中国牛市的推手：“低学历羊群”效应

    周三（4月1日），中国股市又涨了，沪深指数涨幅均在1.7%左右（沪市1.66%，深市1.78%）。2015年以来，A股稳步上扬，沪市一季度上涨了16%，近9个月以来的涨幅接近90%。与此同时，中国经济正在放缓，中国金融业正面临巨大压力，甚至可能出现危机，但股市表现与此背道而驰。

    我们曾谈到过中国股市，解释为什么一旦出现牛市行情，就容易激发中国老百姓的赌性，基本上没人会关心市盈率和基本面。

    彭博首席亚洲经济学家欧乐鹰用一张图表直观展示了中国股民这种“羊群效应”。这幅图显示，中国牛市的动力正越来越多地来自受教育程度较低的股民，他们普遍资金不多，唯恐错失良机，争相涌入股市。欧乐鹰引用的数据来自2014年底对4000个中国家庭的财务状况调查。他发现，A股市场的新股民大多数没有高中文凭（6%是文盲），资产也比老股民少得多。

    Chinese stocks followed a familiar script on Wednesday: they rose 1.7%. They’ve been riding high for most of the year—in the first quarter, Shanghai stocks climbed by 16%. They’re now up nearly 90% in the last nine months–all against the background of a slowing economy with abundant signals of stress–if not yet distress–from the financial sector.

    We’ve written about China’s stock markets before, explaining how they tend to draw out the gambling instincts of regular Chinese once a bull market is underway. Price-to-equity ratios and fundamentals are rarely brought up.

    Tom Orlik, chief Asia economist at Bloomberg, assembled a great chart that explains the herd mentality. He shows how China’s bull market is being increasingly driven by less educated folks with smaller assets piling into stocks before they miss their chance. Orlik pulls the data from the China Household Finance Survey which surveyed 4,000 households in late 2014 and found a majority of the new investors in China’s market don’t have a high school education (6% are illiterate) and have far fewer assets than those who already own stocks.

    这并不是断定刚闯进股市的大爷大妈们炒股一定比老股民差。但股民平均学历下降确实表明，股疯正席卷中国大地。一般来说，如果就连出租车司机都开始传授起炒股秘诀，市场往往就离顶部不远了。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    This isn’t to say regular mom and pop investors can’t outperform more seasoned traders. But the lower education levels do offer evidence of stock mania sweeping through China. When taxi drivers are trading stock tips, markets tend to move into unsustainable territory.