决定未来职业发展的七大趋势

本文明确的七大趋势必将对各类职业、创业机会、未来员工所需的技能产生影响。文中对未来大趋势的预判旨在帮你了解可能会受哪些影响，以及今后需要为职业道路做怎样的准备。

全球化：你真的不是一个人在战斗！

当前全球商业正在发生重大转变。咨询公司麦肯锡预计，全球半数大企业都将把总部设在新兴市场，如巴西、印度和东欧国家。由于世界范围内竞争的压力和其他因素，2000年曾入选《财富》美国500强的企业中，竟然有四成以上在2010年都落榜了，新上位的都是业界新贵和科技企业。

改变工作的定义：灵活适应完成新任务

什么是工作？在网上可以搜索工作的定义就不难发现，已经几乎没人会局限于谷歌搜索引擎提供的第一种定义：一个稳定的带薪岗位。当然，我们干活拿薪水，但只从一个收入来源，还要稳定？

如今的工作更像是谷歌的第二种定义：一项任务或者某种工作的一部分，特别是带薪的那种。眼下的新常态是，同时将多个职位合并在一起，或者聘请自由职业者完成一系列工作。

由于工作量不断变化，无论劳动者的技能和意愿是否完全匹配，都要灵活适应完成任务。83%以上的高管告诉我们，今后几年计划增加临时的兼职人员或者工作时间灵活的员工。这意味着，企业会为某个具体项目聘用具备相关技能的人才，而不再提供全职岗位。

工作完成的方式也在迅速转变。随着工作时间和个人时间相互交织，工作日和私人时间的界限也越来越模糊。工作不再指代某个场所，而是指一件事。

复杂性：越复杂，越挑战

企业和个人都越来越复杂。在企业方面，随着各国政府监管层级累加，复杂性随之增加。而不同客户的独特需求，也将进一步增加这种复杂性。

在这种情况下，企业唯有精简结构，进一步简化流程、系统，重振企业文化，才能够在未来拥有竞争优势。

而对于个人而言，一方面要把握复杂形势，另一方面要平衡各方面不断增长的需求。斯坦福大学的研究者就指出了影响员工整体健康和幸福的许多压力因素，包括长时间工作、对职业的不安全感、工作与家庭生活的冲突等。

相关研究一致认为，这些大趋势将确立未来职场的格局。一些趋势也许看来和日常生活无关，还有些趋势可能正在经历。但所有趋势都有可能完全改变未来的工作方式，还有可能令很多人，甚至某些领域的专家彻底过时。

人口结构变化：退休年龄整整延长了10岁！

在全球多个经济体，医疗保健的进步和出生率下降已经导致人口老龄化、劳动力规模萎缩。随着国民寿命和工作年限延长，预计当前大部分劳动人口的平均退休年龄将为66岁。这整整延长了10岁！二十年前评价退休年龄是57岁。

在大部分国家，千禧一代是目前人数最多的劳动群体。他们通过社交媒体积极发声，日渐改变了职场文化。

数据爆炸：重新会学挖掘新机会

专家预计，2009至2020年，数据总量将增长43倍。一些数据是过去的存量内容，可以很方便地导入这些数据库，另外一些日渐增长的数据则是非结构化的，例如来自Twitter、Instagram、Facebook、Vine等社交媒体网站的数据。

认真挖掘数据并从中找出消费趋势的机构，将成为未来市场的领军人物。

新兴科技：机器人来了！

在众多新兴的科技之中，机器人是尤为值得一提的。到2030年，预计日本人口三分之一超过65岁，每五人中有一人年逾75岁，老年人看护的需求极大。这就难怪日本在研发服务型机器人方面走在最前面了。

在一家2015年新开的酒店里，一款名为Actroid的仿真机器人已经上岗，为客人们提供入住服务。此外，一些护理机构里也正兴起让机器人参与看护。这些都意味着护理行业许多入门级工作将不再需要人类。

气候变化：每个人都在碳排放计算之列

气候变化未来将对经济产生很大影响。经合组织预计，到2050年，全世界40%以上的人口都将遭遇严重的水资源压力，而面临洪灾或者旱灾风险的资产价值，更是会增长至创纪录的高位。

节省资源是一项社会责任，也有益于节省成本。政府控制能耗、浪费、漏水、城市拥堵、运输效率、土地退化、货运影响等其他因素的监管措施越来越多，企业应该适应形势，允许员工远程工作，这不但可以削减对硬件设施的需求，也能够帮助企业尽量减少碳排放。（财富中文网）

本文节选自卡里•威利尔德和芭芭拉•米丝蒂克合著的《伸展力：如何为未来的职场做好准备》。

译者：Pessy

校对：夏林

We have identified seven megatrends that will certainly have an impact on the types of jobs, entrepreneurial opportunities, and skills needed for workers in the future. This big-picture review is meant to help you see how they might affect you, and what you will need to do to prepare for the workplace of tomorrow.

