霍尼韦尔收购联合技术失败原因在此

尽管霍尼韦尔对联合技术的收购存在重大障碍，但作为航天和建材领域的对手，外界普遍认为此举将为双方的股东创造更多财富。的确，如果两家公司能顺利整合，而且霍尼韦尔首席执行官高德威也是一位升级收购目标的大师，那么，双方合并而成的企业就有可能真的取得成功。

对霍尼韦尔来说，完成本次收购是一项巨大挑战。上周五，联合技术再次拒绝了霍尼韦尔的报价，理由是反垄断因素会让这桩交易直接告吹，或者监管上的耽搁以及资产剥离会让收购对联合技术股东产生不利影响。

的确，如果仔细推敲霍尼韦尔的报价以及创造大量价值所需的业绩提升，就会发现霍尼韦尔几乎没有犯错的空间。这项收购完全基于“协同效益”。但如果像联合技术说的那样，合并需要剥离大量资产，或者收购迟迟不能成行让联合技术陷入不稳定状态，又或者整合关闭工厂以及裁员的费用远远超过预期，两家公司的股东看到的可能就不是一场胜利，而是灾难。

今年2月19日，高德威向联合技术CEO贺国瑞递交了11页长的收购建议书。霍尼韦尔在上周五的新闻发布会上披露了其中的内容。该公司的最新报价为108美元。按霍尼韦尔的当前股价计算，其中包括42.63美元的现金和65.37美元的股票。提出收购的时间体现了霍尼韦尔的精明之处。

2015年4月，高德威和贺国瑞首次探讨合并问题时，联合技术的股价接近历史最高点，市值几乎达到1000亿美元，比霍尼韦尔的市值高200亿美元左右。

然而，两家公司随后的表现截然不同。霍尼韦尔在近期大盘深度下探的过程中安然无恙，股价没有受到影响。与之相反，2015年4-9月份，联合技术的股价下跌了26%，原因是业绩未达到预期。这让它的市值落在了霍尼韦尔后面。

联合技术股价下跌，再加上霍尼韦尔的股价表现尤其坚挺，可能是促使高德威在2015年9月底正式提出收购的动力所在。今年2月高德威重返工作岗位时，霍尼韦尔的股价刚刚创下107美元的新高，联合技术的股价则滑落至87美元；霍尼韦尔的市值达到了830亿美元，联合技术则为730亿。

基于此，霍尼韦尔就有可能用数量远少于以往的自身股票来换取价格受挫的联合技术股份。简而言之，联合技术突然变得“便宜”了，高德威随即出手。

但以这样的价格收购联合技术真的是一桩很棒的交易吗？未必。2014年底，联合技术把自己最薄弱的直升机制造业务，也就是西科斯基飞机公司转让给了洛克希德-马丁，价格为90亿美元。考虑到油价暴跌让西科斯基对大型石油公司的销售一落千丈，此举对联合技术来说着实合算。但联合技术的核心业务利润，也因此从2014年的65亿美元降至2015年的54亿美元。按每股108美元或整体900亿美元的报价计算，霍尼韦尔赋予联合技术的市盈率已经略高于16倍。

这对联合技术的股东来说是笔好生意。如果没什么重大变化，他们最终拿到的股份和现金将带来22%的溢价。霍尼韦尔介绍的情况则表明，联合技术得到的好处远不止于此。收购完成后，霍尼韦尔的股权价值将达到1350亿美元，联合技术方面持股40%。高德威预计，霍尼韦尔的股价将从106美元飙升至150美元附近，从而使市值提升590亿美元。其中，联合技术将占据390亿美元，溢价165亿，另外还会因股价上涨而获得220亿美元收益，总回报率为43%。

霍尼韦尔方面同样将收获颇丰。该公司股东的回报率将达到40%，而且均为资本收益。

这听上去很美。但高德威所说的这些真的能实现吗？介绍此项收购时，霍尼韦尔将两家公司的当期利润加在了一起，得到了106亿美元的数字，然后又加上了35亿的“税前协同效益”。扣除利息和税款后，协同效益的价值约为26亿美元。也就是说，霍尼韦尔预计合并后企业的净利润将达到120亿美元。按16倍的合理市盈率计算，霍尼韦尔预测的市值约为1940亿美元。

如果预言成真，霍尼韦尔和联合技术将分别获得43%和40%的收益。然而，假设未能产生协同效益，合并后公司的利润就只有94亿美元，市值也只会达到1510亿，而不是1940亿。预期中的160亿资本收益将化为泡影，再加上合并将耗时数年，原本出类拔萃的收益率将变得微不足道。

大家还要记住，了解双方谈判内容的人士透露，联合技术管理层认为自己的股票目前价值140美元左右。因此，如果霍尼韦尔像它宣称的那样相信这是一次绝佳的收购，它也许就得拿出更多的钞票。

反垄断审核可能需要两年，在此期间联合技术可能出现震荡，从而影响到它的核心业务。举例来说，市场研究机构Cowen & Co预计，监管部门可能要求合并后公司剥离航天业务，后者在总销售额中的比重为8%-10%。这种规模的合并可能会出现大量问题，比这还要大或者还要复杂的合并则寥寥无几。

两家公司都是这个世界上最成功的行业典范，双方的合并会成为历时数年的持久战。它最后也可能不了了之，但比这个还能引发遐想的事件确实屈指可数。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

校对：詹妮

Although Honeywell’s campaign to purchase United Technologies faces major hurdles, a union of the aerospace and building materials rivals is generally garnering praise as a deal that would enrich both companies’ shareholders. Indeed, if the integration goes smoothly—and Honeywell CEO Dave Cote is a master of upgrading businesses once he buys them—a new Honeywell-UTC could indeed prove a winner.

