中国经济暗藏增长动力

在投资者眼中，中国经济会如何影响全球经济还很难预测。但作为全球第二大经济体，中国怎样发挥自身“软实力”却是个值得认真讨论的话题，尤其是近来中国与好莱坞关系越发紧密。

最近，大连万达集团签署协议，将收购《侏罗纪世界》、《哥斯拉》等大片的制作公司传奇影业。在此之前，中资企业在好莱坞已动作连连。2015年3月，另一好莱坞制片公司狮门影业与湖南广电传媒达成了3.75亿美元的融资协议。国有企业中影集团投资了环球影业的《速度与激情7》以及索尼影业的《像素大战》。华谊兄弟传媒宣布，将参与投资美国STX娱乐公司18个电影项目，一同投资的还有私募股权基金弘毅投资。

在豪掷35亿美元收购传奇影业股权以前，大连万达去年为杰克•吉伦哈尔主演的电影《铁拳》提供了部分融资。（该司2012年以26亿美元收购了美国AMC影院公司，此举被视为其在美国市场增强软实力的尝试。）

中国的经济增长可能正在放缓，但人们对电影的喜爱有增无减。中国目前是全球第二大电影市场，2015年票房占全球总票房的16%，多厅影院正以每周10家的速度增长，电影行业增速是GDP的10倍。这对好莱坞来说是好消息，说明中国市场的盈利前景广阔。

2014年，派拉蒙影业出品的《变形金刚：绝迹重生》成为中国史上票房第三高的影片。该片由中国女星李冰冰参演，部分场景在香港拍摄，上映后仅在中国就狂收3.2亿美元。去年，《侏罗纪世界》和《复仇者联盟：奥创纪元》在中国合计斩获6.19亿美元票房。而去年在中国最能“吸金”的好莱坞影片还属《速度与激情7》，该片在中国的票房高达3.91亿美元，比在美国的票房还高。最近登陆中国的《星球大战：原力觉醒》创下了中国电影史上周六首映日的最高票房纪录，估计上周末斩获了3300万美元票房。对日渐成为“铁哥们”的中国和好莱坞来说，这或许是个新年吉兆。

在中国收获成功的不只是好莱坞电影，“中国制造”的本土电影也从国内观众人数增长中受益。去年，动画角色与真人结合的《捉妖记》成为最卖座的国产影片，其国内票房达到3.81亿美元，也成为中国历来票房排名第五位的电影。

但在中国观众为好莱坞影片稳定贡献票房的同时，能否长期持续下去引发了不少质疑。中国本土电影会在多大程度上影响好莱坞电影热卖？眼下中国电影市场日渐火热主要还是让好莱坞赚到不少，但随着国产电影质量提升，中国观众对美国电影的兴趣会不会减淡？

以去年的大卖影片为例：《速度与激情7》是中国票房最高的影片，可是全年票房前十的影片中有7部都是本土电影。说起来中国的进口电影配额制也是原因之一，中国政府每年仅批准34部国外电影进入本国市场。即便是全球同步首映已成为常态的今天，一些海外影片也不得不推迟在华上映时间。《星球大战：原力觉醒》就推迟到今年才在中国正式亮相。

不过，好莱坞和中国电影产业发展壮大之间究竟是不是零和博弈还很难说。也可能会是双赢局面。

毕竟，从动作片到动画片，好莱坞的大成本大制作影片通常都能靠着横扫全球的吸引力，在美国之外的市场收获热情回应，在中国即便面对本土影片的竞争也能轻松取胜。而且，随着中国投资渐渐流入好莱坞，能在中美两国（及全球其他地区）都热卖的大片会相关各方都能获益。

但随着中国国产电影质量提高，另一个问题冒了出来：中国的电影行业会不会成为“东方好莱坞”，有朝一日杀入美国市场？或者说，中国电影业未来会不会更像印度宝莱坞？宝莱坞每年制作的电影数量是美国的两倍甚至不止，在国内也有很大市场，却很少在国外成功。

我认为，无论如何，结果都会是双赢的。很多人一直在哀叹美国电影日薄西山，因为愿意走进电影院的美国人越来越少，更多人选择在家看Netflix网站，实在令人心寒。可现在，优秀的电影得到了更多投资，还有十亿新观众等着看。要避免电影艺术被短短30秒的YouTube视频取代，中国可以帮上忙。（财富中文网）

作者布拉德•格罗斯曼成立了指导商业领袖把握文化趋势的顾问公司Zeitguide，出任该司首席执行官。

译者：Pessy

校对：夏林

How the growth of China is affecting the global economy continues to be a big wildcard on investors’ minds continues to be a big wildcard on investors’ minds but how the world’s second largest economy are spreading their “soft power” is an emerging conversation that’s worth taking a closer look as the country’s relationship with Hollywood continues to blossom.

