《蝙蝠侠大战超人》值得看吗？

上周末，两大势力在世界各地的影院中展开激战。狂热粉丝和众多持负面态度的影评人针锋相对，后者把最新超级英雄巨制《蝙蝠侠大战超人：正义黎明》斥为一场“灾难”，一桌“难以消化……索然无味的菜”。

从经济角度而言，至少时代华纳旗下的华纳兄弟，也就是《蝙超》的出品方或许最终会成为真正的赢家。这部超级英雄大片顶住了接二连三的批评，实现了高达1.66亿美元的北美首映周末票房。全球范围内，《蝙超》已入账约4.20亿美元，有望成为历史上首映周末总票房最高的影片之一，以及第四卖座的漫画改编电影。据报道，华纳兄弟为该片投资2.50亿美元。如果不考虑营销和推广成本，《蝙超》已经实现盈利。

对华纳兄弟来说，这显然是个巨大利好。该公司计划在今后四年里再推出至少10部DC漫画改编电影。对于这个系列的开篇之作，华纳兄弟为《蝙超》投入了大量资金。不过，尽管炒作和无休止的营销帮助该片在第一个周末压倒了众多负面评论，但宣布胜利对华纳兄弟来说或许依然为时过早。

说《蝙超》得到的评价褒贬不一也许不够贴切。它的烂番茄新鲜度只有29%（基于260多位影评人的打分），非常令人失望；而在该网站上留言的观影者中，73%的人表示喜欢这部电影。在市场研究机构CinemaScore的网站上，观众对《蝙超》的评分为“B”。观众最初的激动之情有可能被一边倒的不利评论淹没吗？或者，该片能否携首映周末的余威，成为今年的重磅作品之一呢？要想如此，它就得超过另一部超级英雄电影《死侍》。

市场调查公司ComScore高级媒体分析师保罗•德加拉贝迪安说：“长期来看，人们总是希望获得积极评价。”他指出，出彩的评论给去年的《星球大战：原力觉醒》带来了长时间的成功，让这部影片在大约两个月时间里创造出了逾20亿美元的全球票房。

据彭博社报道，《蝙超》的全球总票房需要达到11.5亿美元，才能在利润上跟近期的同类超级英雄片一较高下，后者包括迪士尼的热门漫威电影，以及华纳的最新蝙蝠侠三部曲，总之就是史上最叫座的超级英雄电影集。毫无疑问，《蝙超》的亮相十分精彩，但它在这个周末的票房很可能大幅下滑，因为即便是重磅影片中的佼佼者，情况通常也会如此。

近几年，制作预算和首映周末票房接近《蝙超》的超级英雄大片有三部，分别是迪士尼的《复仇者联盟2：奥创纪元》和《钢铁侠3》以及华纳的《蝙蝠侠前传3：黑暗骑士崛起》。电影票房统计网站Box Office Mojo的数据显示，这三部电影的次周末票房平均比首周末低60%左右。

同时，首周末票房平均占这三部电影北美总票房的40.6%。如果《蝙超》遵循类似轨迹（这一点非常不确定），它最终将在北美斩获4.084亿美元；按截至目前的表现计算，该片的海外票房则可能达到11亿美元。

换句话说，到目前为止，《蝙超》的出色表现让它有可能真的堵住诸多批评者的嘴，从而证明负面评论未必都是票房毒药。

当然，华纳兄弟仍有理由感到担心。挑剔的批评可能会让《蝙超》无法像此前的一些超级英雄大片那样经久不衰（上述三部影片的平均烂番茄新鲜度在80%以上，上一部蝙蝠侠电影《黑暗骑士崛起》的新鲜度更是达到了令人赞叹的87%）。

娱乐资讯网站The Hollywood Reporter认为，《蝙超》票房高开得益于多个因素，其中之一是该片基本上在全球最大的几个电影市场同时上映，包括中国。这也意味着它随后的海外票房不会因为上映时间较晚而出现波动。该网站还指出，《蝙超》的首映周末观众大多是年轻白人男性，这个群体包括业界所说“狂热粉丝”。对许多这样的粉丝来说，无论评价多么尖刻，他们都会去看这部电影。还不清楚不那么热衷于漫画改编电影的观众是否会像前者一样对批评者的“请勿观影”劝诫置若罔闻。

《蝙超》首周末告捷的另一大原因则要简单得多，那就是时机。差不多两年前，华纳兄弟做出了一项战略性决策，那就是把2016年春季影片《蝙超》的上映时间从5月初提前到3月底，原因是这样做可以避开定于5月6日上映的《美国队长3：内战》，从而让票房争夺战变得不那么激烈。

这项决定起了作用，上周末《蝙超》的最大竞争对手是热映多日的迪士尼动画电影《疯狂动物城》以及喜剧片《我的盛大希腊婚礼2》。后两部影片的周末北美票房均未超过2500万美元，而下一个重量级影片上映前，《蝙超》还有五个周末来积累票房。

同时，华纳兄弟可以祈祷，希望《蝙超》上周末的优秀票房能掩盖影评人的冷言冷语。

分析师德加拉贝迪安可以肯定的一点是，他从未见过哪部电影的影评人口碑和票房反差引发如此之多的议论。他还说，此外，业界和媒体花了这么多时间来探讨这些因素，“只会让人们更好奇，更想去看这部电影。”（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

校对：詹妮

This past weekend, movie theaters worldwide played host to a battle between two powerful forces. Fanboy enthusiasts collided head-on with an avalanche of negative critics deriding the latest superhero blockbuster, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, as a “disaster” and an “indigestible. . .mope-fest.”

