周二，凯雷投资集团(The Carlyle Group)同意收购老虎全球基金（Tiger Global Management）支持的新兴市场股票投资管理公司ESG 55%的股权，令IPO猜测升温。而且，凯雷着重于南美(特别是巴西)投资的新私募股权基金也已结束募集，募资约10亿美元；据美国CNBC电视台报告，凯雷正在与潜在投资者接洽，可能将募集高达12亿美元的资金。

    这些消息不足为奇，关于凯雷要上市的传言由来已久，甚至要早于百仕通集团(Blackstone Group)。对于一家期待上市的私募股权公司，多元化是关键。大型的纯私募股权公司，如Warburg Pincus或Hellman & Friedman，事实上并无这样的打算(而且，可能也没兴趣)。

    事实上，目前具备上市条件的公司为数并不算多(除了陷入困境的投资基金商Oaktree，早有传言称该公司在准备上市)。此外，人们经常提及美国德太投资有限公司（TPG Capital），但该公司并没有太多的非私募股权业务。而且，该公司一直通过向主权财富基金出售少量管理公司股权的方式，为创始人带来流动性。没错，百仕通和凯雷也有类似做法——可能还会承诺通过IPO提供流动性——但TPG的此类举动可能是结果，而非手段。

    “可能到一定阶段，机构投资者会向TPG这样的公司施压，要求其上市，但也有可能他们就是将其视为稳定的费用收入流，”塔克商学院私募股权和创业中心（the Center for Private Equity and Entrepreneurship at Tuck School of Business）主任柯林•布莱登表示。

    如果有的话，下一个上市的公司会是谁（我们说的主要是美国公司)？我很想听听您的高见。是贝恩资本(Bain Capital)呢? 还是银湖资本（Silver Lake）? 我看不出，但您也许知道……

    The Carlyle Group ramped up IPO speculation yesterday, by agreeing to acquire a 55% stake in ESG, an emerging markets equities manager backed by Tiger Global Management. It also closed on around $1 billion in new private equity funds focused on South America (particularly Brazil), and CNBC reports that the firm is meeting with potential underwriters for an offering that could raise as much as $1.2 billion.

    No huge surprises to any of this, since I'm pretty sure Carlyle was rumored to be going public even before Blackstone Group (BX) was rumored to be going public. And, if you're a PE firm looking to IPO, the key is diversification. Large pure-play PE shops like Warburg Pincus or Hellman & Friedman have virtually no shot (and, possibly, no interest).

    In fact, I don't see many other legitimate candidates out there (outside of distressed firm Oaktree, which already is rumored to be prepping an offering). TPG Capital gets mentioned a lot, but it doesn't have too many non-PE business lines. Moreover, it has been generating founder liquidity by selling off small management companies stakes to sovereign wealth funds. It's true that both Blackstone and Carlyle did something similar – and perhaps promised liquidity via IPO – but TPG's moves may the an end rather than a means.

    "It's possible that those institutional investors will at some point pressure a firm like TPG to go public, but they also might just view it as a constant stream of fee revenue," says Colin Blaydon, director of the Center for Private Equity and Entrepreneurship at Tuck School of Business.

    Curious to hear who, if anyone, you think might be next (talking U.S. firms, primarily, here). Bain Capital? Silver Lake? I don't see it, but maybe you do…