为什么巨型集装箱运输突然统治了海运业？

    大船效率的提高对于个体承运人和全球大环境来说都有益处。其单个集装箱运输所耗燃油仅为老船只的50%，保险和人工成本也降低了一半多。和较小的船只相比，一艘巨型船舶同样需要20多个船员，但运力却是小船的三倍。

    巨型船舶对整个行业的影响则没有那么乐观。德鲁里供应链研究高级经理赛门•希尼说：“供求方面，行业遭遇了我们所说的结构性产能过剩的冲击”。大的运输公司通过“减速航行”的方式来削弱过度供给造成的影响，即刻意地让船以正常航速的一半来航行，既控制运力，也进一步节省了燃油。

    由于难以获得规模效益或在速度上做文章，小型运输公司的处境迅速恶化。全球排名前十之外的运输公司仅运营着几十艘巨型船，有些甚至连一艘都没有。其中的一些公司被迫投入他人的怀抱，比如4月份赫伯罗特就并购了南美轮船。此外，货运共享协议也是行业整合的另一种形式。到2015年初，仅四大海运联盟就可以完全控制亚欧集装箱业务。

    由于基础设施的限制，巨型船舶中尺寸最大的都只能在亚欧航线上运营。像中海集运“环球号”这样尺寸的船已经无法通过巴拿马运河，而以目前的设施水平，美国东海岸和西海岸的港口也都无力接纳这样的船只。巴拿马运河扩容工程目前正在进行，投资集团香港尼加拉瓜运河开发投资有限公司也准备在尼加拉瓜开发建造一条运河。巨型船舶所产生的涟漪效应已波及世界各地，因为它迫使老船和小船退出亚欧航线的运营，并造成了运力的膨胀和运价的普降。

    行业观察者说，中海集运“环球号”世界第一的称号可能不会长久。《中国海运》杂志的萨姆•钱伯斯预计，2015年初可能会出现2万标箱的船只订单，以目前亚欧航线基础设施情况来看，未来制造2.4万标箱的船只也是可行的。而这意味着，产能过剩的局面将会长时间持续，同时也会为全球的小型运输公司带来更大的压力。（财富中文网）

    译者：Donna

    审稿：李翔

    The efficiencies of the larger ships are a boon for individual shippers, and for the global environment. They consume as little as 50% of the fuel per container moved as older ships, while also more than halving insurance and staffing costs. A megaship requires the same 20-odd crew as a smaller ship but can carry three times the cargo.

    The effect on the industry as a whole is less sanguine. “In terms of supply and demand, the industry is blighted by what we describe as structural overcapacity,” says Simon Heaney, Drewry’s senior manager of supply chain research. Large carriers have mitigated that oversupply to a degree through a practice known as “slow-steaming”—intentionally operating ships at as little as half their normal speed, which both reins in capacity and offers further fuel savings.

    With less access to efficiencies of scale or speed, smaller carriers are losing ground fast. Carriers outside of the global top 10 operate only dozens or, in some cases, zero megaships. Some have been forced into mergers, such as the acquisition of CSAV by Hapag-Lloyd in April. Further consolidation has taken the form of cargo-sharing agreements. By early 2015, the Asia-Europe container trade will be entirely controlled by just four major alliances.

    Infrastructure limitations have kept the largest of the megaships confined to those Asia-Europe routes. Ships the size of the CSCL Globe are too large to fit through the Panama Canal, and neither East nor West Coast U.S. ports are equipped to handle them anyway. The expansion of the Panama Canal to accommodate megaships is underway, and the Hong Kong-based investment group HKND is currently exploring the construction of a large canal across Nicaragua. But the megaships are having ripple effects around the world by pushing older, smaller ships out of service on Asia-Europe routes, inflating capacity and pushing down prices everywhere.

    Industry watchers say the CSCL Globe is unlikely to retain its world’s-biggest title for long. Sam Chambers of SinoShip expects to see a 20,000 TEU ship ordered by early 2015, and ships of up to 24,000 TEU would be viable with current Asia-Europe infrastructure. That would mean continued chronic overcapacity, and even more pressure on smaller shippers worldwide.