迪士尼应该收购Netflix?

2015年，以神奇魔法和怀旧之情为卖点的公司沃特•迪斯尼遭遇了一些非常现实的难题。

随着消费者逐渐抛弃捆绑频道，投入流媒体点播的怀抱，这家娱乐巨头在美国娱乐体育节目电视网（ESPN）的收视率节节下滑——而ESPN是该公司有线网络中最重头的部分。截至2015财年末，迪斯尼已经损失了700万观众，投资者为此忧心忡忡，股价也一路走低。坏消息还不止于此，在本周早些时候，迪斯尼的法定继承人和首席运营官托马斯•斯塔格斯也离开了公司。

接下来应该做什么？

有人建议迪斯尼加强与亚马逊或Dish的合作。首席执行官鲍勃•伊格尔也暗示ESPN可能会建立一个直面消费者的更强平台——尽管这些计划都没有得到具体实施。

不过，投资公司宏桥信托投资集团（BTIG）表示，还有一个万能方案：这个米老鼠的诞生地应该收购奈飞公司（Netflix）。

在上周五的一份报告中，BTIG的分析师理查德•格林菲尔德指出，奈飞与迪斯尼已经有了持续的共生关系。BTIG对迪斯尼的股票给出了“卖出”评级。

格林菲尔德写道：“奈飞已经是迪斯尼的亲密伙伴，实际上，伊格尔已经多次承认他们对奈飞的成功起到了部分作用。迪斯尼正在把越来越多的电影和电视剧等内容卖给奈飞，与此同时，他们在英国推行直面消费者的内容业务却十分艰难。收购奈飞的代价很大，但这可能是迪斯尼唯一的希望。”

对奈飞而言，这次交易意味着这家年轻的公司可以打破“直播”电视的界限，联手一家根深蒂固的电影制片公司。对迪斯尼而言，他们可以获得一家已经了解并有条件继续发展直面消费者的流媒体模式的公司。

还不止于此。

奈飞也许还能提供迪斯尼损失斯塔格斯的解决方案：奈飞的首席执行官里德•哈斯廷斯。格林菲尔德认为他“具有远见”。与此同时，迪斯尼的观察者也在怀疑是否有人能够取代他们最重要的首席执行官伊格尔。BTIG还表示，没错，奈飞很贵，拥有450亿美元的市值和企业价值，而迪斯尼的市值为1,570亿美元，企业价值为1,670亿美元。根据这些估值，奈飞的出售价值不太可能低于1,000亿美元。

并非所有的华尔街分析师都不看好迪斯尼，或是认为迪斯尼没有能力扭转ESPN收视率的情况。

加拿大皇家银行（RBC）的史蒂文•卡豪尔在上周五表示，他们会持续关注ESPN的订阅数，给迪斯尼的股票一个“基于市场表现的评级”。

他写道：“我们注意到迪斯尼有许多分支，例如现金投资和更高结构上的制片收益。因此，我们认为ESPN这个分支的损失值得继续关注，但不应被看作是持有股票的结构性障碍。”（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

In the past year, Walt Disney, a company that sells itself on magic and nostalgia, has struggled with some very real problems.

The entertainment conglomerate has grappled with falling ESPN viewership—the largest division within its cable networks—as consumers turn away from bundled channels and flee to the world of on-demand streaming. The company lost 7 million viewers by the end of fiscal year 2015, worrying investors and dragging its stock down. The bad news continued flowing when, earlier this week, heir apparent and Chief Operating Officer, Thomas Staggs left the company.

So what is to be done?

Some have suggested that Disney strengthen their partnerships with Amazon or Dish. CEO Bob Iger has also hinted that ESPN might create a stronger direct to consumer platform—though none of those plans have fully materialized.

But according to one investment firm, BTIG, there is another fix-all answer: the house of mouse should buy Netflix.

In a Friday note, BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield noted that Netflix and Disney already have an ongoing, symbiotic relationship. BTIG has a “sell” rating on Disney’s stock.

“Netflix is already a great friend of Disney, in fact, Iger has repeatedly acknowledged how they are in part responsible for Netflix’s success. Disney continues to sell more and more content to Netflix spanning movies and television series, while at the same time struggling to get their own direct-to-consumer content business off-the-ground in the UK,” Greenfield wrote. “Buying Netflix is an awfully expensive acquire, but it could be Disney’s only hope.”

For Netflix, the exchange means the younger company also would breach the “live” TV space and gain a well-established film studio. And for Disney, the company would be snapping up a company that already understands and has the infrastructure to grow its direct-to-consumer streaming model.

And guess what?

Netflixmight also have the answer to the loss of Staggs: Netflix CEO Reed Hastings. A man who is “visionary,” said Greenfield. Meanwhile, Disney watchers have been wondering if anyone could replace their larger-than-life CEO, Iger. BTIG also noted that yes, Netflix is expensive, with a $45 billion market cap and enterprise value against Disney’s $157 billion market cap and $167 billion enterprise value. With those valuations, it’s unlikely Netflix will sell below $100 billion.

Not all analysts on the street feel so bearish about Disney or its ability to turn ESPN around.

RBC’s Steven Cahall sent out a Friday note saying that they would keep an eye on ESPN’s subscription figures, giving Disney’s stock a “market perform rating.”

“We note that Disney has plenty of offsets, such as cash deployment and structurally higher Studio earnings,” he wrote. “We thus think ESPN sub loss is worth keeping an eye on, but should not be viewed as a structural impediment to owning the shares.”