Honeywell faces a tough fight to get the deal done. On Friday, United Technologies utx , once again, rejected Honeywell’s bid arguing that the transaction would either be blocked outright for anti-trust reasons, or require regulatory delays and divestitures that would make the deal bad for UTC shareholders.

Indeed, a close look at what Honeywell hon is offering to pay, and the improvement in earnings needed to create lots of value, reveals that Honeywell has little margin for error. This deal is all about “synergies.” But If a merger requires big divestitures, or if its long-delayed closing traps UTC in limbo, as UTC suggest it would, or if the expense of combining and closing plants, and slimming the workforce, proves a lot bigger than expected, shareholders of both companies could witness not a triumph, but a smash-up.

Cote presented its offer to Hayes in an 11-page proposal at a February 19 meeting. Honeywell published the presentation in a press release on Friday. The new offer of $108 is divided between $42.63 in cash and $65.37 in stock, at Honeywell’s current price. The timing looks shrewd. When Cote and UTC’s CEO Greg Hayes first discussed a tie-up in April, UTC’s stock stood near a record, and its market cap reached almost $100 billion, about $20 billion higher than Honeywell’s. But then, the two companies’ fortunes sharply diverged. Honeywell weathered the recent big downturn in the general market with no damage to its shares. By contrast, UTC’s stock fell 26% from April to September following disappointing earnings. That decline pushed its market value below Honeywell’s.

The fall in UTC shares, especially compared to the resilience of his own stock, probably encouraged Cote to make a formal offer in late September. When he returned in February, Honeywell had just hit an all-time high of $107, and UTC shares were languishing at $87, giving Honeywell a market cap of $83 billion versus $73 billion for its target. Hence, Honeywell could now purchase UTC’s depressed stock with far fewer of its own shares. Put simply, UTC has suddenly gotten “cheap,” and Cote pounced.

But is buying UTC really a great deal at these prices? Not necessarily. In late 2014, UTC sold its weakest business, helicopter-maker Sikorsky, to Lockheed Martin for $9 billion. Given that the oil price collapse has pummeled Sikorsky sales to oil majors, it was a terrific deal for UTC. But it lowered core earnings from $6.5 billion in 2014 to $5.4 billion in 2015. So at its bid of $108, or $90 billion, Honeywell would be paying a price-to-earnings ratio of just over 16 for UTC.

That’s a good deal for UTC shareholders. They’d be receiving a 22% premium in stock and cash at the closing, if nothing much changes before then. But according to the presentation, it gets a lot better. At closing, Honeywell’s equity value would be $135 billion, with the UTC camp owning 40% of the stock. Cote is predicting that Honeywell’s shares will soar from $106 to almost $150, creating $59 billion in new market value. Of that number, the UTC crowd would receive $39 billion, a total of the $16.5 billion premium, plus an additional gain of $22 billion on gains in the stock, for a total return of 43%.

It would be pretty rich for the Honeywell folks as well. Its shareholders would collect a 40% return, all in capital gains.

Sounds great. But are the improvements Cote promises really achievable? In the presentation, Honeywell totals the current earnings of both companies; that number is $10.6 billion. It then adds $3.5 billion in “synergies before tax.” After deducting interest and taxes—the synergies are worth about $2.6 billion after tax—Honeywell forecasts that the combined companies should post $12 billion in net income. Applying a reasonable 16 multiple, Honeywell forecasts a market value of roughly $194 billion.

If Honeywell gets there, then the two camps will receive their 43% and 40% gains. But let’s say the synergies don’t happen. Then the combination earns just $9.4 billion, and the market cap becomes $151 billion, not $194 billion. All but $16 billion of the projected capital gains evaporate, and that’s over several years. Returns fade from excellent to puny.

Keep in mind that UTC management, according to people familiar with the discussions, think its shares are worth around $140 right now. So Honeywell may be forced to pay more if it believes the deal is as great as its presentation claims. The anti-trust review period could last two years, and that waiting period would leave UTC in limbo, potentially damaging its core businesses. Cowen & Co, for example, forecasts that the combination would be forced by regulators to divest aerospace businesses accounting for 8% to 10% of its total sales. A lot can go wrong in a merger this size, and few are bigger or more complicated.

This is a battle for the ages between two of the most successful industrial icons on the planets. It may not happen, but few spectacles have been more fascinating to behold.