Globalization

A major shift in where business is conducted is occurring now. McKinsey estimates that half of the world’s largest companies will be headquartered in what are now emerging markets, such as Brazil, India, and eastern European countries. Pressure from global competition and other factors resulted in over 40% of the companies that were in the Fortune 500 in 2000 falling off the list by 2010. These were replaced largely by new global entrants and technology companies.

Redefined Jobs

What is a job? Look over a few definitions on the web and it’s easy to see that few of us are still limited to Google’s first meaning: “a paid position of regular employment.” Sure, we have paid work, but from only one source and in a regular fashion?

Instead, the definition of a job looks more like the second meaning from Google: “a task or piece of work, especially one that is paid.” Piecing together multiple gigs at the same time or freelancing in a series of work-for-hire roles is a new normal. The nature of fluctuating workloads requires moving to meet those needs, whether your skills and motivation match or not. Over 83% of executives told us that they plan on increasing their use of contingent, part-time, or flexible workers in the next few years. Those with in-demand skills will be hired to accomplish one specific project, rather than given a full-time position.

The nature of how work gets done is rapidly shifting. Even the lines between workday and personal time are blurring, since work and personal time blend and overlap. Work is no longer a place, but a thing.

Complexity

Complexity is increasing for both organizations and individuals. At the organizational level, complexity multiplies with layers upon layers of government regulations, in multiple countries, combined with requirements from customers with their own unique specifications.

Organizations that can streamline and simplify structures, processes, systems, and cultures will have the competitive advantage in the future.

At the individual level, the need to master this complexity and balance competing demands is also on the increase. Stanford researchers identified a number of stressors that affect overall health and wellness for employees, including long hours, job insecurity, work-family conflict, and others.

Studies agree resoundingly that these megatrends are forging the working landscape of the future. Some trends may seem far removed from your everyday world; others you may already be experiencing. All of them have the potential to change the way we work in substantial ways, threatening to make many people and even experts in their fields obsolete.

Demographics Shifts

In many economies around the world, advances in healthcare and declining birth rates have resulted in a population that is graying and a workforce that is shrinking. People are living and working longer, with the average retirement age for most people working now expected to be 66, up from 57 two decades ago.

Millennials are now the largest generation in the workplace in most countries, and their voices, connected through social media, will increasingly alter the workplace culture.

Explosion of Data

Experts estimate that from 2009 to 2020, data will grow 4300%. That data will be in the form of content from the past that can be readily structured into a database, and will also increasingly include unstructured data such as that found in social media sites like Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Vine, and so on.

Organizations that can mine this data to reveal customer trends will lead the markets of the future.

Emerging Technologies

One of the many emerging technologies worthy of mention is robotics. Japan is expecting one in three of its population to be over the age of 65 by 2030, and one in five to be over 75, creating a major requirement for the care of the elderly. Not surprisingly then, Japan is on the leading edge of using robots in service roles. A hotel opened in Japan in 2015 with lifelike robots, called actroids, serving as the check-in staff. Aid assistance in nursing facilities is on the horizon, meaning many of the entry-level jobs in those areas will become obsolete.

Climate change

Climate change will have a strong economic impact in the future. The OECD anticipates that by 2050, more than 40% of the world’s population will live under severe water stress, resulting in floods or drought that, combined, can put the economic value of assets at risk at record highs.

Becoming efficient with resources is socially responsible and cost beneficial. Organizations need to adapt to increasing regulations controlling energy efficiency, waste, water leakage, urban congestion, transportation efficiency, land degradation, freight impact, and other factors. Allowing employees to work virtually also reduces the need for facilities and helps organizations minimize their carbon footprints.

This article is excerpted from STRETCH: How to Future-Proof Yourself for Tomorrow’s Workplace by Karie Willyerd and Barbara Mistick. Copyright 2016 by Karie Willyerd and Barbara Mistick. Published by Wiley; used by permission. All rights reserved. This book is available at all bookstores and online booksellers.