苹果在中国：iPhone销量不振的深层原因

今年1月2日，苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克写信给投资者，将一季度收入指标由890亿至930亿美元调降至840亿美元。我认为这并不是最大的问题，已经有人指出从调降指标可以看出苹果内部遇到了大麻烦。

库克承认iPhone业务走软。他还特别提到主要原因是中国市场。库克表示，苹果收入下降全由中国市场导致，中国经济较预期疲软和中美贸易战都让情况更复杂。

事实上，近年来苹果在中国市场犯了不少大错。尽管上一季度市场有些大动荡，但苹果在中国的窘况与特朗普发动的贸易战关系没那么大。

如果对过往比较留心就会发现，苹果在中国的问题不是刚刚开始。销售不景气已经持续一段时间了。

收入

2014年四季度，或2015年第一个财务季度，苹果在中国的收入曾达到161亿美元，占全球收入的22%。一年前，苹果在中国市场的收入为180亿美元，约占全球收入的20%。到了第四个财务季度，或者说2018年三季度，中国市场收入为114亿美元，约占全球收入的18%。

安全

与此同时，苹果跟中国政府打交道一直不太顺。其实在某些方面苹果已经让步，满足了政府要求，一些用户很愤怒，也导致苹果在国外出现问题。

2017年苹果决定从中国地区应用商店里删除VPN应用程序，就是最好的例子。 在中国很多人用VPN绕开防火墙。苹果的决定在中国和其他很多地方都受到广泛批评。有些人认为此举是苹果牺牲用户群以维持与中国政府的关系。

知识产权

苹果在中国的环境也比想象中危险。去年科技媒体The Verge列出很多例子证明，中国到处都有苹果的仿制品。中国公司制造的手机几乎跟iPhone一模一样，软件功能也差不多。但价格比iPhone便宜得多，还经常能享受中国政府和法院的袒护。结果是，大批中国消费者转而购买国产手机，苹果只能接受事实继续想办法。

价格标签

更重要的是，苹果似乎毫不理会价格方面的抱怨。不管乐不乐意买，现在iPhone就是太贵。随着中国经济下滑，中产阶级口袋中的钱减少，苹果却将iPhone定如此高价，吸引力大不如前。

去年苹果推出了iPhone XS、iPhone XS Max和iPhone XR时，比较简单的策略是保留价格更低的iPhone SE。但苹果没有这么做。全球各地的人们只得多花几百美元买新款iPhone，要么继续使用现有的产品。iPhone SE售价350美元，比较便宜也比较吸引人。比较起来，iPhone XS Max售价最低为1,099美元，绝对谈不上价廉物美。

列举这么多并不是说，苹果在中国没有受到贸易和经济衰退的影响。只想说明，苹果在中国遇到的问题已存在多年，而且很多都是自找的。（财富中文网）

译者：冯丰

审校：夏林

On January 2, Apple CEO Tim Cook wrote a letter to investors revising downward the company’s revenue guidance for its first fiscal quarter from an expected range of $89 billion to $93 billion to $84 billion now. While I’m not one to believe it’s the biggest of problems, there are some who say it’s the latest sign of real trouble inside Apple.

For his part, Cook acknowledged softness in the iPhone division. And he specifically said that China was largely to blame. More than 100% of Apple’s revenue decline happened in China, Cook said, and a combination of a weaker-than-expected Chinese economy and trade problems between China and the U.S. combined to create issues.

The fact, however, is that Apple has made some big mistakes in China in recent years. And although some major market factors arose last quarter, much of what’s happening to Apple in China goes beyond Donald Trump’s trade war.

If you’re keeping score, Apple’s China problems didn’t just begin. In fact, stagnation has been a problem for some time now.

Revenue

Back in the fourth quarter of 2014, or Apple’s first fiscal quarter in 2015, China revenue stood at $16.1 billion and accounted for 22% of the company’s global revenue. A year ago, Apple’s China revenue was $18 billion, or about 20% of its revenue. During Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter, which includes the third quarter of 2018, China revenue was $11.4 billion, or about 18% of its global revenue.

Security

Meanwhile, the Chinese government has been difficult for Apple to deal with. And in some cases, Apple has capitulated to its demands, angering customers and causing the company problems abroad.

Look no further than Apple’s decision in 2017 to remove VPN applications from its Chinese App Store as a prime example of that. VPNs are widely used in China to circumvent the company’s Great Firewall. Apple’s decision was widely criticized both inside China and elsewhere. And some viewed it as a decision to maintain relations with the Chinese government to the detriment of its customer base.

Intellectual Property

In China, Apple also finds itself in a far more dangerous environment than it might like. As a feature in The Verge illustrated last year, Apple copycats are everywhere in China. Chinese companies build devices that are near-clones to the iPhone and come with software that works in much the same way. But those devices are also much cheaper than the iPhones and often get sympathy from the Chinese government and courts. Along the way, Chinese consumers buy them in droves and Apple is left to accept that and move on.

Price Tags

But more than anything, Apple appears to be tone deaf on price. Like it or not, the iPhone is really expensive. And in China, where the economy is in trouble and the middle class is finding less cash to spend, the company’s decision to price its iPhones so high makes its handsets far less appealing.

The simplest move for Apple last year when it unveiled its iPhone XS, iPhone XS Max, and iPhone XR would have been to keep its cheap, budget-friendly iPhone SE on store shelves. It didn’t. And people around the globe were forced to either spend hundreds of dollars more on a new iPhone or stick with what they have now. At $350, the iPhone SE was a bargain. At $1,099 to start, the iPhone XS Max is anything but a bargain.

This is all not to say that Apple isn’t suffering from problems in China that relate to trade and a slumping economy—it is. But Apple’s China problems have been in the works for years. And many of them have been self-induced.