美国制造成本已几乎追平中国

    即使你不是诺贝尔经济学奖得主，也知道正在进行的水力压裂革命对美国非常有利。而另一件人们还不太了解的事情是，廉价的石油和天然气已经让美国制造业成本变得竞争力十足。据波士顿咨询公司估计，现在在美国制造商品的平均成本只比在中国高5%，比在欧洲各大经济体还要低10-20%。更令人震惊的是：该公司预计，到2018年，美国制造的成本将比中国便宜2-3%。

    You don’t need to a Nobel Prize in economics to know that the fracking revolution has been good for the U.S. What’s not so well known is just how competitive cheap oil and gas has made American manufacturing. BCG, the Boston consultancy, estimates the average cost to manufacture goods in the U.S. is now only 5% higher than in China and is actually 10% to 20% lower than in major European economies. Even more striking: BCG projects that by 2018 it will be 2% to 3% cheaper to make stuff here than in China.

    中美制造业的成本差距正在不断缩小，部分原因在于中国的工资水平正在上涨，而美国公司一直在以比许多国际竞争对手更快的速度提高生产效率。不过，其中最大的一个因素可能是，水力压裂技术极大地压低了美国钢铁、铝、造纸和石油化工等能源密集型产业所需的石油和天然气的价格。据波士顿咨询公司核算，美国的工业用电价格现在要比其他出口大国低30-50%。

    该公司的大卫•吉表示：“考虑到美国制造商从中国进口货物时要面临航运延误、港口罢工的威胁，以及中国政府经常要求在华营商的外国公司必须在当地投资，与本土企业建立合资企业等因素，中美之间5%的成本差异其实并没有那么显著。”

    更低的能源价格还开启了新的机会。比如，使用天然气充当汽车和卡车的燃料，将降低美国对石油进口的依赖，并有助于减少温室气体排放。天然气还能转化为氢气，作为丰田Mirai等新型汽车的燃料。（这家日本汽车巨头将于今年夏天开始在加州接受这款汽车的订单。）

    在过去几年，廉价的能源已经吸引了各行各业的公司来美投资，投资总额高达1380亿美元。比如，今年春天，石油化工巨头沙索公司就在路易斯安那州斥资81亿美元建起了乙烷裂解炉。而Cheniere等能源公司面向海外出口市场，投资数十亿美元在墨西哥湾建立了液化天然气终端，在海外，天然气价格可能比美国本土贵上3到4倍。

    至于说美国的优势将能保持多久？哈佛商学院教授迈克尔•波特携手波士顿咨询公司，在6月发表了一篇题为《美国非常规能源机遇》的报告。这份报告显示，美国的水力压裂技术领先其他国家约15年。一项最具说服力的，可支持这个论点的数据是：美国拥有101,117口水力压裂油井；加拿大紧随其后，拥有16,990口；而相比之下，中国只有258口水力压裂油井。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    审校：任文科

    Part of the reason for the narrowing gap is that wages have been rising in China. And American companies have been boosting their productivity faster than many of their international competitors. But perhaps the single largest factor is that fracking has helped dramatically drive down the price of oil and gas that’s being used in energy intensive industries such as steel, aluminum, paper and petrochemicals. BCG calculates that U.S. industrial electricity prices are now 30% to 50% lower than those of other major exporters.

    “A 5% price discrepancy in manufacturing between China and the US doesn’t amount to much,” says BCG’s David Gee, “when you consider that US manufacturers face the risks of delay when shipping from China, the threat of port strikes, and the local investments and partnerships that Beijing often requires of foreign companies doing business there.”

    Lower energy prices can also open up new opportunities such as a using natural gas to power fleet vehicles and trucks, which would reduce American dependence on foreign oil and cut greenhouse gases. Natural gas can also be converted into hydrogen to power fuel cells like the ones in Toyota’s Mirai passenger car. (The Japanese car giant will start taking orders for the Mirai in California this summer.)

    Over the last few years, cheap energy has encouraged players in various industries to earmark $138 billion for new U.S.-based investments. This spring, for example, the petrochemical giant Sasol started construction on an $8.1 billion ethane cracker at Lake Charles, La. And energy companies like Cheniere are building multi-billion LNG terminals on the Gulf of Mexico to export overseas, where natural gas can be three to four times more expensive than it is in the U.S.

    How long will America’s advantage last? Harvard Business School’s Michael Porter, who along with BCG issued a new report in June called “America’s Unconventional Energy Opportunity,” says that America has about a 15-year lead on other nations when it comes to fracking. The most telling number to make that point? The U.S. has 101,117 fracked wells, followed by Canada’s 16,990. By contrast China has 258.