马克•安德森：2015年可能发生的科技和商业大事件

    经济展望：

    • 油价仍将维持低位。不断增加的新能源和水力压裂法生产的石油意味着油价将会维持在每桶50-60美元，比今年年初下降一半多。曾被能源支出占用的大量金钱现在可用来修建桥梁、学校和其他基础设施。这将是送给全世界的一份厚礼。

    • 中国将面临考验。中国经济主要是靠政治而非资本驱动。政府的经济报告充斥着粗制滥造的数据，环境污染严重，人们已经不再信任食品质量。总而言之，中国人并不幸福。中国的领导人受过良好教育，非常明智。他们正在努力维持宏观经济的稳定，因此说中国会陷入困境还为时尚早。不过一旦这一天来临，那就将是一场硬着陆。

    • 日本经济有望迎来复苏。尽管关于日本深陷困境的说法不绝于耳——自然灾害频发，劳动力老化等等——但它实际上状况不错。它依靠高品质出口商品的商业模式，丰田汽车公司这类跨国企业在全球的强势表现，以及相对其他国家较少的进口意味着，日本经济将会走强。

    • 三星公司将深陷困境。三星公司的商业模式是销售现有发明（如iPhone）的改良产品，而不是基于自主创新产品。随着智能手机制造商小米公司这类中国竞争对手的强势崛起，三星的好日子可能到头了。

    • 印度的情况看起来不错。美国与印度领导人近期的频频互访意味着两国正在加强军事关系。美国将对印度的核武器项目加大支持，而后者实际已生产出核武器。这将成为印度和美国在南亚地区结成更紧密同盟关系的基础，而这将使中国感到紧张。

    • 欧盟将经历文化冲突。目前绝大多数决策都是德国作出的，问题是，其他北欧国家，尤其是瑞典、芬兰、挪威和丹麦是否会支持德国？

    • 澳大利亚状况欠佳。中国持有澳大利亚企业的大量股权。当澳大利亚手头有钱时，它没有将其投资到自己的产业和大学中。现在，随着自然资源价格不断下跌，澳大利亚已成为一个货币不断走软、依靠自然资源为主的经济体。它最大的客户是中国，而中国的兴趣在于成为澳大利亚众多企业的主人。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远

    审校：任文科

    Economic predictions:

    • Oil prices will stay low. An increased supply of alternative energy and additional oil supplies from fracking mean oil prices will stay at $50-$60 a barrel, down by more than half from earlier this year. Trillions of dollars that were tied up in energy spending are now available for bridges, schools, and infrastructure. It’s a gift to the world.

    • China has a lot to worry about. China’s economy is driven by politics rather than money. Between fudged numbers in government economic reports, pollution, and the population’s distrust of food quality, China’s population is unhappy. China’s leadership is well-educated and intelligent so they’re managing to hold everything together, so it will take years for China to crumble. When it does, the fall will be hard.

    • Japan is in a sweet spot. For all the talk about how Japan is in trouble—natural disasters, aging workforce—it is, in fact, doing well. Its business model of high quality exports, a strong global presence with companies like Toyota, and relatively few imports compared to other countries mean Japan’s economy is going strong.

    • Samsung is in trouble. Samsung’s business model is based on selling modified versions of existing inventions like the iPhone rather than inventing. With the rise of Chinese competitors like smartphone maker Xiaomi gaining market share, Samsung is in a tight spot.

    • India looks pretty good. The recent visits between US and India mean tighter military relations. US is about to give it’s blessing on India’s nuclear weapons program, which has already produced nuclear weapons. This will be the basis for a tighter alliance in South Asia between India and the US that will make China nervous.

    • The European Union is going through a cultural clash. Germany makes most of the decisions, and the question is how will the rest of northern Europe especially Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark stand for it?

    • Australia’s not doing great. China owns a large chunk of Australia’s businesses. When Australia had the money to spare, it didn’t invest in it’s own industries and universities. Now, Australia is a natural resource based economy with a sliding dollar at a time when natural resource prices are plunging. Its biggest customer is China, and China is interested in owning Australian businesses.