谁将赢得未来汽车技术战？

    一场围绕着互联化、电气化、自动驾驶化（甚至包括共享化）汽车的竞赛，正将各大汽车厂商推向生死存亡的十字路口。

    纽约Alix Partners公司上周二发布的一份报告显示，未来7年，全球汽车销量增长率将由2007年至2014年间的3.1%下降至2.6%。与此同时，为了研发自动驾驶、联网、电气化和汽车分享系统，各大厂商均面临着日益增加的成本压力。

    该报告还认为，如果某些厂商没能在这四个技术领域上做大做强，那么未来十年，它们必须与其他厂商进行战略结盟，或者与更大的公司合并，否则就有可能被抛在后面。

    Alix Partners公司的副总裁斯特凡诺•阿弗萨在一份声明指出，各大厂商，特别是平价汽车品牌，必须要想方设法满足研发“未来汽车”所需的研发资金和额外资本支出。

    结果就是，汽车业必然将面临一次“大合并”。Alix Partners公司指出，目前很多汽车厂商通过合资和股权等方式建立了较强的联系。汽车行业已建立了16家合资企业，17个装配同盟，15个技术同盟，还有9家厂商手中握有其他汽车厂商的股权。

    汽车业过去也经历过合并的浪潮，以量取胜的平价品牌曾经并购了不少高端品牌。Alix Partners公司认为，这一次将出现更多由技术和品牌主导的并购，特别是新兴的中国和印度车企可能将吃掉一些西方厂商。

    互联性：强劲的催化剂

    虽然这四个领域之间也是互相关联的，但互联性几乎是“未来汽车”所有方面的催化剂。根据互联汽车论坛的数据，2015年全球销售的20%以上的汽车都将包含内置的互联性解决方案，超过半数以上的汽车都能通过内置、外接或智能手机集成功能实现互联。

    Alix Partners预测称，到2025年，每辆新车都将可以通过多种方式互联。这无疑意味着将有大量资金投入到车联网领域。该公司的报告认为，随着信息娱乐系统、导航、安全性等移动互联方案成为潮流，到2018年，联网汽车的市值将达到400亿美元，其中超过半数的市值将流向应用和服务方面。

    对于汽车厂商来说，光是开发新车型或研发新的动力系统已经远远不够了。未来汽车行业的利润不仅来自硬件，而且将更多地来自软件以及实时数据收集与应用领域。如果没有满足这种需求，汽车厂商就有可能被擅长软件和互联网的竞争对手超越。

    谷歌与苹果加入战团

    苹果和谷歌是联网汽车市场上的两个主导者。这两家公司均开发了能让智能手机控制中控台屏幕的车载互联系统。只要用户将智能手机插入汽车的USB接口，手机里的音乐、地图、导航和精选应用就能被集成到中控台。

    通用、现代、三菱等汽车厂商都已宣布计划称，它们的新车型将提供苹果CarPlay或谷歌Android Auto车载互联系统——很多车型甚至将同时提供这两个系统。

    虽然各方围绕着Android Auto和CarPlay不断发出声明，但其实并没有哪家汽车厂商已经准备好（或愿意）放弃自家的车载通讯和娱乐系统。比如丰田就没有加入苹果和谷歌的互联平台，而是正在研究是否采用SmartDeviceLink技术。该技术是福特AppLink的一个开源版本，可以使车主通过中控台按钮、显示屏或语音识别技术来控制智能手机应用。目前SDL技术主要由福特的子公司Livio进行维护。

    自从1996年安吉星服务诞生以来，通用汽车就开始在其车型中提供某些版本的无线互联技术。现在，通用正在向别克、雪佛兰、凯迪拉克和GMC的若干车型中加入Wi-Fi功能。它使用的是AT&T提供的一种新型4G无线模块，使用户可以享受到高速无线上网服务，其体验不逊于最新款的三星Galaxy设备或4G版iPad。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    审校：任文科

    The race towards connected, electrified, self-driving (and even shared) cars is pushing automakers towards an existential crossroads.

    Global automotive sales will increase at an annual rate of 2.6% for the next seven years, down from a rate of 3.1% between 2007 and 2014, according to a study released Tuesday by New York-based Alix Partners. At the same time, automakers are under pressure to put an increasing amount of capital towards autonomous driving systems, connected features, electrification, and car-sharing options.

    Automakers that fail to master these four tech-centric areas over the next decade will be forced to make strategic partnerships, merge with larger companies, or risk being left behind, the report says.

    Most major automakers, especially mass market players will have to find ways of funding the additional capital expenditure and research and development investments required to master the car of the future, said Stefano Aversa, vice chairman of Alix Partners, in a statement.

    The upshot? The automotive industry is poised to undergo a major consolidation. Automakers are already linked by a series of joint ventures and equity stakes. In the industry today, there are 16 joint ventures, 17 assembly alliances, 15 technical alliances and nine deals where an automaker holds equity in another, Alix Partners says.

    The industry has gone through waves of mergers in the past, including a period when when volume players premium brands. Alix Partners predicts the industry could see more technology and brand-driven mergers and acquisitions with emerging Chinese and Indian players snapping up Western-based automakers.

    Connectivity: The great enabler

    While each of these four areas is linked, connectivity is the great enabler for practically all aspects of the car of the future. More than 20% of vehicles sold worldwide in 2015 will include embedded connectivity solutions and more than half will be connected either by embedded, tethered or smartphone integration, according to data from Connected Car Forum.

    By 2025, every new car will be connected in multiple ways, Alix Partners predicts. Not surprisingly, that means a lot of money is pouring into the connected car space. The drive to equip new cars with different mobile connectivity solutions—for infotainment, navigation, security, and safety features—will cause the connected vehicle market to double to $40 billion by 2018, the report predicts. More than half of that market will be dedicated to apps and services.

    It will no longer be enough for automakers to roll out new models or develop better powertrains and other components. Future profits will be linked not only to hardware, but increasingly to the car’s software and to real-time data collection and application, Alix Partners says. Automakers that fail to meet this demand risk losing out to software and Internet players.

    Google and Apple jump in

    Apple and Google are the two dominant players in the connected car market. The two companies have developed connectivity systems that allow the smartphone to take over a car’s center screen. Once users plug their smartphone into the car’s USB port, the phone’s music, maps and navigation, and selected apps are integrated onto the central screen.

    Several automakers, including GM , Hyundai, and Mitsubishi have announced plans to offer CarPlay or Android Auto—and in many cases both.

    Despite the seemingly endless cycle of Android Auto and CarPlay announcements, not all automakers are ready—or willing—to give up their own in-car communications and entertainment systems. For example, Toyota has not committed to either Apple or Google’s connectivity platforms. Instead, Toyota engineers are studying whether to adopt SmartDeviceLink technology, an open source version of Ford AppLink, which gives drivers command and control of smartphone apps through dashboard buttons, display screens and voice recognition tech. SDL is maintained by Livio, a subsidiary of Ford.

    GM has offered some version of wireless connectivity in its vehicles since 1996, when OnStar was born. Now thecompany is putting Wi-Fi into dozens of new Buick, Chevrolet, Cadillac, and GMC models, thanks to a new AT&T 4G radio module that gives users a high-speed link comparable to what you might experience on the latest Samsung Galaxy or 4G iPad.