美国经济能否跟上债务增长步伐

下面所提到的这个有关美国未来经济的观点可能会让你感到震惊，我也不例外。在未来10年中，尽管一大波债务和赤字会让一个主流工业化国家的几乎所有问题感到相形见绌，但美国的信用状况依旧有可能在全球名列前茅。

原因何在？美国拥有两大独特的优势，而这两大异常强大的优势很有可能会帮助解决美国日渐显现的财政严重恶化问题。这两大优势分别是巨大的经济优势，以及美元对于全球资本的吸引力。

这是穆迪投资者服务的新报告《重要的金融、经济地位将抵消日渐匮乏的政府财政》（Preeminent Financial, Economic Position Offsets Weakening Government Finances）的主题。该报告指出，“美国拥有不同寻常的能力，能够背负大量的政府债务负担，这在全球范围内是不多见的。”该报告勾勒出了一个不同寻常的未来，其中，美国将比以往更多地依靠其无可比拟的强大实力，来应对严重恶化的资产负债所带来的压力。

穆迪曾就近期通过的《税收削减与就业法案》发布了预测，而这一报告是对该预测的补充。该法案将导致未来几年内财政收入的大幅减少以及赤字的膨胀。就在该报告发布后不久，美国国会通过了2018年上调自主性支出金额1500亿美元的动议，因此，该报告未能够在预测中囊括这一拨款所带来的各种影响。

报告首要作者、穆迪高级副总裁萨拉·卡尔森说：“我们已经调高了国防预算占GDP的比重，而且创下了历史新高”。萨拉还表示，穆迪并没有计算非防御部分的削减。“很明显，这些新增的拨款将增加支出预算的压力。”

如今，穆迪授予了美国主权债务最高评级Aaa级。如果美国评级遭到下调，所有的出借方、其他国家、银行和个人，都将要求得到更高的收益率。这一威胁对于国会的赤字鹰派来说是一个有利的武器。然而，对美国信用评级的担忧而导致的利率上涨（外加收益率的上涨已成定局）可能会引发危机。

但这并非是穆迪所预测的最可能出现的局面。报告指出，“在可预见的未来，我们预计美国基本的经济实力可以支撑其信用评级。”

卡尔森指出，巨大的威胁来自于主要的结构性下滑，它将阻碍未来经济增长。如果特朗普总统最终实施了他在竞选时所提出的保护主义议程，那么上述威胁便可能会成为现实。然而，除非美国经济政策出现历史性反转，美国的信用状况将出人意料的强劲。卡尔森说：“在报告中，我们希望表达一个较为平衡的观点。我们不希望读者忽略美国所拥有的异常强大的实力，而其他评级较高的国家并不具备这样的实力。”

然而，美国的债务水平正在快速增长，也让上述前景显得异常脆弱。如今，美国作为经济巨头的地位对于避免这一前所未有的信贷格局异常重要。以下是财政收入下降主要推动因素以及抵消性力量：

巨大的问题：增长的逐渐消失

自2007和2008年的大萧条之后，美国经济增长前景出现了大幅下滑。在战后的数十年中，GDP年增速通常在3%左右。如今，国会预算办公室、经合组织、世界银行和国际货币基金组织均预测，未来10-15年的增速会出现约30%的下滑，也就是将停留在2%的水平。大多数其他大型工业化国家的表现和预期也出现了类似的下滑。穆迪还预测，美国未来10-15年的长期增速将降至2%的水平。报告称，这仍是一个“健康值”，但它同时指出，美国将被发展中国家所赶超，后者的增速降幅要远远小于工业化国家。

更为严重的问题：“债务可承受性”

报告指出，美国债务和财政赤字在税改出台之前一直在陡升。自2008年以来，联邦债务总额翻了一番，而联邦借贷占GDP的比重则飙升了40个百分点，于2017年达到了77%。

正如穆迪在报告中所提到的那样，美国去年的财政赤字占GDP的3.4%，在工业化国家中仅次于日本，而且差距在迅速拉大。穆迪预测，债务占美国收入的比重将在2027年跃升至略微超过100%的水平，而新的税收削减将让此前预测的约95%的比重增加5个百分点。

问题在于：虽然债务会飙升，但利息支出的幅增会更快，原因有两个：第一，穆迪认为，利率不仅会大幅增长，而且增幅会比国会预算办公室的预测要快得多，从当前的2.9%增至2024年的4.3%；第二，美国债务的平均期限为6年，这意味着账面上的大多数低收益债券将在未来10年之内会被用于兑换更加昂贵的债务，从而进一步提升未来利息成本。卡尔森表示，“在英国，债务的平均期限约为15年，而其他大多数欧洲国家为7-8年。”

利息支出的增幅将超过借贷的增速，这一现象将让美国的债务变得异常昂贵，而且在最坏的情况下超出人们的承受能力。如今，美国将8.1%的联邦收入用于偿还债务，在经合组织国家中仅有意大利超过了这一水平。穆迪预测，到2027年，用于偿债的收入比重将飙升至21.4%，也就是每征收5美元的税，就有超过1美元的费用被用于偿债。