The real winner—financially speaking, at least—might end up being Time Warner’sWarner Bros., the studio behind Dawn of Justice.The movie overcame its critical pummeling to rake in an impressive $166 million in domestic ticket sales in its first weekend. Worldwide, the superhero spectacle collected roughly $420 million on its way to posting one of the highest-grossing opening weekends of all-time, and the fourth-highest ever for a comic-book adaptation. The film has already more than made back the reported $250 million Warner Bros. spent on the film, not counting marketing and promotion costs.

That’s obviously great news for Warner Bros., which has a lot invested in this movie as a launching-pad for at least 10 more DC Comics films planned for release over the next four years. However, while hype and endless marketing helped Dawn of Justiceovercome the wealth of negative reviews for one weekend, it may still be too early for the movie studio to declare victory.

To say Dawn of Justice has received mixed reviews might be an understatement. The movie sports a very disappointing “29% Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes (based on reviews from more than 260 critics), though 73% of moviegoers on that site say they like it and the film received a “B” rating from audiences through CinemaScore. Is it possible the film’s overwhelmingly negative critical reception will catch up with audiences’ initial excitement? Or, can Dawn of Justice ride its opening weekend momentum to become one of this year’s biggest films (it would have to overtake another superhero movie, Deadpool)?

“Long-term, you always want to have good reviews,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at ComScore SCOR -0.10% . Great reviews bolsteredStar Wars: The Force Awakens‘ long-term success last year, he notes, helping the movie generate more than $2 billion in global ticket sales over roughly two months in theaters.

According to Bloomberg, Dawn of Justice would need to gross $1.15 billion worldwide in order to match the profits of comparable recent superhero films such as Walt Disney’s DIS 0.89% popular Marvel movies or Warner’s three most recent Batman films—a collection that includes many of the highest-grossing superhero films ever. Dawn of Justice is off to a great start, no doubt, but the film is due for a major drop-off at the box office starting this weekend, as is typically the case with even the biggest blockbusters.

A breakdown of three superhero blockbusters—Disney’s Avengers: Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3, as well as Warner’s The Dark Knight Rises—from the past few years, with similar production budgets and opening weekend grosses to Dawn of Justice, shows an average drop-off in ticket sales between the films’ first and second weekends of about 60%, according to Box Office Mojo.

In terms of overall gross, those three other films made an average of 40.6% of their total domestic box office gross in their first weekend. If Dawn of Justice follows a similar trajectory—a big ‘if’—it would ultimately pull in an estimated total of $408.4 million in domestic ticket sales, and perhaps as much as $1.1 billion worldwide, based on its overseas performance so far.

In other words, the movie’s success so far puts it on a path that would effectively silence its (many) critics, proving that negative reviews aren’t necessarily box office kryptonite.

Of course, Warner Bros. still has reason to be worried. The film’s critical drubbing could prevent it from seeing the kind of staying power that some of its superhero blockbuster predecessors experienced. (The three other films mentioned above averaged 80% Rotten Tomatoes scores from critics, led by a whopping 87% Fresh rating for the previous Batman film, The Dark Knight Rises.)

The Hollywood Reporter notes that Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice‘s massive opening was propelled by a variety of factors, including the fact the film opened simultaneously in essentially all of the world’s largest movie markets, including China. That means the movie can’t count on a future bump in overseas revenue due to a delayed release schedule. THR also noted that Dawn of Justice‘s opening weekend audience base was largely made up of young, white males—a demographic that includes what the industry refers to as “fanboys,” many of whom likely would have turned out to see the film no matter the critical reception. It’s not yet known whether moviegoers less devoted to the comic book adaptation genre will be as willing to ignore critics’ pleas to skip the film.

Another major factor in Dawn of Justice‘s blockbuster first weekend is much more simple: timing. Nearly two years ago, Warner Bros. made the strategic decision to move up Batman v Superman‘s spring 2016 release to late-March from early-May. The reasoning was that an earlier release would give the film weaker box office competition by avoiding the early-May release of Marvel’sCaptain America: Civil War (May 6).

That plan worked, as the movie’s biggest competition last weekend was from Disney’s popular animated holdover Zootopia and another sequel in comedy My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2. Neither film grossed more than $25 million domestically over the weekend, and Dawn of Justicenow has five more weekends to try to cash in at the box office before another major tentpole film arrives in theaters.

Meanwhile, Warner Bros. can cross its fingers and hope that the positive financial buzz its movie generated over the weekend can manage to overshadow the seriously chilly reception critics have offered Clark Kent and the Caped Crusader.

One thing ComScore’s Dergarabedian is sure of is that he’s never seen this level of discussion around the disconnect between a film’s critical response and its box office success. What’s more, he adds, the fact that the industry and the media have spent so much time discussing these factors, “can only serve to make people more curious and interested in seeing the film.”