廉价电池和智能软件将掀起下一波科技革命

    超越锂离子电池

    众所周知，电池领域的创新难度很大，而且创新所需要的时间要远远超过人们的预期。不过电池制造商们仍会围绕新的化学物质锲而不舍地研发。GELI公司联合创始人兼CEO赖安•沃特纳表示：“目前我们仍然处在电池商品化的早期阶段。在未来几年里，我们将见证电池技术的不断发展，最终会诞生所谓的超循环电池，而它也将打开越来越多的市场。”

    创业公司使用新型化学物质研发的电池，也正在缓慢地进入市场。电池创业公司Ambri的CEO菲尔•吉迪斯也认为，电网蓄电池市场仍然“处于早期阶段”。Ambri公司也正在研发一种新型的低成本电网蓄电池，它将熔盐夹在两层液态金属之中，作为电池的主要材料。

    该公司的首批原型产品预计将于今年夏秋两季正式问世，商用电池则要等到2016年年底才能出货。吉迪斯表示：“我们不担心有人行动得比我们早，因为比起‘做得早’，更重要的是‘做得对’。”3年前刚刚加盟Ambri公司时，吉迪斯觉得电网蓄电池更多是一种概念上的产品，但现在这个领域的很多项目已经成为现实。

    因此，锂离子电池或许有助于为下一代的电池产品铺平道路。不过正如几年前很多太阳能公司想利用新材料制做太阳能电池板，最终却以失败告终一样，新型电池大概也不会一帆风顺，难免会遭遇很多风风雨雨。

    在这个问题上，大多数电池集成商和软件商其实是“电池不可知论者”，不管是哪种化学物质，只要能做出低价、高效、安全的电池，他们都统统欢迎。不过Stem公司的CEO卡灵顿指出，对于一般需要金融方案的大型电网项目来说，锂离子电池要比新型化学物质电池更容易通过银行那一关。特斯拉CEO穆斯克在公司最近的财报电话会议上表示，如果新型电池和电池材料方面有了超越锂离子电池的任何突破，特斯拉公司都将迅速跟进。

    对于GELI这样的公司来说，他们将来的梦想，是要推动所谓“能源互联网”的出现。沃特纳表示：

    “我认为未来几年，最初由互联网构建的业务模式会出现在能源领域，使能源软件、能源计算机、微电网、微电网网络、能源设施、能源应用以及网络化的能源服务整合起来，构成一张‘能源互联网’。”

    等到电池像电脑的芯片、手机的无线电装置、互联网的网络一样低价、可靠和普及时，这一切都可能变成现实。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    审校：任文

    Beyond lithium ion

    Battery innovation is notoriously tough, and always seems to take far longer than expected. But battery makers will continue to innovate around new chemistries. GELI CEO and co-founder Ryan Wartena says “we are still in the early days of battery commodification. We will see continued advances in technology over the coming years that lead to hyper-cycle batteries that will open more and more markets.”

    New battery chemistries from startups have been slowly making their way to market. The CEO of battery startup Ambri, Phil Giudice, likewise says the market for grid storage is still “at an early stage.” Ambri is making a low cost grid battery using molten salt sandwiched between two layers of liquid metal.

    The company expects to ship their first battery prototypes this summer and fall, and commercial batteries by the end of 2016. He says “We’re not so worried about the first movers. It’s more important to get it right.” When Giudice joined Ambri three years ago, he says the grid storage market was far more conceptual, but now there are many more projects being done in reality.

    In that way, lithium-ion batteries could help pave the way for the next generation of batteries that some day will make it to market. Though, like what occurred with the solar manufacturing startups that tried to make solar panels from new materials years ago and struggled, there could be a lot of market ups and downs along the way.

    Most of the battery integrator and software makers are actually “battery agnostic,” and welcome any new battery chemistry that is low-cost, effective, and safe enough. However, for large grid projects that need project financing, lithium-ion batteries are more easily “bankable” right now than a new chemistry, explained Stem’s Carrington. Tesla’s Musk noted in the company’s latest earnings call that if there’s any breakthroughs in battery chemistry and new batteries beyond lithium-ion batteries, Tesla would be quick to implement these, too.

    Down the road, the dream for companies like GELI are to help the “Internet of Energy” emerge. Wartena says:

    “Over the coming years I expect to see similar business models that happened in the original build of the Internet, for energy software, energy computers, microgrids, networks of microgrids, energy operations, energy applications, networked energy services, and the list goes on.”

    When batteries become as low cost, reliable and widely available as chips for computers, radios for cell phones, and networks for the Internet, some day all that could become true.