卡尔森表示，“在评估利息负担时，最重要的指标莫过于占财政收入的比重。财政收入会被用于支付政府项目。如果利息支出所占的比重更大，那么在其他方面的开支就会受限。”卡尔森还表示，利息支出占比的快速增长将大大增加提升基础设施、教育或社区医疗支出的难度。

美国的独特优势

穆迪强调，美元在全球经济中的中心重要地位将有助于美国应对上述一些问题。由于其他国家在出口时会采用美元结算，因此美国一直都可以利用这一巨大的资金池来销售其债券，并填补赤字缺口。这种绿色纸背钞票能够让美国抵御可能会为其他国家带来灭顶之灾的动荡。在全球危机当中，投资者和政府将美国国债和其他美元资产作为避险港。简单来说，美国将从中获益匪浅，因为它可以一直借贷，而且通常能拿到很低的利率。

报告还提到了美国无与伦比的经济规模和经济多元化特性。美国拥有全球最为灵活的劳动力市场之一。美国国内所使用的能源和食品大部分都能自给自足，也让美国在面对全球大宗商品价格动荡时有了一道缓冲墙。美国还受益于本国生生不息的创业精神，并拥有全球最大规模的服务行业，以及5家全球最大的科技公司。

卡尔森表示，得益于其强有力的美元和经济实力，美国是一个特殊的案例。该国承担巨额债务的能力要比其竞争对手强得多。

可能导致财政危机的因素

穆迪警告说：“潜在的增长放缓，再加上对贸易开放和外国劳动力的日渐反感以及全球竞争的加剧，可能会导致‘比较优势’这一重要的资源在长时间内消耗殆尽。”当然，“相对优势”指的是美国的两大中流砥柱：出类拔萃的美元以及一直以来上佳的经济实绩。

穆迪并没有就可能导致出现财政危机的过失做任何预测。但以下是我对这类过失的一些看法。如果政府取消北美自由贸易协定，并大幅控制外国劳动力的流入，那么经济增速可能会降至2%以下，联邦税收也会下降。我们的利息负担将远超出当前所预测的21.4%的水平。美国Aaa评级很有可能遭到下调。出借方也会受到打击，并要求这个曾被认为是全球最安全的国债提供更高的收益率，而这将进一步推高利息成本，有可能会引发全面的财政危机。

对于美国的经济统治地位如何帮助美国抵御可能会为其竞争国带来毁灭性打击的财政政策，穆迪的报告介绍了重要的基本知识。如果美国仍能保留其传统的强大经济实力，即使资产负债规模有所下降，但美国卓越的信用评级依然能保持不变。但这是对未来10年的预测。正如卡尔森所说的那样，重大削减与支出以及财政收入的巨大增长哪一样都不能缺。如果美国无法实现这一点，那么将在10年后遭遇债务“可承受性”风险。这一预测看起来还很遥远，但美国当前的做法却预示着一个灾难性的结局。（财富中文网）

译者：冯丰

审稿：夏林

Here’s a view of America’s economic future that may amaze you; it certainly floored me. Over the next decade, America’s credit standing is likely to remain top-of-the-line—despite a wave of debt and deficits dwarfing almost anything experienced by a major industrialized nation.

The reason: The U.S. boasts two unique advantages so potent that they’re likely to blunt the looming, severe deterioration in our fiscal outlook. Those advantages are tremendous economic strength, and the dollar’s power as magnet for global capital.

That’s the thesis of a new report from Moody’s Investors Service, entitled “Preeminent Financial, Economic Position Offsets Weakening Government Finances.” “The U.S. stands out in the global context [for] an unusually high ability to carry a large government debt burden,” the study states. It outlines an extraordinary scenario in which America will depend more than ever before on its matchless muscle to counteract the pressures from a severely deteriorating balance sheet.

Moody’s issued the report to update its forecasts in light of the recently enacted Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, a measure that will severely curtail revenues, and swell deficits, in the years to come. The study appeared just before a recent deal in which Congress passed a $150 billion increase in discretionary spending for 2018, so it didn’t incorporate all of the appropriation’s impact in its projections.

“We had already adjusted defense spending as a share of GDP upwards to historic levels,” says lead author Sarah Carlson, a Moody’s SVP, who adds that Moody’s hasn’t yet run the numbers on the non-defense cuts. “Clearly, these new appropriations will put upward pressure on the expenditure line.”

Today, Moody’s awards the U.S. its highest rating for sovereign bonds, Aaa. Were the U.S. to suffer a downgrade, all borrowers, foreign nations, banks and individuals, would demand much higher rates. That menace is a favorite bogeyman for deficit hawks in Congress. And a spike in rates caused by worries over U.S. credit, on top of the rise in yields already in the cards, could ignite a crisis.

But that’s not an outcome Moody’s foresees as most likely. “We expect the U.S.’s broad economic strength to support its credit profile for the foreseeable future,” states the study.

The big threat, says Carlson, is a major, structural downshift that hobbles future growth. And that could happen if President Trump actually delivers on the protectionist agenda he championed as a candidate. But barring an historic reversal in U.S. economic policy, the credit outlook is surprisingly positive. “In the report, we wanted to express a balanced view. We don’t want readers to forget the significant strengths that the U.S. has, and that other highly-rated countries don’t have,” says Carlson.

