One option: Moving closer to its customers by relocating in Vermont.

    CEOs: Newbies Mary Barra at GM and Mark Fields at Ford start playing close attention to the moves made by FCA’s Sergio Marchionne. Despite running his growing empire on two continents, Marchionne tacked on a U.S market share gain of 1.2 points, unhindered by one of the weakest product lineups in the business and troubles with his much heralded eight-speed transmission.

    Awards: Despite early wins for VW’s Golf GTI, the Detroit-centric jurors of the North American Car and Truck award 2015 prizes to Ford’s Mustang as well as Ford’s F-150 pickup truck.

    Truck wars: Awards aside, Ford’s aluminum pickup is hard to build and slow to sell, leaving an opening for Ram’s fast-rising 1500 while Nissan tries to forget the failure of its first full-size truck when it launches the second-generation Titan with the biggest of big rig styling. The industry’s biggest secret is revealed by veteran executive John Krafcik in Automotive News: In the over $50,000 category, pickups and SUVs distributed through non-premium dealers outsell German luxury brands.

    Brands with the most to make up for in 2015:Volkswagen, whose stale product line depressed sales by 11%, thereby delaying Ferdinand Piech’s plans for global supremacy, and Volvo, down 17%, which has yet to make any progress under its Chinese owner.

    Brands with the most incentive to coast in 2015:Jeep, which must be exhausted after lifting sales an astonishing 44% on the back of the new Cherokee, and Subaru, now the 10th most popular brand in America after improving its sales by 21% in its usual fashion: quietly.

    Alternative fuels: For the first time since diesel-powered cars from Europe started arriving here in the 1950s, old first-person accounts about the joys of driving a diesel fall off to near zero. They are replaced by new first-person accounts about the joys of driving cars with ridiculously high horsepower like the 580-hp Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 and Dodge’s Challenger SRT Hellfire with 707 hp. Elsewhere: fuel-cell cars with their longer cruising range move center-stage, stealing the limelight from battery-powered cars.

    Technology:Cadillac will introduce high-resolution video streaming in the rearview mirror, which improves the field of vision by about four times greater than a traditional mirror by removing obstructions like pillars and passengers. Just the thing for aging Cadillac drivers with stiff necks. Coming next: a “beep, beep, beep” signal like that used by garbage trucks whenever the car is driven in reverse.

    Autonomous cars: Researchers are working on devices that will automatically park your car in a parking lot without you being in, or near, the car. It will also slip a note under the wipers of the car next to it with your phone number and insurance carrier in case of any scratches.

    Dealers: Car dealers work toward reducing the paperwork involved in buying a car and the hours it takes to fill it out. That will give them more time to devote to upselling add-ons such as extended warranties, paint and fabric protection, and rust-proofing.

    Classic cars:Prices plummet as an enormous supply of post-war classics, hidden away on an off-shore island, becomes available for the first time in 50 years. Collectors are especially eager to find Packards, Studebakers, Hudsons, Nashes, Kaisers, and Henry J’s. More’s the surprise because all of the cars are in running condition and are used as daily drivers.