弱者的优势：2011美国黑马终极盘点

    《帮助》（The Help）一书的作者凯瑟琳‧史托基特。这位名不见经传的作者“尽管被拒绝了60次，但依然锲而不舍地为她的小说寻找出版商，表现出了超强的意志力。”这本书出版于2010年，但史托基特之所以入选本年度的榜单，是因为2011年根据这部小说改编的电影获得了1.69亿美元的票房，进而成为本年度最卖座的影片之一。而且，“她写的还是弱势者的故事。”

    纽约州的同性婚姻支持者。他们在2011年的胜利说明了肖瓦尔特所称“手眼通天的皈依者”的重要性。弱势者要想在政治领域获胜，就必须说服少数握有权势、犹豫不决甚至站在对立阵营的人支持自己的事业。共和党大佬保罗•辛格尔、卡利夫•阿斯内斯和丹•勒布先后加盟，并说服几位关键的州议员之后，这项运动终于达成所愿，获得了立法通过。

    茶党。2010年，茶党改变了国会的格局，之后，“他们的领袖依然让团队注重结果，即选举认同茶党理念的议员，”肖瓦尔特指出。“茶党继续影响着华盛顿政界谈话、制定战略和投票的方式。”

    那么，占领华尔街运动呢？肖瓦尔特说，这场运动是她在2012年重点观察的弱势者。但到目前为止，占领华尔街运动缺乏一个连贯的行动计划。此外，它还需要赢得“手眼通天的皈依者”支持。

    “关于如何影响当权者的众多研究表明，能说会道的领袖往往能给人们留下深刻的印象，”她说。“另外，如果占领者能像茶党人那样，在集会之后将场地收拾干净，或许也可以帮助他们赢得公众的支持。”

    Kathryn Stockett, author of The Help. The previously unknown writer "showed grit in pursuing a publisher for her novel despite 60 rejections." The book came out in 2010, but Stockett makes the list this year because the 2011 movie version grossed over $169 million, making it one of the year's top hits -- and besides, "she writes about underdogs."

    New York gay marriage advocates. Their victory in 2011 illustrates the importance of what Showalter calls "connected converts." For underdogs to prevail in politics, they need to persuade a few powerful people, who've been undecided or opposed in the past, to take up their cause. When Republican Party bigwigs Paul Singer, Cliff Asness, and Dan Loeb got on board and helped sway key state legislators, the movement achieved its goal of legalization.

    The Tea Party. After changing the composition of Congress in 2010, "their team leaders keep them focused on results, that is, on electing lawmakers who agree with them," Showalter notes. "Tea Partiers continue to affect how the powerful in Washington talk, strategize, and vote."

    What about Occupy Wall Street? Showalter says the movement is on her radar as an underdog to watch in 2012, but so far, OWS lacks a coherent action plan and, moreover, needs to win "connected converts" over to its side.

    "The research on how to influence people in power all shows that they are impressed by an articulate leader," she notes. "It might also help win public support if the Occupiers, like the Tea Party people, cleaned up after their rallies."