Still, America’s indebtedness is growing at a rapid pace, making the outlook unusually fragile. Remaining an economic juggernaut is now essential to averting a credit crunch, a situation we’ve never faced before. Here are the prime drivers of our fiscal decline, and the countervailing strengths.

The big problem: Diminishing growth

Following the Great Recession of 2007 and 2008, the outlook for U.S growth declined substantially. In the post-war decades, the GDP typically advanced at around 3% annually. Today, the CBO, OECD, World Bank and IMF all forecast expansion about one-third lower, at 2%. Most of the other big industrialized nations have experienced a similar decline in both performance and expectations. Moody’s also expects the U.S. long-term growth to decelerate to around 2% in the next 10 to 15 years. That’s still a “healthy level,” says the report, but it signals that the U.S. will lose ground to developing nations, which are suffering far smaller declines in growth than the industrialized world.

The even bigger problem: “Debt affordability”

As the report notes, America’s debt and deficits were on a steep upward trajectory before passage of the tax cuts. Since 2008, total federal debt has doubled, and the ratio of federal borrowings to GDP has jumped by 40 points, to 77% in 2017.

As Moody’s points out, last year’s deficit of 3.4% of GDP was the highest of any industrialized nation except Japan, and the shortfall is headed skyward. Moody’s forecasts that debt to national income will jump to just over 100% by 2027, and that the new tax cuts will have added 5 points to the previous forecasts of around 95%.

Here’s the rub: Although debt will surge, interest payments will rise a lot faster–for two reasons. First, Moody’s reckons that rates will not only increase substantially, but wax a lot more quickly than the CBO projects, going from the current 2.9% to 4.3% by 2024. Second, the average time to maturity on U.S. debt is six years, meaning that most of the low-yielding bonds now on the books will be exchanged for more expensive debt over the next decade. further raising future interest costs. “In the U.K., the average time to maturity is around 15 years, and it’s 7 to 8 years in most other major European countries,” says Carlson.

The acceleration in interest expense, exceeding the rapid trajectory of borrowing, will make America’s debt far less affordable, and at worst, unaffordable. Today, the U.S devotes 8.1% of federal revenues to debt service, a level exceeded only by Italy among major OECD nations. By 2027, the share going to interest will catapult to 21.4%, according to Moody’s forecast, or more than one dollar for every five tax dollars collected.

“For assessing the interest burden, the most important measure is the share of revenues,” says Carlson. “Revenues pay for government programs. If interest takes a larger share of the pie, that puts constraints on other choices.” Interest’s fast-growing slice, Carlson continues, makes it much more difficult to fund infrastructure, education or community health care.

America’s unique strengths

Moody’s stresses that the dollar’s central, essential role in the global economy will help the U.S. address some of these problems. Because foreign nations park their export earnings in dollars, the U.S. can always tap a deep pool of savings to sell its bonds and finance its deficits. The greenback cushions the U.S. against shocks that can ravage competing nations. In a global crisis, investors and governments seek in Treasuries and other dollar assets as a safe haven. Put simply, the U.S. benefits from a big edge because it can always borrow, and usually at excellent rates.

The report also evokes America’s unmatched scale and economic diversity. The U.S. boasts one of the world’s most flexible labor markets. We supply most of the energy and food consumed at home, providing a cushion against swings in global commodity prices. The U.S. benefits from a great entrepreneurial spirit, and harbors the world’s largest service sector, encompassing five of the world’s biggest tech companies.

Thanks to the potent dollar and its economic might, the U.S. is a special case, says Carlson. Its ability to shoulder mountainous debt is far greater than that of competing nations.

Here’s what could cause a fiscal

As Moody’s warns, “Declining growth potential, coupled with an emerging aversion to open trade and foreign labor and rising global competition may cause this key source of relative strength to erode over the long term.” Of course, the “relative strength” refers to the America’s twin champions, the transcendent dollar and the traditionally superb performance of its economy.

Moody’s doesn’t make any predictions about missteps that could lead to a fiscal crisis. But here’s my take on what could go wrong. If the the Administration shuts down NAFTA and substantially curbs the influx of foreign workers growth could fall below 2%, and federal tax collections would drop. Our interest burden would soar beyond the 21.4% of revenues now forecast. America’s Aaa rating would very likely be downgraded. Borrowers would get spooked, and demand higher rates on what were once perceived as the world’s safest bonds. That would further inflate interest costs, likely triggering a full-blown fiscal crisis.

The Moody’s report is an important primer in how America’s economic dominance provides a shield for fiscal policies that would ruin our global competitors. If we retain our traditional power, our stellar credit rating will remain in place, defying the decline in our balance sheet. But that’s the ten-year view. As Carlson says, both major cuts and spending and major increases in revenue are essential. If they don’t happen, the U.S. risks a debt “affordability” crisis in the 10 years after that. The reckoning may be a long way off. But our current course promises a rendezvous with disaster.