近藤麻理惠能让快时尚行业发展减速吗？

Netflix新推出的节目《近藤麻理惠教你做整理》（Tidying Up With Marie Kondo）首次播出就让人“怦然心动”，在社交媒体上掀起热潮，可能还会影响市场销售趋势。

节目灵感源自近藤麻理惠发明的“KonMari”整理法，这种整理和收纳生活空间的方法强调感性价值，节目播出反响良好，对观众的影响不仅包括鼓励他们清理橱柜，他们可能还会在立下新年愿望清单之余反思自己的消费习惯。

近藤麻效应将极简主义带入消费主义的最前沿，无论是购买服装、家居还是书籍和营养品。谷歌趋势（Google Trends）的数据显示，上述节目播出时，近藤麻、KonMari、甚至“叠衬衫”的搜索量都达到了突破值。假设节目热度持续（再加上Netflix爱给节目制作续集），近藤麻理惠的影响力真的有可能让消费者减少购买数量，提升购买质量。

虽然这或许能缓解消费者精神和经济上的压力，但零售商却不会高兴——特别是快时尚类零售商，如H＆M、Zara、Forever 21等。

韦德布什证券（Wedbush Securities）的高级股票研究分析师简·雷丁表示，“现在正是转型期，我们认为从“快时尚”转向“慢时尚”的势头绝不只是一时的风潮。”

Netflix sparked joy…as well as social media buzz, memes, and possibly sales trends with its recent debut of Tidying Up With Marie Kondo.

Inspired by Kondo’s “KonMari” method for decluttering and organizing living spaces with an emphasis on sentimental value, the feel-good show is striking a connection with viewers, not only inspiring them to purge their closets, but perhaps rethink their spending habits beyond just New Year’s resolutions.

The Kondo Effect is bringing minimalism to the forefront of consumerism from clothing and home décor to books and nutrition. Searches related to Kondo, KonMari, and even “folding shirts” hit breakout levels in conjunction with the Netflix release, based on Google Trends data. Assuming the show’s continued popularity (and Netflix’s fondness for renewing many of its programs for subsequent seasons), there’s a real possibility that Kondo’s influence could push consumers toward fewer, higher-quality investment pieces.

While this might spark mental and financial relief for consumers, it’s not joyful for retailers—especially those in fast fashion, such as H&M, Zara, and Forever 21.

“We’re now in a time of transformation, and we see the trend towards ‘slow fashion’ away from ‘fast fashion’ as much more powerful than a fad,” says Jen Redding, a senior equity research analyst at Wedbush Securities.

当然，近藤麻理惠不是推动变革的唯一因素。“快时尚的光环似乎已经褪色，”雷丁说。“因为千禧一代比前几代人更重视体验、环境和人权问题，快时尚正在被取而代之。”雷丁解释说，过去十年，快时尚严重破坏了零售行业，如今消费者对一次性廉价服装的兴趣减弱了。

并不是说时尚行业所有中端零售品牌都会在2019年遭遇下滑。雷丁以采用直销模式的天才企业Everlane为例，说明产品质量更好的新兴服饰零售商能适应任何年景。尽管传说中的断舍离有种种好处，却并非所有人都认为近藤麻效应会对美国消费者产生足够广泛的影响，能长期让零售业销售发生重大变化。“在不远的过去，这种程度的文化转变通常是世界大战等极端外部事件的结果。”全国商业和零售房地产公司Transwestern的合伙人卡伦·芬尼根说。

虽然近藤麻理惠本人可能建议人们把旧书整理出售或捐赠，但她的第一本书《怦然心动的人生整理魔法》（The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up）重新出现在了销售排行榜上，出版五年后再次登上《纽约时报》（New York Times）畅销书榜单。五年来，该书译成了40多种语言，销量超过700万册。（财富中文网）

本文另一版本刊载于《财富》杂志2019年2月刊，题为《近藤麻经济学》。

译者：Agatha

Kondo, of course, isn’t the only change agent here. “Fast fashion looks to have lost its luster,” Redding says. “It’s being displaced as Millennials place growing value on experiences, environmental, and human rights issues than in recent generations before it.” Fast fashion wreaked havoc in retail over the last decade, Redding explains, and consumers are now less interested in cheap, disposable clothing.

That’s not to say all mid-market fashion retailers can expect declines in 2019. Redding cited direct-to-consumer wunderkind Everlane as one example of newer retailers promising better-made apparel fit for any season. And for all the purported benefits of downsizing, not everyone sees the Kondo effect as having a sufficiently broad enough impact on the U.S. consumer base to materially affect retail sales over the long term. “In the recent past, a cultural shift of this magnitude was usually the result of an extreme external event, such as global war,” says Cullen Finnegan, an associate at Transwestern, a national commercial and retail real estate firm.

And while Kondo, herself, might suggest rounding up old books for resale or donation, her first title, The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up, is experiencing a resurgence on the sales charts, returning to the New York Times bestseller list after being published five years ago. It has since sold over seven million copies in more than 40 languages.

A version of this article appears in the February 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline “The KonMari Economy.”