业绩高涨、股价下跌：苹果怎么了？

从收入、盈利、资产、现金流、利润空间和增长这些基本数据来看，苹果公司在过去一年的表现十分出色。

然而，这家全球市值最高的公司2015年末的股价比年初下跌了4%，较52周以来的最高点下跌了近22%。

为什么股价与业绩表现不一致？

在我的专栏留言区，一位名叫梅凯尔的读者说出了许多郁闷的苹果股东的心声。他把这种现象归结为六大原因：

过多的期权活动。机构对银行不再把乐透彩票（期权）卖给每周的投机者感到满意。2015年，约有90%的苹果期权失效过期。这种模式如此可靠，以至于成为预测股价走向的法宝。谢天谢地，期权活动已经开始减弱，这给苹果的股东带来了希望。至少在拉斯维加斯，每个人都可能输掉自己的衣服，而押注苹果的人则可能输得只剩裤头。

新闻业糟糕的商业模式。与苹果相关的诱人新闻标题比比皆是，而且大部分都是负面的。不要低估广告费的作用，它是许多苹果负面消息的来源。

CNBC。散户常常听到恐惧、不确定和怀疑的消息。我认为，CNBC财经频道是要负责任的：他们有超过40位苹果分析师。在那些还没被炒鱿鱼的分析师中，大多数人认为苹果股价会涨到远高于目前股价的水平，但CNBC的观众永远不会知道这种观点，因为在CNBC看来，所谓的“平衡”报道就是给看涨苹果和看跌苹果的言论同样的报道时间。这可不是真正的平衡报道。如果CNBC报道人类登月，他们也绝对会本着“平衡报道”的精神，找一位声称这是骗局的人。

无知。普通的散户不会从健身课上学到市盈率的概念。他们非常信赖CNBC那些名嘴的分析，而许多分析师主要是依靠“渠道监控”的方式来预测苹果iPhone的销量——尽管苹果CEO蒂姆•库克已经警告称，供应商的数据往往不靠谱。

华尔街目光短浅。目前，华尔街相信微软的前景比苹果好三倍（根据相关的市盈率）。在这个星球上，谁能捍卫这种结论？微软在移动领域已经失败，正在免费增速Windows操作系统，而新版Office也早就失去了意义。被微软寄予厚望的云业务领域正在演变为一场恶性竞争，我也讨厌拿他们的云产品与亚马逊云服务相比，因为亚马逊没必要靠这项业务赚钱。

认知错误。苹果的iPhone业务取得了惊人的成功。不过华尔街却不看好它未来的表现。苹果iPhone目前在全球的市场占有率约为14%。正如科技专栏作家丹尼尔•埃兰•迪尔格所说，谷歌安卓只是在为苹果培养新用户。就算苹果过度依赖iPhone，但这跟销售咖啡的星巴克，销售飞机的波音，销售汽车的通用汽车等等（这份名单很长）有什么区别。现在，所有人都买了最新款的智能手机吗？所有人都买了最新款的汽车吗？智能手机的更新周期足以让汽车业羡慕，在汽车业，超过20个品牌在争夺一位顾客。与之相反，苹果现在处于前所未有的强势地位，而他们的竞争对手前所未有地弱。但是，一些汽车制造商的市盈率却高于苹果。可见幻想故事在股市里更有市场。

梅凯尔总结道：“以上任何一条原因都证明，股市极端低效。所有这些原因综合起来，导致苹果股价低到愚蠢的水平。”（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

审校：任文科

Judging by the fundamentals—things like revenue, earnings, assets, cash flow, profit margins, and growth—Apple had a very good year.

However shares in the world’s most valuable company finished 2015 down 4% from the beginning of the year and off nearly 22% from their 52-week high.

Why the disconnect?

In my comment stream yesterday, a longtime reader who calls himself Merckel spoke for many frustrated shareholders when he boiled it down to six reasons:

Heavy option activity. Institutions are content with making bank off of selling lotto tickets (options) to weekly gamblers. Approximately 90% of all Appleoptions expired worthless in 2015. The pattern is so reliable that it acts as a talisman for stock direction. Thankfully, the option activity is beginning to moderate, which is promising for Apple shareholders. At least in Las Vegas, one knows the odds of losing one’s shirt; Apple gamblers are reduced to wearing only their shorts.

Journalism’s broken business model. Clickbait headlines about Apple dominate and are mostly negative. Do not underestimate the power of advertising dollars as the root of much of Apple’s negative press.

CNBC. Retail investors are served a regular diet of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (see above). I give business news network CNBC its own slot for good reason: There are more than 40 analysts covering Apple. Most of those still working (heh) are bullish and have price targets well above today’s stock price, though a viewer of CNBC would never know it because the network’s version of “balance” is to give equal time to Apple bulls and Apple bears. That’s not balanced reporting. If CNBC covered man’s landing on the moon, they would no doubt find someone who claimed a hoax for “equal time.”

Ignorance. The average retail investor doesn’t know a P/E ratio from a gym class. Accordingly, they listen to CNBC talking heads, many of whom rely on “channel checks” to divine iPhone sales despite Apple CEO Tim Cook’s warning that suppliers are a bad proxy for actual results.

Wall Street myopia. Currently, Wall Street believes Microsofthas three times better prospects than Apple (based on relative P/E ratios). On what planet can anyone defend this conclusion? Microsoft has failed in mobile, is giving away Windows and new versions of Office have long ceased to be meaningful. The cloud business is a race to the bottom, and I’d hate to compete with Amazon’s cloud service since Amazondoesn’t have to make any profits.

Perception. Apple’s iPhone business is winning spectacularly. But for the Street, it’s a Wall of Worry. Apple’s worldwide market share for the iPhone is approximately 14%. As Daniel Eran Dilger pointed out, Google’s GOOG -1.57% Android is a feeding tube for new Apple customers. If Apple is too concentrated in iPhones, so is Starbucks SBUX -1.30% selling coffee, Boeing BA -1.24% selling planes, General Motors GM -0.93% selling cars, etc. (the list is very long). Really now, has everyone purchased their last smartphone? Has everyone purchased their last car? The replacement cycle for smartphones would be the envy of the car business, an industry populated by over 20 brands competing for the same customer. By contrast, Apple has never been in a stronger position and its competitors have never been weaker. Yet, some auto manufacturers have a higher P/E ratio than Apple. More Alice in Wonderland in the stock market.

“Any one of the above suggests the stock market is inefficient as hell,” Merckel concludes. “That all of the above apply produces a truly asinine Apple stock price.”