Recently，Chinese conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group signed an acquisition deal with Legendary Entertainment, the Hollywood production company behind movies, such as Jurassic World and Godzilla.This follows others deals in Hollywood. Last March, Lions Gate got things going when it closed a $375-million film financing deal with Hunan TV. Government-owned China Film Group then invested in Universal’s Furious 7 and Sony’s Pixels.China’s Huayi Bros. Media Corp took a stake in 18 of STX’s movie projects while Chinese private-equity firm Hony Capital also invested heavily.

And before buying its stake in Legendary for $3.5 billion, the Dalian Wanda Corp partially financed last year’s Southpaw, starring Jake Gyllenhaal. (The conglomerate also bought AMC Cinema Chain for 2.6 billion in 2012 — a move that looked to be an attempt at strengthening its soft power stateside.)

China’s economy may be slowing, but their love of films certainty isn’t. The country is now the world’s second-largest film market, taking in 16% of global box office revenues in 2015. China is adding the equivalent of 10 new multiplexes every week. China’s theatrical movie business is growing 10 times faster than its GDP. That’s good news that means bigger dollar signs for Hollywood.

Paramount Pictures’ 2014 Transformers: Age of Extinction, which starred China’s Bingbing Li and was set partly in Hong Kong, became the third-highest grossing film in China by taking in $320 million in that nation alone. Last year’s Jurassic World and Avengers: Age of Ultron made a combined $619 million in China. Furious 7, the 2015 top earner in China, made $391 million in the country, which was more than it made at the box office in the United States. More recently, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, gobbled up an estimated $33 million this past weekend in the biggest Saturday open ever in China for any film. A good sign for the New Year as China and Hollywood become firm bed buddies.

It’s not just Hollywood films finding success in the country either. “Made-in-China” movies are reaping benefits from the country’s growing domestic audience. The animated film Monster Hunt became the highest grossing Chinese-made movie ever, raking in over $381 million in domestic box office, making it the fifth highest-grossing film in China of all time.

But as Chinese moviegoers becomes a reliable revenue stream for Hollywood, questions around its long-term stability get louder. How much will Chinese-made films impact the popularity of Hollywood films in China? For now, China’s growing love affair with movies still largely benefits Tinsel Town; but with the quality of Chinese films on the rise, could interest in U.S. films by Chinese audiences may wane?

Case in point: Furious 7 was the highest grossing film in China, but 7 of the top 10 box office draws in 2015 were actually Chinese-made movies. China’s film quota also doesn’t help either. The government allows only 34 foreign films to be released in China each year, pushing some films to delay their releases even as big global openings are becoming the norm. The new Star Wars film was bumped to 2016 in China.

But whether this is a zero-sum game between Hollywood and China’s expanding film industry is still yet to be seen. And both could still benefit side-by-side.

After all, Hollywood’s biggest and most successful blockbusters – from the action-packed to the animated – tend to resonate beyond the U.S., often rely on having a wide-global appeal and could thrive in China without competing too much with the country’s homegrown films. And with so much Chinese investment now flowing into Hollywood regularly from China, the rewards that can be reaped from blockbuster films that appeal in both countries (and beyond), benefits all parties involved.

But with the increasing quality of Chinese-made films, here’s another question: Is China’s film industry becoming a “Hollywood East,” which could some day make a push into the American market? Or is its future going to be more like India’s Bollywood, which produces twice as many films as the U.S. (often more) and has a larger domestic audience, but lacks crossover success?

Whatever happens in my point of view, it’s a win-win. Many have been lamenting the fall of the movie business as fewer people in America go to the theatres and more stay home watching Netflix and chilling. But now there’s more money to make great films and a billion new consumers that will watch them. China can help save this storytelling art form from being replaced by the 30- second YouTube video.

Brad Grossman is the founder and CEO of Zeitguide, a consultancy that guides business leaders on cultural trends.